zombie market

As I was drifting off to sleep last night, it occured to me that this real estate market (at least, the participants) has a lot of characteristics of The Undead, or a Zombie.

Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)
zom·bie
–noun 1. (in voodoo) a. the body of a dead person given the semblance of life, but mute and will-less, by a supernatural force, usually for some evil purpose.

Wallstreet Words
zombie
A company that remains in business even though it is technically bankrupt and almost surely headed for the graveyard.

Jargon File
zombie
n. [Unix] A process that has died but has not yet relinquished its process table slot (because the parent process hasn't executed a `wait(2)' for it yet).

(definitions from dictionary.com)

It just won't die, and it cannot be stopped.

such negativity...

I have alluded to fractional reserve banking in the past, and David sent me an e-mail a while ago wondering about it. I don't have a lot of time these days to delve into it (or much of anything beyond me super cool kid), but I have understood that it was at most 5% (in Canada), and maybe as low as...gulp...0%. Makes you feel good about paying interest, eh?

But I stumbled upon this article that had in its first paragraph -

"The banks have no reserves other than debt."

Negative reserves? We are really fecked. What if I want to pull my million bucks (I wish) out of the bank in Loons? Is the bank going to tell me that they have no money - let alone my money?

It's a short article to read, with references to the New World Order and the Amero in the comments. Here is a snippet -

The reserves have collapsed - the banking system itself is bankrupt. Credit crunch is a very nice way of saying this, credit crisis is starting to sound a little more accurate.

Ah, but the Federal Reserve has saved us from a bank run! Well, they've put up $140 billion (plus whatever they're adding this week) so the economy could have $20 billion in loans - this is an amazingly ineffective & convoluted means of generating financial activity.

The reserves backing your checking or savings account are all owed to the Federal Reserve and the banks don't have the capital necessary to generate enough profit to ever reasonably pay this debt back.

It's a very twisted illusion that we live in.

rebel sell

I had an e-mail asking whether there was any gain in waiting for the Canada Line to finish in order to sell a nearby house. Will there be greater appreciation? I think that appreciation would already be priced in.

I've always been a rebel though, and would cut off my nose to spite my face.

What do you think?

On 11/04/2008, Ben wrote:
Hi there, first of all I'd like to thank you for creating the blog. I really enjoy reading the valuable information and insight that I am currently lacking on the RE market. However, so far I can't really find much posts/commentaries on the affect RAV (Canada Line) will have on nearby real estate units. Please advise if possible since I'm not certain whether to sell my detached home now or wait until the RAV station (the one beside Oakridge mall) near my detached house is finished to get a price appreciation (if any at all). Thank you, it'd be really great to hear what your take is on this matter.

Cheers,
Ben


van unreal wrote:


Hi Ben,

Thanks for writing.

I couldn't say for sure, but my best, common sense opinion is that if the proximity of the RAV line to your house is going to have an effect on its value, that would already be realized. The line is, after all, already under construction, and is very unlikely to not be completed. The selling point would be something like "Just two blocks from the Oakridge Canada Line Station (to be completed August 2008...or whenever)".

By all reports, price appreciation is slowing drastically, as are sales. This summer could very well be the beginning of the end. You may just end up dropping the price repeatedly for the next year. I would say "SELL!".

I am not an expert, and I have been wrong for years, so my advice is worth what you pay for it, but why try to squeeze an extra $10k out of a $700k (or whatever it's worth now) house. Before too long, it will be worth $350k, and wouldn't you kick yourself then?

Good luck - whatever you decide.

solipsist

fool on the hill

the pope already wrote about Garth Turner's new book: Greater Fool - the troubled future of real estate, and there is a blog that goes with it. He did a post on Vancouver (you have to check it out), and I was compelled to reproduce some of his commentary here.

