Sunday, December 28, 2008
image from here
Great deals out there
Vince sent me an e-mail asking for my reaction to the article linked above. Thanks for the e-mail Vince, I appreciate all e-mails.
I thought it to be a well written article. It had well placed platitudes -
I have heard both doomsday predictions and rosy outlooks. From this, I conclude that right now people are looking for direction. They are looking for some semblance of where the market is going, when the opportunities will emerge and how to best act on those events. (sic)
biased factoids -
While I cannot predict the short term fluctuations of the market I can offer insight based on MPC Intelligence's experience observing and documenting Metro Vancouver's development market.
I can provide some simple facts about the current market that will better allow consumers to sort through the fact and the fiction in the months ahead. (sic)
fallacious mythology -
The Chinese proverb says, "May you live in interesting times." (I have dealt with that before) (sic)
acronymic company titles -
MPC Intelligence... (and they are, who?),
and generally unbiased positivity. Vapid writing for the vapid and vacillating venture capitalists who still have way too much money to lose.
From a Google search for MPC Intelligence - MPC Intelligence reminds our customers that we are here to help in every way shape and form. We are working near round the clock to deliver ..., and - MPC Intelligence assumes no responsibility for inaccuracies provided by the ... MPC Intelligence is not responsible for the privacy practices or content of ... I am always so encouraged when a marketing group has disclaimers in their headlines. "Near round the clock", no less... Hang on, I'm going to give them a call... OK, so Jennifer Podmore (the author of the Vancouver Sun "article"), is a Managing Partner of MPC Intelligence! Qu'elle surprise! Another great surprise - MPC Intelligence is not really available around the clock... I called at 12:45 AM, and was advised that their business hours are "from 9-5, Monday through Friday". MPC Intelligence - contact
So, Vince, I think that the "article" is another piece of shill from the Vancouver Sun. A pumper for the developers is trying to get you to buy. Why even read it? My own take is that, if prices have retreated by 15%, they have another 35% to go - minimum. And that is if there is not a depression. If that happens, see the previous post featuring Detroit "mansions" for three hundred dollars.
I will not eviscerate the "article" further, that would be unseemly.
See, I'm a "journalist" too! All it takes is Google!
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Hi! How ya doin'?
Ya, me too.
I have not written much lately, I've been considering where to go from here. I've had a lot of fun with the zany, the zowie, the zip and the zing. Jertains in my curtains, and zillows on my pillows... but the RE market is toast. That is not news anymore. Well, maybe it is - to some...
I got an e-mail yesterday from condohype alerting me to this article in The Gastritis and Mal-absorbed. I suppose I ought to be more charitable - given the Season of Blissful Consumption, and given that the writer, Timothy Taylor, gave a (favourable?) mention of condohype and vancouver (un)real estate - let's call it The Globe and Mail.
THE CITY: A BIWEEKLY LOOK AT LIFE IN VANCOUVERI could not agree more. Further, he writes;
The upside to the bubble bursting: Sanity returns
The bloggers had it right - B.C.'s real estate market was due for a correction. At least we can stop obsessing about house listings
...Meanwhile, bloggers are gloating. I'm talking about those real estate death watch sites such as Vancouver (un) Real Estate (vancouverunrealestate.blogspot.com) and Condohype (condohype.word- press.com). After the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver called off its 2009 conference and trade show two weeks ago because of the downturn, the blogger-in-chief of Condohype wrote, "Too bad the party's cancelled because that activity sounds awesome. In my book, it's an invitation to show up in my 'The Blogger Was Right' T-shirt with my dogs Case and Shiller. I'm devastated this can't happen now."
The sarcasm is perhaps a little undignified, but you can hardly blame them for feeling satisfied. They diagnosed market madness. And, with varying degrees of insight and eloquence, they were correct. That bull market really had distorted our view of certain things. It had changed us, or at the very least it had changed the way we relate to the places where we live.
It's nice to be noticed by such (an august) publication as the Gripe and Mewl, but I have to say that, well never mind, it's Crassmess, after all. Personally though, I think that the hypster's sarcasm is brilliant, prolific, and consistent, but never undignified. And Timothy, it's all lower case on the title for a reason. Do I feel sorry for flippers caught with their trousers down? No. I do, however, feel for the naive and ovine - whom were sucked in by the hype. I feel for those who have no idea what a recession is, let alone a depression, and have a huge mortgage with no equity, and will lose their jobs.
We were right - all of us; VHB, the pope, me, mohican,... Even Rob Chipman hedged his bets. You the readers were right too, and that is why you sought a different view. But gloating? Nah.
Now, where to go from here?
There is much to write about, always. Politically, I could dedicate to a career in print. I alienated a lot of readers in that though, because I expressed my very explicit views of Harper, and a good bunch of the Conservative Party. There is little gained from such rants though, it just tires me, and inflames others. Most couldn't give a hoot.
I could write about the coming depression, but that would just depress all of us, and waste a bunch of time that could be spent more judiciously - like canning fish, and salting pork, and stewing fruits, and pickling eggs, and learning how to plow with a dog in harness, or darning socks, or repairing boots, or distilling corn mash.
Maybe, I could just continue to post whatever suits my fancy. It might be about gay penguins. It might be severed Internet cables under the sea (and the perceived portent). Maybe you need an herbal cure for halitosis, or want to know about non-local effect. How to skin a rabbit, or pull a grouse's head through it's rectum. Maybe I will relate something that you have already read over at The Turner Report, or Greater Fool. I ripped this from there -
The Detroit house, on the left is going for $300 (three hundred dollars). The Vancouver house on the right is going for $998,000. Detroit must be the Worst Place on Earth, wot? They need some steenking Oleempics.
For now, this will remain vancouver (un)realestate (because it is still unreal), but in the future, it may morph into something like vancouver re-instated, and I will report on Bridge scores, or such. Who knows?
If you send me money, I might even be compelled to write more. If the Grey and Mangy wants to hire me, great! In the meantime, you can hook up for the RSS feed so to save a fruitless click - only to find nothing new.
