Saturday, November 24, 2007

bleak friday

At least the weather was not bleak today. In fact, it was another beautiful day on the Lower Mainland. That's why we live here. We can see the mountains on these beautiful days, and dream of the Olympics, and maybe even go up to the mountains, and shout across the whole delta that we are here, and it's the best place in the entire freaking universe. Forget condo appreciation day (kind of like nurse appreciation day), we have condo appreciation years.

Is it unravelling? Rob Chipman's numbers are all over the place, and other realtors who comment haven't got a clue either. The stock markets are all over the map too, up and down, shaking out, teetering on the brink of collapse. There just has to be trouble when the TSX consistently outpaces DJ. It is like Vancouver holding out in RE when all around is falling.

None of that is real news though, the real news (on CBC, anyhow - which I staunchly defend - for all it's shortcomings) is the border line-ups as Canadians return from pumping 100's of thousands, millions even, of dollars into the American economy on it's biggest shopping day of the year. Christmas shopping early! The sales are fantastic! The coverage is breathless. (where is all this money coming from?) So sorry Vancouver retailers - we don't need you. We are rich on RE, and all we need is a few baristas to make our lattes, and a few pool boys for whatever they do. We'll just drive down to Bellis Fair to do our shopping and turn all the empty retail spaces in Vancouver into store-front condo's.

I've been hearing rumblings too of the BoC dropping rates by as much as 1% over the next year. The principle driver of that outlook is not the high dollar, so much as the economy is flagging, and some say (sorry - no links) already in recession. But is it the dollar that is putting the squeeze on the economy? or flagging exuberance? The end of a bull run? That would, of course, exclude Vancouver, because it's different here, and we have all this construction, and mountains, and the weather.


Anonymous said...

MLS®: V678617 For Sale:$849,900


Real Estate Type : Single Family
Building Type : House
Bedrooms : 7
Bathrooms : 5
Bathrooms (Partial) : 0
Interior Floor Space : 3088 sqft
Storeys : 3
Age Of Building : 3 Years
Land Size : 5274 sqft
Ownership : Freehold
Location : 3104 WAVERLEY AV
Vancouver, BC V5S 1G2

Bharatkumar S. Panchal
Telephone: 604-572-1211
Fax: 604-572-3216

Sutton Group-Medallion Realty
7832 - 120 Street
Surrey, British Columbia V3W 3N2

Telephone: 604-572-1211
Fax: 604-572-3216
Email Office

General Description
FORECLOSURE. Sold in "As Is" condition.

Amenities Nearby : Recreation, Shopping

Age Of Building : 3 Years Building Type : House
Fireplace Type : Unknown Interior Floor Space : 3088 sqft
Storeys : 3 Style : Detached

wizardofozziejurock said...

Really... 7 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms.

Another monument to greed and stupidity.

Is this place destined to become a rooming house? And what about the many other big-box houses like it?

Scullboy said...

I'm looking to move, as my significant other's coming to town. I just checked the for rent listings and there are over 75 just posted for TODAY! I moved to Van last year and believe me, it was nothing like that.

I think EVERYONE now perceives the top has been reached. All those specuvestors have their shoeboxes coming on line, with ridiculously high rents. Give them... oooo... say 90 days of carrying those places with no renters before they're forced to go on sale.

First you'll see places in the outlying areas fo up... new west and burnaby.... then you'll start seeing more and more "for sale" signs in Van.

People won't let go of their pre-conceptions easily. They bought in thinking they somehow "deserve" to make a profit or break even. You won't see prices drop until enough people have taken a monthly haircut and have figured out their place is worth no more then they can get on the day the deal closes.

But... I really feel like we've passed the peak.

si fu said...

It may be anecdotal, but I've been informally tracking condo prices downtown and I see lots of units that are either reduced, or pulled from the market and relisted at lower prices.

I went to look at some places over the weekend and 3 of the 4 were owned by realtors. I also noticed that places aren't getting snapped up on the first open house either.

The beginning of the end?

Scullboy said...

Wouldn't it be the most delicious of ironies if the realtors who *reallly* took it in the teeth?

greg said...

I'm sure that a lot of presales went to "realtors" who thought it smugly sweet to flip from the get go.

Well, if its their turn to lose, won't be too sorry to see the tide has finally turned.

Real estate board membership needs a haircut, anyway.

solipsist said...

There are a lot of goings-on beneath the radars of the majority. Things like BC gold/copper mine put on hold because of escalating costs, and analysis indicating that gold and copper in in for a beating.

"Black Friday" did not meet expectations, and it looks as if the American consumer is a little pinched and edgy.

Dow Jones getting beat up (down over 230 today, TSX down over 140, S&P and NASDAQ down too.) The heady days of 14,000+ are gone with summer, and ahead lies a winter of discontent. I think that even the most bullish can smell it coming. No need to waste any more bandwidth on the ABCP, and all of that.

It's just the tip on an iceberg folks. No need to panic. Have another Cosmopolitan and dance.

solipsist said...

Sorry - my remark on Black Friday was misdirected, it's actually investors who have been reportedly losing confidence - as evidenced in the markets.

Also, it was the S&P/TSX that slid 147 points today, not the TSX.

BoC pumped another $715 million in today.