I own a downtown [westend] Vancouver condo in a very good building within 3 blocks of the seawall and many other amenities. At 750 sq ft. it is pefect for a young couple or retirees. The market value is currently about 440K and I have about 110K equity. Is this type of property going to be affected to the same degree as other properties? Would you advise to sell now and wait out the coming crash?
Thank you in advance,
Al

You have a condo the size of my garage, worth $440,000, with condo fees, property taxes and other carrying costs, and you ask if this is a solid long-term investment in an over-valued market teetering at the tipping point of unaffordability? Are you serious?

This is exactly the kind of unit which has an uncertain future since there are scads of competing condos in the area, and a limited universe of “young couples or retirees” able or silly enough to buy one of them. Unless your unit is unique, with a full water view or the latest in amenities, or on the trendiest block, then there’s no reason to believe it will escape the coming correction in Vancouver prices. Get used to it. Or get out.

What is remarkable, is that Turner is an MP in Ottawa, and is quite vocal about the impending downturn in the economy, and the concomitant RE melt-down.

Mr. Turner is best known (lately) for being kicked out of the Conservative party by Herr Harper for being...too vocal. He sat as an Independent for a while, and since joined with the Liberals. He also was an MP in the short-lived Kim Campbell gov't (hey - she's from Vancouver) after losing a bid for the PC leadership to Ms. Campbell. He had a regular column in the Toronto Sun, and has written numerous articles published in other major Canadian daily newspapers.

Turner also has a political blog (link at Greater Fool), that is filled with mostly tedious comments, and Turner's reportage of events on Parliament Hill. Mr. Turner is a great advocate of Mr. Turner. Vexatious, and often vituperative, but both of his blogs are worth checking out.

I just like him because Charles McVety despises him.

i guess

macho slob commented on his disappointment with the disconnect between the blog's title, and some of the recent subject matter. Fair enough, I guess.

Here is some RE schtuff for ye;

I read over at the pope's place (from awum - from Landcor - @ Rob Chipman's) that East Van. condos are crashing - by 15%! It's about time. Check it out at the pope's - there is a graph, and everything! I wonder what that will do to the "W".

Meanwhile, The Province has the headline - Housing market to sink after Games: Expert.

the Olympics will create 3,000 new housing units, which will flood the market.

He said the underlying conditions for a bubble-burst are arriving -- income stagnation, rising interest rates and over-supply of units.

The latest figures show that it takes 79.2 per cent of the average Metro Vancouver income to buy a 1,500-square-foot house, an 18-year-high.

and what happened then?

Metro Vancouver's median income of $59,000 wouldn't qualify for a mortgage on the average house, now $648,592.

Ere, no shite Sherlock.

On the CBC News World 30 minutes ago - 'Toronto home sales down 2% in January, 7% in February, and 22% in March'. Realtors (the only ones at the open houses) blame bad weather.

"Don't worry Maggie, said Seamus incoherently, It'll soon be Summer".

Indeed.

So yeah, I've not been writing specifically of Vancouver Real Estate lately, but what is there to say about it any more? You all know as well as I do that things have been out of line for a long, long time, and we have expected each Spring to spring the trap. Maybe it is this Spring.

We are only really interested in the bottom though. Right?

In the mean time, it's interesting to look at the bigger picture, is it not?

red pill, blue pill

I came across this article, and found it to be "very interesting". The comment below is something that I have alluded to here (and elsewhere) before.

'Bush Caused the Financial Market Meltdown'
Washington ignored the lessons of the bank failures of the 1930s

Not a mistake, not incompetence, its the plan.
"It also ignored the lessons of the bank failures of the 1930s"

I would say "It learned from the lessons of the bank failures of the 1930s"

A crisis of this magnitude is not accomplished by ignoring history, but by learning from it. The Plan is to destroy the US dollar, to bankrupt its citizens forcing them to abandon or sell off their property, and to allow those who designed this collapse to buy their property at discount rates.

This is not a mistake, this is not incompetence, this is the Plan.