Best of the season to all, whatever your affiliation.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
From the Gloom and Mentira
Canada's stock market plunge... contributed to a 3.2 per cent drop in household net worth in the third quarter of this year, equivalent to ...$191-billion, Stats Can said Tuesday.(slower growth? Hah!)
Stock prices were down by 18 per cent in the third quarter,...
“The...loss in... equities, combined with the related loss in the value of pension and life insurance assets..., was the principal factor “Also contributing were slower growth in residential real estate values and continued household borrowing. Total household assets fell 2.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2008.”
...the largest percentage drop in household net worth (in ten years)...Gosh! It is all happening so fast! Who'da thunk it?
The numbers for the final quarter will almost certainly be worse, Patricia Croft... said....
I heard some bobble-head or another say last night that Vancouver RE prices will decline by 15%-20% in 2009. That would be on top of the ~15% haircut in 2008, I presume. Another fella said that price retreats will be in the same % as sales declines. That would be about 70% for Vancouver. 2010 will see another 30% off RE, and 2011, another 12%. Dare to Dream!
It is all happening so fast! Who'da thunk it?
Our fearless leader, who was so nonchalant about the economy until last week some time, had this to say today -
PM's economic flip: 'I've never seen such uncertainty'This guy is so full of CRAP. Are you not thankful that it is his "hand on the tiller"? Garf. I really don't think that any lessons have been learned from the Depression - except how to better swindle people.
Globe and Mail
OTTAWA — Stephen Harper has delivered his bleakest forecast yet for the Canadian economy, warning yesterday the future is increasingly hard to read and conceding the possibility of a depression.
"I'm very worried about the Canadian economy."
When asked whether a depression might be possible,...‘The truth is, I've never seen such uncertainty in terms of looking forward to the future,’ ...Harper says.
"It could be, but I think we've learned enough about depression; we've learned enough from the 1930s to avoid some of the mistakes that caused a recession in 1929 to become a depression in the 1930s." (emboldening mine)
It is all happening so fast! Who'da thunk it?
Are you ready? Things are melting down faster than the Arctic.
Meanwhile, some Antarctic snow birds are having problems of their own. It seems that someone decided that two penguins are gay, and protested that they be given eggs of their own to hatch, as they have been stealing eggs of other penguins at the zoo in China.
Gay penguins... Who'da thunk it?
Oh, and I almost forgot, the Fed cut interest rates to between 0%-.25% today. The only route to kick-starting the economy now is lots and lots of overtime for the printers. Free money for everyone! (except in Delaware, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Indiana, Idaho, Omaha, and The Big Island, and anywhere prohibited by local statute. Some restrictions may apply.)
Friday, December 12, 2008
From the comments section:
"Pity the fool who bought this... Buying an asset which doubled in 3 years is nothing short of idocy..."(sic)
5164 Madeira Court(italics mine)
Asking price: $1,090,000
Selling price: $870,000
Previous selling price: $389,750 (2005)
Taxes: $5,240 (2007)
Days on the market: 36
Listing agent: Betsy Carstairs, Park Georgia Realty Ltd.
Even though this 1,972-square-foot house...sold for $220,000 under asking, the selling price was still $480,000 above what (was) paid for it about three years ago.
"Unlike financial markets, real estate is always a good investment," agent Carstairs says. What else is she going to say? The place has shed value in the week passed since it was sold.
...built in 1971, is in need of some (major) updating — brown carpets aren't for everyone — but it has attractive features...it's on a dead-end street... It is fitting that it is on a dead end street, it is a dead end investment.
The new owners are "excited about the idea of giving this '70s-style home a facelift," ...Carstairs says. "They can't wait to roll up their sleeves and work together to create the home of their dreams."
Now, that is just crazy. They were asking 3 times what they paid for this house three years ago, and got double - without doing anything to the place. The new "owners" will need to put $100K into the place while it is dropping in value. Will it go back to 2005 value? Oh, yeah. Will it go back to 2003? Oh, yeah. How low will she go?
Just imagine paying $500/month in property taxes on top of the mortgage payments, new furnace and windows, new roof, new kitchen, new everything. This place has a great view, but is a bad deal, IMHO. The ones who bought it in 2005 hit the jackpot though...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
REBEL ENGLISH BIKERS GETTING VESPAS
I wrote about the pope packing it in, but it seems that due to popular demand, he is considering other avenues (an assumption that the pope is XY, and not XX). condohype has made an excellent comment today, and the pope reproduced the affair here.
Prior to sending a cease and desist regarding the language via our Legal staff, if the matter can be resolved internal it would be preferred.That is threatening language, thinly veiled, in my view.
RE: Identification of site management
Further to the changes as outlined below which we expect to be implemented immediately, we also request that...
...this email will serve as notification with respect to our requests and will be kept on file and further forwarded to our legal department. (bolding is mine)
I was surprised by the pope's announcement, but at the same time, was not. I became somewhat bored with RE when the top was in, and now it seems a slow fall to bottom - like a feather from a humming bird. La-la-la. Big news would be the whole danged flock of humming birds falling from the sky like so much hail. Further, I have either alienated, or bored, many readers. Having these kinds of bombs dropped on you can dampen ones enthusiasm, and instill cynicism further. I too have had a letter with mention of libel, civil proceedings, subpoena, etc. - in regard to some anonymous comments that did verge on libel. I removed the comments, but did not alter my post. That satisfied the complainant, and the pope has done similarly.
It can be daunting to keep it fresh, and RE related, which his eminence did well. There has been so much financial and political intrigue too, it is almost useless trying to write about either - they are both so colossally fragged up. I'm just finding everything to be surreal, if predicted, these days. I have had a hard time keeping up - my toddler is a terror (in the best of ways), and demands and deserves a lot of attention. I often start posts that end up saved as drafts, because I lose the rhythm, and the post becomes senseless (this is one of those). Pages sit open for days awaiting comment, until the news is stale, and there are 10 new essays to write every day.
I seem to have misrepresented the situation with VCI this AM (as pointed out by Many Franks), and hope that I have done better in my redaction. It was really about the photoshop, and I rushed the writing. I was distracted.
All the best, your eminence, and thanks for all the laughs, news, and traffic.