Have you never noticed that successive governments at all levels do as much as they can to take from the citizenry's pockets only to line those of their friends, and their own? Let us eat cake, or caka...

Governments are quite good at orchestrating all kinds of complex operations, why not one like this global bubble? Politicians tend to be lawyers and business people for the most part. It may seem to have a tin-foil wrapping as an idea, but really, corporations exist for only one reason, and that is ever-increasing profits. Problem is, we live in a closed system. Everything is finite.

Are we being marched back to feudalism? We might not notice as we sit and watch our favourite idol show (right after CTV/Fox news), load up the IPod, yell at the kids playing with their Wii-Wiis to keep it down while we watch food, fuel, housing, and all of our costs directly related to survival sky rocket. Meanwhile, the cost of all of those distractions keeps falling.

The Matrix written by Andy Wachowski & Larry Wachowski

Morpheus: I imagine that right now you're feeling a bit like Alice. Tumbling down the rabbit hole?
Neo: You could say that.
Morpheus: I can see it in your eyes. You have the look of a man who accepts what he sees because he's expecting to wake up. Ironically, this is not far from the truth. Do you believe in fate, Neo?
Neo: No.
Morpheus: Why not?
Neo: 'Cause I don't like the idea that I'm not in control of my life.
Morpheus: I know exactly what you mean. Let me tell you why you're here. You're here because you know something. What you know, you can't explain. But you feel it. You felt it your entire life. That there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there. Like a splinter in your mind -- driving you mad. It is this feeling that has brought you to me. Do you know what I'm talking about?
Neo: The Matrix?
Morpheus: Do you want to know what it is?
(Neo nods his head.)
Morpheus: The Matrix is everywhere, it is all around us. Even now, in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window, or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work, or when go to church or when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Morpheus: That you are a slave, Neo. Like everyone else, you were born into bondage, born inside a prison that you cannot smell, taste, or touch. A prison for your mind. (long pause, sighs) Unfortunately, no one can be told what the Matrix is. You have to see it for yourself. This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.

Red pill, Blue pill.

explaining sub-prime

It's the alligators, and me arse...a cheap post is the result. Hopefully better than no post!

Adrian sent me this picture explaining sub-prime a while ago, and I am just getting to posting it now. (Thanks Adrian!)

click picture to enlargeGRAPHIC: By Laura Stanton - The Washington Post - March 14, 2008

grab bag #

I heard on CBC today that Councilor TimStevenson is introducing a motion to tax empty (read; speculator/flipper) houses at a higher rate. It will probably get shot down in Council, but quelle idee. There are other aspects to the motion as well - such as mandatory inspections (for health and safety) for all rental properties. Also not a bad idea.

- An anti-vacancy by-law, which would increase the levels of taxation on vacant properties being held for the purposes of speculation;

- The consideration of past compliance with building standards and owner history when granting new development permits;

- A publicly accessible database to monitor evictions throughout the city as well as conversions to student housing, and would provide a list of buildings protected under the SRA regulations; and

- A downtown eastside planning office, whose sole responsibility would be to inform local residents of planned developments, and facilitate meaningful community participation in neighbourhood development..

I found a link to this on Vision Vancouver's website

Some of the usual suspects (whoever they are) said that it is ridiculous and unworkable. I guess most things that are for the good of society tend to be seen that way. Let's face it, it was rampant greed and speculation that drove the market up - to the detriment of this city and its citizens. Not just those that can't, or won't pay such ludicrous prices to rent from the bank, but those that would/could, and shackled themselves with a lifetime of debt. Sorry about all the restaurants and retail when there is no disposable income left. Sorry about the city.

whither the crash?

OK! It's Spring now! Time for the Spring surge. Question is, will it be a surge in listings? A surge in sales? a surge in prices? All three? Things are so bent, that I almost don't care anymore.

I had no power on the week-end, so no computer, no Internet, no blogs, no music. It was actually kind of nice, but I was truly expecting to hook up today, and read that everything was crash. Bummer.

Last week I saw on CBC that flippin' mobile homes on rented pads were selling for $400 Gs in Fort McMurray. I guess that things could be worse here, but at least in Fort Mc... there are lots of Newfoundlanders. We have none.

It must end sometime. Please tell me that it will.

n is for neville...

...who died of ennui



I'm getting bored.

When will it start? Where will it end?

Was that "little" stock market stumble of today profit-taking, a small correction, or the beginning of the end? Do you think it will continue tomorrow? Betcha it does.

I liked this line quoted here yesterday - re-born Robber-Barons do not suffer fools or casual opportunists-instead they eat these 'hangers-on' that would have cluttered up their kill. Time to reap the harvest?

Okay, I forgot, Vancouver is...immune, or something. mohican busted the land shortage thing into 5 Easy Pieces. Well, we do have comparatively good weather. The Olympics are likely to be a bust though;

the Olympic Winter Games > Lake Placid, New York, U.S., 1932

The worldwide economic depression cast a shadow over the third Winter Olympics. Only 17 countries attended, represented by some 250 athletes, over half of whom were from Canada and the United States. The Games generated little revenue, and organizers, who had built a new stadium and bobsled run, suffered huge financial losses.

Encyclopedia Britannica

I have heard the words "depression" and "nineteen twenty-nine" quite a bit today - and in the MSM, no less. Weird though, I still see people cruising "For Sale" signs.

I have a feeling that Real Estate is going to be dropped as a topic of polite conversation very soon.

I'll be Blogging the Apocalypse (if I can afford to pay for electricity!).

low-pressure trough

Bear-Stearns price graph.

A low-pressure trough is sometimes called a depression. I have been talking of an impending depression for years (not here, but elsewhere, and verbally). Most people just thought that I was a crank, but it is starting to come to fruition.

Bear-Stearns was trading at around $70/share last week, but today, sold off the whole shebang for $2/unit. I'm sure that a lot of people thought that BS was different. Bear-Stearns is just one banking house in trouble, there are more to come - by all accounts.

I know that a high CDN dollar is problematic for exports to the US, but our dollar slipped below par today. That is bad news for us. We do not want to follow the US to the bottom, but it appears that we will. All those fools that bought RE at exorbitant prices in the last few years are going to be in big trouble when the carbon tax comes in, property taxes sky-rocket to pay for the Olympic scam, TransLink is putting in a new tax, Hydro rates to increase some 25%, job losses coming soon, etc.

Here is an interesting article at rense.com proclaiming that Black Friday is back. The article is a bit long to keep one's attention, and is kind of spectacular in writing style - it is also aimed more at the US reader, but there is some stuff of interest about halfway through.

There is one more player in this quagmire of failure and defeat that has yet to show its face. That is the face of those that have supported all this criminality and horror with their greed and with their interminable silence throughout this most treacherous chapter in all of American history.

These are the would-be emulators of those in power, regardless of how corrupt or jaded the individual criminal-figures might actually be. These are vulture capitalists in-waiting, not yet fully fledged, but still very eager to find a way to get their own piece of the corpse that was the USA. They are the reason that so many have remained silent and complicit with all that has transpired. In reality these seemingly ordinary people, have made it possible for the owners to get this far without a violent public backlash.

Now while the real players have begun to pull their money out of everything, it is these small-time opportunists who will be left with nothing, because they weren't smart enough to get out before the major dominoes began to fall. Now they, along with us, will be left holding the bag and screaming about "what could have been!" Because whenever any major 'bubble' bursts, the key players not only escape, but they always have made huge new fortunes from each new chaos-while the suckers lose it all.

This time there are literally millions of suckers that did not study the Stock-Market Crash of 1929, so they've just been waiting in the wings to be crushed by this burden: which was always part of this design that was created to insure that this failure will be total!