Friday, December 05, 2008
What a week, huh?
The November RE numbers are out (as reported by CBC Newsworld a couple of days ago), and Vancouver is 70% down in sales, and prices (benchmark, if I recall correctly) are off 12.3% since May 08. Flippers in Paradise? More like a floppers with a pair of dice, and they've crapped out. Shucks.
OJ, oh, OJ. You are up shite creek now. Justice delayed is still justice - especially when meted out on such a cretin as you by your own doing. Up to 33 years. Try swinging the babes when you are 94, Old Jerk.
The picture up top is from here. If you want a trippy look at reality, check out (the Late) Terence McKenna. (the Late) Timothy Leary rated him as one of the six most important people alive. They are both toast now, and they both have, er, reputations, but if you have an open and adventurous mind, there are some interesting avenues of thought - far removed from benchmark prices, but strangely relevant to granite counter-tops (or counter-culture, at the least).
That vague reference is the best prologue that I can think of for a comment on what is happening to our poor, beleaguered, bewitched, and bewildered land of Canada. I've got to get away from that though, it only brings out partisanship and talking points, and sound bites from the six o'clock news. A great harm has been done to our country this week. Whether one supports this, or that, doesn't really matter. Precedents have been set, and we have no Parliament in what is about to become very desperate times. "The Big 3" have lined up at the trough, and asked for $6 billion, which they are going to get, with no Parliamentary debate what-so-ever. We just pumped $25 billion into the banks, and they reported profits of some 13.9 billion (needs citation) in profits. Down from the $19 billion of last year, and the year before, and the year before. My bank account is down to less than a grand (I spent a lot on lobster and cognac), can I have a top-up too?
We have not yet really noticed what is coming, but it is coming. Pay attention. Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. How is that for a platitude?
Here is the best picture of Our Dear Leader that I have ever seen. What a clown whore. (no image credit, but I am pretty sure that it is from Image Factory, which is, I believe, of the CBC)
I loved Question Period last week when the Opposition was chanting "leader, leader" after Prentice got up and spoke (in reasonably reasonable tones - even if he is full of shite). Harper looked like he was having an aneurysm, and some painful haemorrhoids at the same time.
Christmas shopping will be a breeze this year for the recently laid-off, there will be no money to shop with. Sorry kids, but we will have to sell one of you for medical experiments. The malls will not be too busy for those with money.
We are giving li'l solipsist an empty can to collect rainwater, and a ruler. I'll make a fancy box for it, and call it the Lower-Mainland Mini Meteorologist Mean Measurement of Precipitation kit (patent pending).
I smell a new cottage industry that The Dragons might be interested in.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Just remember Goebbels' meme about repeating a lie often enough.
from here, by way of Garth Turner's.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
a thought for the thoughtful
We are having an economic melt-down, and a political melt-down - that seems to be leading to a societal melt-down (just read some of the comments on the boards at CBC, G&M, NP, MacLean's, etc. There is talk of Harper proroguing Parliament, illegal tape recordings, "coups d'etat" (oh please!), "bloodless coup" (I'm swooning now), internecine squabbling about who gets to be PM, separatist and socialists, Western secession, with-holding food supplies to Ontario and Quebec (they produce about 80% of their own food).
I've been meaning to write about The Five Stages of Collapse
So here are the five stages as I defined them almost a year ago. The little check-mark next to "financial collapse" is there to remind us that we are not here to quibble or equivocate, because Stage 1 is pretty far along. Stages 2 and 3 - commercial and political collapse, are driven by financial collapse, and will overlap each other. Right now, it is unclear which one is farther along. On the one hand, there are signs that global shipping is grinding to a halt, and that big box retailers are in for a very bad time, with many stores likely to close following a disastrous Christmas season. On the other hand, states are already experiencing massive budget shortfalls, laying off state workers, cutting back on programs, and are starting to beg the federal government for bail-out moneyThe article is worth the read. My take is that financial, commercial and political collapse are well under way, societal collapse is coming, and cultural collapse will follow thereafter (no more Internet, no more mp3s, no more movies, books, no more electricity, no more schools, hospitals,...those kinds of things).
I get this little niggling in the back of my mind of the SPP agreement Harper signed with Bush last Valentine's Day - that permits American military to enter Canada in "the case of an emergency". What could be more of an emergency for Harper than getting his butt kicked to the curb?
So how about those numbers? I was wrong about the 7000 TSX, and there is a rather bullish sucker rally on. Strangely, it took off on news of the impending "constitutional crisis" (are you scared yet?).
Mayhem in Mumbai. Catastrophe in Congo. Giant meteorites! Dogs and ponies, and bread and circii (or circuses, if you must). How's that employment security? Thinking of buying a pre-sale? How about "moving up"? There are now 3 miserable houses on miserably-sized lots for under $400K in all of East Van. You still have to pay over $400K for a full(ish)-sized lot. It's not sinking in yet.
I hear a train a-coming...
Friday, November 28, 2008
I am practically speechless, I have too much to say. Where to start? Where to finish? "There is no end. There is no beginning. There is only the infinite passion of life." That is what Fellini said.
The "Old Chinese Curse" (supposedly, NOT!) May you live in interesting times seems applicable here too. Things certainly are interesting - fascinating, even. I am digesting so much information these days that I am in overload mode. There is a lot of really serious shite coming down the pike. Another of my favourite quotes (from NASA) is; Don't let your pre-occupation with reality stifle your imagination. Yeah! I could lay out all kinds of wild scenarios...
My mind has been turning back to art. It is a nice refuge from the madness. That is why we do it. The painting above is entitled Half Life. You can draw your own meanings and context from it.
The one below is entitled The Cleaning of Democracy - Lima 2001. It was inspired by student protests against Fujimori - in which they symbolically washed Peruvian flags outside the government buildings - to be rid of the corruption that was tainting the country. Those could be Canadian flags washed of the Maple Leaf. Today, we have the Opposition building a coalition to bring down the Conservatives, and cleansing our own Parliament of their stench. I am most excited about this.
We are on shifting ground, and I see no stability in sight.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
I get weary of the doom and gloom, so a little levity is welcome.
Update: SNL/NBC seems to have canned the YouTube vid, but I found another...
Friday, November 21, 2008
So in lieu of any meaningful analysis, some exciting video in representation of the markets this week.
The TSX is up some today, but yesterday it sure looked like the above video - with the same cartoonishness. I bet that it goes below 7000 on Monday.
What to do with that leased BMW that you can no longer afford. Strangely, I found the denouement to be funny in its impotence.
Monday, November 17, 2008
The $700 billion bail out package in the States is more like $2 trillion, and it is probably much more than that. Goldman Sachs is purportedly using $7 billion of the $10 billion that they received for Christmas bonuses for the big-wigs. WTF? Same band, same song. RE continues to unwind, but things are sticky on the way down, or are they? Now, the "Obama Factor" is going to save Vancouver RE! The credit card companies keep cranking up my credit limit, and offering me 2.99% rates for six months - to go on a winter vacation, or buy Christmas presents, or consolidate other debt (that I do not have). Credit Crunch my eye. Condo projects are biting the dust in Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary...and there are big holes in the ground where the buildings were supposed to go up. So reminiscent of the early 1990s. Garth Turner is writing about squirrel meat and canned beans, shot guns and ammo (he is sounding jaded). I was squawking about a Depression 5 years ago, and people though I was nuts, but now it is in the main stream of consciousness. Have a gander at this video - from Fox News, no less. You have to love such an interview taking place in a bar.
It is all getting terribly repetitive. Deck chairs and icebergs and sinking ships. Gaack!
Most poignant quote of the day - Forget about gold – the ONLY precious metal is lead.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
I came across this (redacted) story in the Glum and Moving (italics and emboldening mine), about a woman who waited too long to list. I wonder how many stories like this there are - aside from the flippers with shooting stars in their eyes.
When Pat Webb moved to Vancouver a year ago, she didn't think twice about buying a condo in tony Kitsilano...That has got to hurt. It just illustrates that one can't time the market.
Perhaps she ought to have had a sober second thought.
But in August, the 70-year-old retiree decided to move back to the United States. She had sensed Vancouver's market was slowing, but a neighbour's condo had sold a week earlier, so she too tried to sell.
And she realized that the market is even more fickle than she.
She listed her one-bedroom, 705-square-foot condo for the price she paid – $509,000 – on Aug. 30. Ms. Webb has since reduced that to $485,000. It still hasn't sold.
That sucks. She tried to sell it for what she paid for it, and couldn't. Plus, she has not accounted for the Property Transfer Tax, lawyer fees, RE agent commission, etc. Then, along came the stock market troubles. I sure hope that she didn't get burned on that, on top of the condo losses.
Today time is all but up, as Ms. Webb is moving back to California. Barring a last-minute miracle sale by her agent, Lindsay Wilkinson, Ms. Webb said she will try to rent out the condo this year and relist in the spring.
Waiting for a miracle... That is sad. I don't think that she realizes that when she re-lists in the spring, the market will have eroded by tens of thousands of dollars more. Her best move would be to bite the bullet, and list for $429K now, else she will be following the market all the way to the bottom.
“I'm disappointed, but not overly surprised,” she said. “I was right on the cusp and then [the market] changed. So timing's everything.”
Incidentally, thanks Derek and Brian, for the e-mails. I did not get a chance to remark on them here before they became stale.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
I read something that prompted me to look and see what is available in Beverly Hills, and found this 3 bedroom/3.5 bath beauty for $2,995,000. It is on a half acre (21,825 square feet), and basks in warmth and sunshine year-round. And, you might bump into Salma Hayek whilst looking over the asparagus and arugula at the Atelier Market.
So, maybe you can't get a Green Card, and need to settle for something in Vancouver. There is always V738247 in Shaughnessy for $2,888,000. On a 16,748 square foot lot, 3 bedrooms, with 2.5 baths, it basks in sunshine and relative warmth for about 100 days per year. And you might bump into David Emerson whilst having your BMW lubed.
...one of these things is not the same (although the prices are so close).
Things are still way out of whack here folks.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Most hopeful blurb of the day...
Priced to sell is this immaculate Renfrew Heights bungalow boasting 3 bdrms up plus a 2 bdrm basement suite. Features 14 year old kitchen overlooking the sundrenched South facing backyard, updated bathroom, hardwood floors on the main, double glazed windows plus a superb location, half block to Gladstone Elementary & within walking distance to the Skytrain.$595,000.00 2610 E 21ST AV MLS® V724803
It may have been priced to sell last spring, but those days are so over. Chop $80K off, and you might get some action, but you better be quick! That 14 year old kitchen is almost 15 years old, and that doesn't sound like such a great feature. Where is the granite? The stainless steel, and oiled glass? And that sun-drenched back yard is a faint memory until next June. By that time, you will be glad to sell for $395k.
MLS® V726475 may well be one of the "better" deals out there. This is a fairly quiet area, and there is purportedly an 8,321 sq ft lot for $555k. The lot seems quite irregular, but it is smoking big.
Things are definitely moderating, but there is a long way to fall yet.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
I did my bi-monthly MLS search for all of East Vancouver today, and came up with 3 properties under $400K. That is a slight improvement over the one that I found last time. Pushing the maximum price up to $500K provides 35 properties - pretty much all of which are junk. The place that I wrote of on Oct. 10 has been "slashed" from $499K to $469K - not nearly enough.
The blurbs are not so over-the-top anymore; no real mention of heritage features such as original, cracked concrete walkways, and such. I found the place featured below ($419K), and thought the photographs to be simply weird.
Attention Builders or 1st time Buyers, cute 3 bedroom rancher on 41st/Earles in sought after Killarney area, renovate it to your hearts desire or build your new dream home, steps to all amenities, sunny south facing backyard/garage with lane. V727568
This wondrous house of character and fortitude comes with a door knocker and letter slot on a dove grey door!
A lovely, original fireplace (converted to gas!), with energy saving, candle-powered coach lights! These fine chattels are included in the purchase price!
Here is a close-up of one of the coach lights. The discerning value buyer will instantly recognize the antiquity of these features - as evidenced by the layers of dust. Sotheby's is interested!