The lesser beings that sought to profit..."believed implicitly" that they would end up on the winning side with their own smart-money profits as a bonus. But re-born Robber-Barons do not suffer fools or casual opportunists-instead they eat these 'hangers-on' that would have cluttered up their kill. So, once again only the few will profit, while all the rest of us will pay because 'the run on the banks' has begun and the Fed can't print money fast enough to stop this, if it reaches beyond the business class and into the general population. (emboldening and clipping mine)

I think that Rense may be a bit sensationalistic - like Alex Jones, but still speaks to the truth.

Things are going to get nasty. Forget schadenfreude, we are all going to hurt. Get rid of debt, and stash some cash while you can.

good question, and a rant

David sent me the following e-mail:

subject: the elephant in the room

Still trying to puzzle this out.

Banks are failing, not due to lack of regulation (Mish). But the elephant of Fractional reserve lending.

Okay I get that, what I don't get is how can a bank lose liquidity when they never had it in the first place.

They make 'money' by typing it into the computer. Yes, that's simplified, but the money never was there, so how can they lose nothing?

And yet us the 'great unwashed' will 'bail-out' the banks. Would love to see a discussion on your blog around this, maybe someone can enlighten me.

David poses a salient question, that I cannot readily answer - but to say that so much of what we are taught about the world is a bunch of bullshit.

How can a private bank (The Federal Reserve) have such control over Americans' money, and their lives? They just pulled $200 billion out of their asses to "save" the American economy. Where did that $200 bill. come from? That's easy - from interest charged on the (imaginary) trillions that America owes, and so on - back to the days of JC and the boys.

Why did they kill JFK? Maybe because he was going to release America from the strangle-hold of the Fed. Reserve, and re-introduce a government-backed "green back"?

Why is our government - through the Bank of Canada - buying frozen ABCP? I wouldn't buy it, would you? Ah, but we are buying it, and we will be bailing out all the Fucked Buyers, and CIBC, and, and, while we are impolitely raped in many other ways - like carbon taxes, property taxes, and on, and on.

And you thought that feudalism, slavery, oligarchy, and royalty were dead?

Collectively, we are a bunch of under-educated, but over-inculcated idiots. I can never get the image of the deported-to-camps Jews, Communists, Artists, etc. during WWII, who carried their suitcases with them in the belief that everything would be ok.

Man's inhumanity to man has not lessened in any way, and the pendulum is swinging back to very dark days. The Depression was no joke, and we are headed to something much worse.

I hope that people can figure out how to eat granite.

speaking of spooks

I mentioned in the last post that there are rumoured to be spooks skulking about that Podcast-adrift project. Spooks are believed in by every culture, and pretty much by all, but for the most skeptical. One reason that those UFO pod houses are still there is that the locals believe that you are playing with danger by tearing down haunted houses.

The aboriginal cultures believe that their ancestors' spirits inhabit the land. I worked in the north in silviculture for ten years, and I have seen and heard some strange things, and I would tend to agree with the belief. I recall working in one valley where the anger at the pillage was palpable. I was not unique in noticing it.

The Rogers Mansion (now Romano's Macaroni Bar and Grill) downtown is well known to be haunted. I personally know the painter who encountered the spook, and he did not actually run out as reported in the article. He finished what he was doing. I also did work there, and we always worked at night. One night I was working with a friend when we heard crashing and banging from the kitchen area. We went and investigated, but found nothing. We were the only ones in the building, and we had all of the doors locked. Strange, but true.

I know a guy that used to live in Amityville, New York, and he said that while the movie sensationalized it (no kidding), there was a very strong basis of truth in it.

I have lived in a house with a spook for the last 8 years. Lots of weird stuff goes on, but we have a kind of agreement not to cast her out if she doesn't mess with us. There used to be two of them here, but one has left. I've only seen it out of the corner of my eye, but my mother-in-law, amongst others, has seen it full on. It's creepy, and I don't like it that much, but we still live here. I have a few pictures of it too, but I can't find them before press time.