There were 5 such pictures of the property. No over-view shot, no shots of any rooms, just fixations on mundane fixtures. Sad sellers.
I feel myself preferring (again) the fun of the housing crash over the over-all crash. It is easier to laugh.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
(Globe) Ottawa bled $1.7-billion in red ink in August, offering the latest sign that Canada is in serious economic turmoil and that balancing the federal books will be a tricky challenge this year.From Garth Turner's blog. (he apparently lifted it from the G&M).
“We’re in for rough times. These are difficult times. Canadians should not underestimate what we’re facing. We’re not an island. We’re a trading nation,” Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said yesterday.
When you have the Finance Minister making dire warnings, it is time to head for the hills. I know that he is incompetent, but still, he should be whispering sweet nothings in Canadians' ears to keep them from panicking. The point is, it is always much worse than is officially revealed. It was just a couple of weeks ago, during the election campaign, when we heard such things as "Canada is insulated", "We have planned for this", "We will not run deficits", and so on. Then it is revealed that there was a $1.7 Billion deficit in August, and that was before this melt-down got under way.
There has been trillions of dollars pumped into banks world wide, and Canada has probably pumped in 100 billion or more by now. Businesses still have trouble getting credit for inventory and operating expenses. I am not sure about mortgages right now, I won't bother thinking about that for some time to come. We hear that the problem is with liquidity, but the real problem is debt. The whole world is up to its eyeballs in it, and now the money tap is turned off. I've always called it "The Big Grab". "They" use the peons to generate vast wealth, and then "They" take it all back. It's just a huge shell game. My question is, why are we pumping money in to create more debt? How does this address the sea of debt that we are drowning in? How will that debt be reconciled when nobody has a job? It's too late to go back to basics, nobody knows them anymore.
I caught a bit of the Senatorial Inquisition into this sub-prime debacle - featuring Alan Greenspan. A Democrat by the name of Waxman (supposedly widely feared) was grilling Greenspan, who ended up having to admit that his whole ideology was fatally flawed, and that the whole economic structure of the global economy is a house of cards. My first thought on hearing that was that it was deliberate, and calculated - a conspiracy on an unbelievable scale. Derivatives, and all of the other legerdemain that is pulled off. Layers upon layers of pyramidal rip-offs. How could any body, in its right mind, allow banks and markets to regulate themselves? Why bother having transportation safety agencies, food inspection agencies, medical and drug standards, workplace safety standards?
This is going to be wild.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Home price slide may be over-stated.
Canadian home prices cooled last month, but the depth of the correction may have been exaggerated by distorted data, says...TD Securities Inc.Here we go; if you don't like the numbers, just change 'em, or at least, change the way they are interpreted. This same thing has been done with inflation numbers, unemployment numbers (if you are not receiving benefits, or have given up in despair, you are not unemployed!), and who knows what else. It is just so much Newspeak - a la 1984. The stock market has not really crashed since July, it is up significantly since 1934! Trillions have been made! You are not really older than you were 20 years ago, your hair is not grey, and you don't really weigh more than you did in high school - you are actually younger than your parents! (and your hair less grey), and you weigh a lot less than Luciano Pavarotti! There, don't you feel better now?
The average price of a resale home across the country's 25 major markets fell by an estimated 6.2 per cent year-over-year in September, according to a report last week from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The decline was larger than many market watchers had expected, and added to fears the Canadian housing market could go into a U.S.-style freefall.
However the price drop was led by a 43 per cent plunge in the number of homes sold last month in Vancouver, the country's most expensive market.
“The crux of the issue is that unless the underlying cities are properly weighted...the results can be biased by dramatic changes in the volume of the sales in certain cities,” said the report by TD economists Millan Mulraine and Eric Lascelles.
Currently, the average existing home price is calculated by using an average that gives each city a weighting based on its contribution to overall sales, Mr. Mulraine said. TD recalculated the data by fixing the weighting to last year's data instead, which is a more standard method of calculating year-over-year comparisons for economic data, he added.
Under the new weighting system, last month's average existing home price decline would be a more moderate 1.3 per cent from Sept. 2007, the TD report said.
Prices 8% less than last year are prices 8% less: who gives a flying fig what the volume of sales is?
Monday, October 20, 2008
...so, I redeemed it
Slow motion train wrecks and all...
I'm still digesting the last weeks, and there is ever-more to digest. It is difficult (for me) to look at markets, bail-outs, etc., without getting into politics, but I'll do my best.
Trillions of dollars lost in the stock markets, and governments pumping trillions into the banks to "save" them, but who, and what, is being saved? Those trillions (or, in the case of Canada, billions), are not magic dollars pulled out of a hat, they are dollars from central banks, and have interest attached to them. We, or more accurately, our children and grandchildren, will be on the hook for that. Who benefits? It could be said that we benefit; by not having bank failures (yet), by not having our economies wiped out (yet), by saving jobs (so far), by propping up RE markets, and businesses that have made record billions (and collectively, trillions) in profits. Nobody "knows" if these cash infusions are going to make any real difference (well, I know that they won't), but what the heck, eh? It's just Other People's Money. My own feeling is that it is just delaying the inevitable, and we are still going to have a global recession, or worse (worse is my feeling). It's a bit like the guy who is over-leveraged, and keeps borrowing more to make the payments on what is already borrowed. It just can't end well.
85% of Canadians' wealth is in their homes, and those homes have fallen almost 7% in value nationally, and 8% in Vancouver since May. And it has just begun. American RE is still falling. But, it's different here, right? Then there are all of those hedge funds and mutual funds and such that make up the rest of the wealth. That has only fallen 40% since July. Oil has fallen 50% since July, and with all of that, a large chunk of government revenues. Just wait for the lay-offs, when even more tax revenues will be lost, and unemployment benefits, welfare benefits, CMHC insured mortgages go belly-up, etc., start to suck evermore money. Then there are the consumer goods that will not be purchased, leading to even more tax revenues foregone, plus more unemployment.
The only prediction that I can make right now, is that it is going to get very ugly, soon. I know that my predictions are worthless - I am not an expert, or highly educated and paid economist, but were they not the ones talking about slowing appreciation in the housing markets that would be confined to single digits? Were they not the ones saying that oil was going to $300/bbl within a year? That the Canadian economy was as "solid as the Canadian Shield"? That the government would never run deficits? Insert your own platitudinous reassurances here ___________.
I've got more to say on this, but have not the time right now. I'll be back.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
There is weird stuff happening with Blogger these days. I keep getting Sanskrit-like font, and I don't know why. I kind of dig it though.
So yeah, here we are - back in much the same position (politically) that we were 5 weeks ago. A record low participation rate, which is very sad. I put that down principally (and ironically) to a lack of civics education in schools, and a break-down of the family structure. I really sound like a Conservative in writing that, wot? But I think that it is at least partly true. I gained an interest in Canadian politics by spending a lot of quality time with my Grandmother. We were "ideologically" opposed, but had great, respectful discussions and debates about those differences. In the long run, we agreed on the same principles of fiscal conservatism, and social progressiveness.
Another problem is the lack of proportional representation. The Conservatives won the Government with 20% of the votes of eligible voters. Some 10 million people chose not to vote. Why? Is it because people don't believe that their voices count? (they do, and they don't, but...) To put that 20% into perspective, the Greens got ~20% of the votes that the Cons got.
It was an election about "leadership", and then, by default, became about leadership/economy. The Conservatives knew that this shit storm was coming, and that is why they triggered the election (well, plus the Cadman thing coming to a head, the In-and-Out scam coming to a head, the Couillard book coming out - what a flop - etc.), but they had no plan. Sadly, ironically, Harper's plan is Dion's plan - to call together the Premiers, heads of banks, have meetings with global leaders... - which Harper dismissed as "a plan to make a plan". Dion is a singularly decent man, in the words of Rex Murphy, and that is a rarity these days. He had a vision for something new, but was unable to articulate it to Canadians. It was not just the accent, but he had a battle against the impression that two years of Harper's negative advertising cemented into peoples minds, and he does not have the support of the Liberal old boys' club. That is too bad, in my view. He reminds me of Joe Clark in 1979 in some ways (decency, sincerity, etc.) - just before we ended up with Trudeau, who paved the way for Mulroney. That was a grim decade and a half.
Just a week ago, Harper was saying that everything was a-ok, and that there would be no "bail-outs" for banks. Then, we "found out" that everything is not a-ok, and that the guv was pumping $25 Billion into the economy (banks). That does not instill confidence into me.
I have read most saying that Dion is finished, and that the knives are out for him. He has done nothing to dispel that rumour. The thing is, who will replace him as leader? Ignatieff? He does not have the party, or Parliamentary experience. Plus, he is a goof. Rae? Too much baggage, too old, and he is creepy in the same way that Clinton is creepy. It seems to be a common trait amongst Rhodes Scholars. Manley, in a come-back? No thanks. Frank McKenna. Frank McKenna. Wherefore art thou, Frank McKenna? I'm not holding my breath.
I don't think that there can be a coalition betwixt the Libs and NDP. Jack wants to be PM, and would settle for nothing less. The ideologies are a fair bit different too. Further, it looks as if the Liberals are going to be in a mess for a while. Harper doesn't really need a majority, he will continue to stress the Liberals, and will continue with his incremental dismantling, and sale, of Canada. We will wake up some day 10 years from now, and wonder WTF happened while we were watching American Idol, American politics, and whinging about those damned Americans. We will be those damned Americans. (Disclosure; I have American uncles, aunts, cousins, and friends. They are all good people, just like us.) Harper said that we "won't recognize Canada when (he is) done with it", and it is true. I already don't recognize it.
I read someone - whom I have great trust in - that we will live in totalitarianism for the next 200 years, and I think that he was correct. "We" "have given" Harper a "new, stronger mandate" to "implement his agenda". Some 20% of eligible voters have, anyhow. His agenda is in the public domain, although not enunciated at any point during the campaign, and it is tragic. Codex Alimentarus (control of your food). North American Union. Supplantation of our sovereign dollar with the Amero (some day - I predict just months before the Olympics, we will have 60 days to trade in all of our dollars for Ameros.) We will have American military providing security in Vancouver and Whistler during the Olympics. Even though we have a decent copy right law, and a levy on all blank DVDs, CDs, cassette tapes, etc. that goes to the recording industry, it must be harmonized with the American laws. We will have more pesticides as we lower our standards to the US's, we will be de-regulated left, right and centre. Prisons will be privatized to meet the demand as our drug laws are harmonized, and we import the war on teen-agers, hippies, people with chronic diseases, etc. who smoke a little weed. We will have wistful memories of a publicly funded health care system.
They say that you get the government that you deserve, but I have to wonder - what did I, or my 19 month-old son do to deserve this?
I have much more ranting to do, but it is fruitless, and pointless. And, I am trying to keep my screeds to under 10,000 words.
There is a lot of ill wind coming. House prices are down ~6.5% nationally, and "the most expensive markets" (like Vancouver) are faring worse. The Infinity project sounds as if it is dead. The stock market rallies of the last couple of days were suckers' rallies - as I suspected. The global economy is totally flacked, no matter what we do. All of those billions - nay, trillions - that the governments are pumping in is just a huge theft from us all. Last week's bail-outs put every single Canadian some $3,600 further into debt. Your Social Insurance Number is a chit for that (and all) government debt. I heard today that the Finance Department is forecasting a $10 Billion deficit at year-end March 2009. That is 5 months from now, so are they going to be borrowing $2Bill/month, or have we been in deficit all along? (as I forecast last week) Inquiring minds (mine, at least) would like to know.
Did you get what you voted for?
Monday, October 13, 2008
Almost there. Thanks given for that. On Tuesday, we will go to the polls as the markets continue to roil and twist. It's great that we will have a PM that talks soothingly of us not being the US, and that his steady hand on the tiller is just the ticket in an incomprehensible future. I was so reassured when he spoke of no bail-outs for banks - no socialization of the risk that some of us have so "astutely" avoided. I was not even surprised when "we" bought a bunch of unknown quality mortgages from our Big 5 Banks - that collectively made over $19 Billion in profits last year, and record, multi-billions in profits for the last ten years. (almost the $24 billion that we just gave 'em!) Reportedly, they are backed by CMHC/YouAndMe. I'm wagering that they are the 0% Down-40 Year Amortization variety. 40% of mortgages last year were of that flavour.