So what to do if you buy a haunted house? If it's your house now, go ahead and help it on it's way (I have no suggestions on how to do that). Should you disclose the fact that you have spooks when selling a house? Have you ever thought about buying or renting a place, had a creepy feeling, and not followed through? My wife and I were going to rent a place on Semlin Dr. years ago, but when we went to look at it, a woman in a wheelchair answered the door. My wife and I both had a creepy feeling, and then the woman told us not to rent the place. She asked us if we noticed that the address added up to 13, and told us that she had the worst luck since moving there. She had walked into the place, and was now paralyzed from the waist down. Even stranger, about a year later, I was going through a box of discarded photographs behind a photo shop on the west side, and came across the girl in the chair's photographs of her and her friends doing the Can-Can. That was weird.

I know I'm an odd duck, but I also know that I'm not alone. Ever.

Yikes!

Do you have/have you had spooks? What did you do about it?
	That's a bunch of bunk. There is no such thing as ghosts.
	I have/had spooks, and I just accepted it.
	I had my house blessed when I moved in.
	I had to have my house exorcised.
	I had to move. It just freaked me out too much.
	My cat/dog/kid sees things that I can't see.
	I have too-frequent light bulb burn-outs.
	A lot of stuff goes missing in my house - like keys and such.
	solipsist, you really need a vacation, or some shock therapy!
Free polls from Pollhost.com

ghost town

Thanks to coco for alerting us to Podopolis Place in Taiwan. She was right; it fits in well with Legopolis Mews of the last post, but seems to once have had greater ambitions.


It looks quite nice from a distance; lush, tropical, and colourful...


...but as the view zooms in, the decay starts to show.


The elements are slowly rendering the abandoned project back into the landscape (although, the bio-degradability is suspect), and the place is said to be inhabited by ghosts. According to custom/superstition, places that house spirits are seldom torn down, so this place will fester for years to come...


...as the sea slowly works it's way in.

Haunted by ghosts, huh? That is an interesting topic for another post.

(I tried to get a view on Google Earth, but it keeps crashing on me!)

Update - I got a Google Earth shot, and a picture of the Space Ostrich. Seems the place is now an avian space flu research laboratory.

affordable condos

Shanghai Thunder sent this image to me (thanks Shanghai!), and the next day, my cousin in Florida sent it to me as well. I just had to post it for some comic relief.

I'm too brain-dead to come up with any quirky quips, or funny fictions, so I'll leave it for you all to do.

Average price in Vancouver now some $970k (un-freakin'-believable!). When will the madness end?

Oh, I guess the new 50 year amortization mortgage will make that affordable.

Good grief!

process

I just don't have any energy to post these last 7 days or so: first, I was engrossed in the "Cadscam" thang for a few days, then I started getting sick with the flu, and I am a stay-at-home-dad these days. I've been feeling pretty low, and I'm sorry not to have dreamed up some fantastic presentation for you.

BoC has cut rates by 50 basis points - which is significant - but it is not going to help the common consumer, and it will not stop the slide that has begun in RE, nor the lumber industry, nor the economy over-all. That is all getting pretty tired anyhow.

So maybe you would like to see my process for photoshopping? Again, I don't have the energy or time to be explicit, but you can get an idea from the source photographs below, and well, I hope you find it amusing.

I will be back in short order...I hope.

watching the birdie

I regret that I have not scribed another instalment on the interminable wait for things to start sinking, but I have been deeply immersed in the goings-on at Parliament Hill. It's a fascinating story, and I can't wait for tomorrow.

This is not entirely unrelated to the game of RE, and is, in my view, a match to the fuse to one of the bombs that is part of the ensuing melt-down.

Imagine Harper subjecting to a cavity search. Sympathy for the devil?

I'll be back after La Revolucion!

Thoughtful, non-partisan comments are welcome.