Harper had no platform until 4 days ago. He expected that his millions of dollars of negative campaigning against Dion for the last two years would let him cake walk it. He thought that the average Canadian is a willing denizen of a "Northern European welfare state", and more than a little slow in the head. That is the thing about narcissistic, sociopath, ideologues - they truly revile "ordinary" people, and think that we are stupid. We are (collectively), but not that dumb. Only about 30% of the population that are first past the post (because they have been tied to it) are.
On Friday came news that Harper's own special FBI forensic audiologistic super-G-man with all kinds of fancy oscilloscopes, and anti-matter x-ray glasses (and whatever else they have down there in Warshington) determined that the Zyartuk tape of Harper discussing the (alleged) attempted bribery of Chuck Cadman - is authentic, and not tampered with in any way. Harper now will not answer any reporters' questions in the last two days of the campaign. I guess it must be pretty awkward for him - running to be PM, and all - to answer questions about perjury, and bribery - not to mention interference in the workings of Parliament. Those are criminal charges by the way. Transparency, Accountability, and Standing Up and Urinating on Canada.
I am still undecided. I know that I will definitely not vote Conservative. The candidate was too arrogant, or was not allowed, to show up at the all-candidates meetings. That seems to be a very strong pattern, and who would vote for that? I'm still pretty partial to a semblance of democracy, and to the illusion that my vote is a sacred trust. I don't have any use for Harper, or any on his front bench. They are, the bunch of them, bellowing, bellicose, buffoons, and I dearly hope to see them disappear up their own Points of Order.
It won't be Liberal, because the candidate is a twit. I'll say no more than that.
NDP? The most likely, and probably, most effective prospect for MP. But the platform, and the leader, are...um, unlikely, ungainly, unrealistic. Romantic though, and Layton was good with the platform-under-the-sweater quip.
Green is good. I like the leader, and I like the platform, but the candidate was uninspiring.
I liked both the Marxist-Leninist lady, and the Communist guy, a lot, but I don't do "isms" of any kind. I might vote for one of them though, just to please my unruly rebel side.
The Libertarian was a joke. I was probably the only one who clapped for him. Hey, he had the guts to run, and paid the registration fee, so I thought he deserved some recognition.
So there you have my point of view. I hope that I have not gagged too many with my rants. I hope that you have read beyond my own diatribes, and cast an informed ballot - no matter who it is for. I just hope that it isn't for those guys - you know who. I am glad to live in a riding where my vote will have little effect on whether or not a Con gets in. I'm glad to not live in Van.-Quadra, or other of those tight ridings. Then I would feel compelled to hold my nose.
I thought that the quote below (from MacLeans) summed it up more concisely than I.(but with regrettable formatting)
comment by RyanD on Sunday, October 12, 2008 at 1:48 pm:Then there was this from a Conservative blog which does not deserve a link. I thought it only fair to show the Conservative mindset too. I had to recognise the clever word play, even if the message is rancid.
Soccermom- “Harper’s too good of a PM for this whining, entitlement-driven country anyway.”
Well, apperantly you and Harper both agree on the fact that you hate the country he wants to lead (see “failed European welfare state comments, etc…). Geee….I wonder why Canadians wouldn’t want a PM who doesn’t like them?!
Just to be clear, what do you use as your criteria for “good”? Is it the plagiarism (also see- “theft”), the desire to send adolescents to jail for life (except in Quebec because it might lose him votes), the support for a disasterous war (Iraq) that he now denies even though it is on the record. Maybe it is putting people in cabinet who leave top secret documents with their criminally connected girlfriends or tell business not to invest in the country’s largest province. Or, perhaps “good” is what we use to describe a sitting PM who breaks his own election law to call an election that will likely give us what we had before he called the election (thus wasting 300 million dollars). On the other hand I was very ammused by his choice to run constant attacks on his opponant while saying little or nothing about his own plan and only releasing a minimal platform with 5 days left before an election. Of course, who can forget the greatness that led to squandering a nearly 12 billion dollar surplus on tax cuts that NO reputable economist think will help (though it is a good way to buy people’s votes). Wait…the really good part must be when he tried to bribe a dying man to vote with his party (supreme class there) or the fact that he and his party defrauded tax payers to help fund their ads in 2006. Maybe he was at his best when he gave his MPs instructions to intentionally obstruct the work of the House of Commons (Canada’s main instrument of democratic expression).
The other leaders may beI’ll tell you this much- the only time I’ll ever say “Good” about Harper is when I say “Good Riddance!”
Then again I am probably just being a whiney and entitlement driven. The nerve of me thinking I am entitled to have an honest, decent human being as my PM. You’re right Stevie is far too “good” for me! (sic)
Friday, October 10, 2008
The Vancouver real estate market does not seem to be pricing in the new realities yet. This place on E. 39TH AV, Fraser, is one of the 24 places in all of East Vancouver that is priced under $500K It's for sale at $499,000.00. Are they freaking serious? The blurb says;
This existing 3 level home offers more square footage than can be re-built on this 2947 sq. ft. lot. House is in need of structural work & updating. However, character features such as original staircase, doors, window casings, & floor mouldings could be highlighted after renovation.Character features? Floor mouldings can be highlighted? Wow. Hold me back. I still have a few days to get a 0%/40. Building codes won't even let you build something of this modest size. And, can it really be called "three level" with a straight face?
Somebody ought to tell the vendor that the TSX is down over 40% since July, and that it lost 16% in the last week alone. People have lost 30% of their retirement funds. Cut the price on this disaster to $250K, and get the bleeding over with. The MSM described today as a "bloodbath". The pigs are being slaughtered. Don't be a pig.
Then there is this beauty for $508K. note: it's a 3 level, 3 bedroom palazzio too.
Good starter, renovate or build your home. CD1 Zoning. This 3 level 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath solid home is situated in desirable Renfrew Height Area, South facing with view potential. Quiet neighbourhood, central location.You will get an 800 sq' bigger lot than the one above, and this one in is the desirable Renfrew Height Area (sic).
This is no sport at all. Van. RE is frozen in time like so much ABCP. Somebody complained about my pictures, and posts the other day, and suggested that I was becoming deranged. If all of this madness seems "normal" to everyone else, then I am truly unhinged. I must be suffering some kind of Joan of Arc, or Nostradamus delusion. Is this some kind of reality TV show? Like that Jim Carrey film where he lives in a TV set?
It was weird switching channels. Somehow, looking at RE right now seems more of a madness than looking at national, and world events.
...the more they stay the same.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Did I hear someone say;
- The TSX closed at 9600 - down 4.5% on the day? That is just a measly 1/3 from the peak. Oil down, and the dollar down.
Batten the hatches, this is just the leading edge of the storm. The market was as over-valued when flirting with 15,000 as the RE prices were last May, so it is no big surprise. I feel that if things hadn't been messed with so much by scoundrels and fools, the TSX is about where it should have been. But it will see 6,000 or less before it turns back. (It might not ever do that.)
- Harper say to Peter Mansbridge that there are good buying opportunities in the stock market? For who? His mother? Does he not read newspapers? Have advisors? If he does read a paper, it must be The Stars and Stripes. His advisors must want to see him fail. Who calls an election without having a platform?
Harper is completely out to lunch, and it seems to be showing in the public sentiment. What foolishness will he utter next? Let them eat corn flakes!? His narcissistic nature leads him to believe in the Noble Lie, and that he is smarter than everyone else. He is clever, but that ain't smarts. Duceppe pinned him down in the debates. So did May. Layton openly laughed at him. Dion made him look like a chump.
When Mansbridge interviewed Harper, he swallowed hard a few times when Mansbridge threw the truths at him. Harper forced this election because he knew that the sheet-storm was coming, but it caught up to him, and he has blown it. $300 Million so that he could have an even smaller minority than he had, and my bones are starting to say that he might not even get that (so are some other commentators, I believe). There are around 20% of voters undecided the last I read, and I doubt they will go Cons. A coalition of the left is starting to look like a strong possibility.
- That 230 Canadian economists, teaching at Canadian universities, say that a carbon tax is what is needed at this time - even without the tax cuts? The Greens' plan would be even better, in that case.
What a sham. Harper looks the complete fool in this one. Cold, hard irony. Whap!
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Yikes! That picture is horrible, but man, the meltdown.
TSX closed below 10K, and so did Dow Jones. The $850 Billion is now a trillion, with much more to come. It's all over for the US. We are not insulated, and all of our banks are exposed to sub-prime (probably even the co-op banks). Thanks to Paul Martin (and others before them) our banks don't have the reserves to cover their er, assets. There is always the CDIC, but what happens when they don't have the cash? And what happens when the guv doesn't have the funds to back CDIC? Ask Iceland. Their guv was on the verge of bankruptcy today, until the Russians helped them out. (I know, Iceland is Iceland, but they have great hot springs, Bjork, and some high-powered, but otherwise unintelligible, bands.) A while ago I revised my TSX forecast to 6,000 from a previous forecast (Jan. 2008) of 8,500. I am wondering if that was too generous.
Mansbridge did a wicked interview with Harper tonight. He's (Harper) goin' back to the NCC next month. Christmas in a condo in Calgary. Comfy with a nice cerulean cardigan.
Building permits are down 18%+ in Vancouver. That is about $650 million out of the local economy. Things are unwinding fast, and big. I have more to rant about, but it's past my bedtime, and I'm tired and grouchy, and want my blankie. Manana.
search for Nancy W.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Interesting week, it has been. There is the bail-out down south that went from a three page, $700 Billion Bill, to a 440 page, $840 Billion Act. That is $2,545.454545454545454... per man, woman and child in the US. I would not feel so good, as an American, to be so indebted with nothing material to show for it. (And do you notice the weird numerology in that number? Just asking.) That is not going to do it though, I don't think. There are still many banks in the US that are lined up to collapse, and OJ is finally going to prison!
Of course, we are well insulated in Canada, and especially in Vancouver. The more wester you go, the more betterer you are. Case in point - the Wester Side, and Wester Vancouverer. But still, we have our problems hanging over our heads no matter what douche, Dove, Krassh/thumbupbum and Steve the Harper have to say. Last week, the Bank of Canada (our very own bank! Yippee!) pumped another $20 billion into the system to keep the wheels turning. That is only $606.06060606060606060606060606061 per capita. (morer, weird numbers!). Not so onerous as the US, but wait! The BoC has been pumping billions into the system for over a year, and bought a bunch of ABCP a while ago. So, Canadians are on the hook for a lot more than is indicated above.
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said on Dec. 21 that the country faces a greater risk of recession now than it did six months ago, as growth slows around the world and the risk of a “disorderly” adjustment increases. linkThat is old news, but still holds true.
So, I don't know if you watched the debates last week (I have had no chance to write for a few days), but it was interesting, to say the least. The professional pundits have better analysis than I can give here, but the over-riding theme for me was that Harper has still not released a platform, and continues to say that Canada is not the US, and that our economy is strong. The economy certainly has been strong - in light of commodity prices such as oil, potash, lumber, etc., but those are all falling in price, and there is a global problem. We are not insulated, and Harper knows it. My (rhetorical) question is, if there is no problem, and the Conservatives have no plan, why are we in an election right now? All of the other parties (even the Bloc) have a vision, and a plan for Canada, but the Cons do not. Maybe that is why their polling numbers are sliding.
The Liberal/Green plan makes more sense to me than the status quo plan of Harper's group. Harper misled and distracted from those plans in the debate, but his plan (as far as climate change/global warming) is to not have a real plan, and his plan for Canada has not been made public. That is because if Canadians knew what it was, it would be rejected.
I am weary of slamming the Conservatives and Harper, and I think that you must be weary of reading it, but my favourite moments of the debate were;
- Layton asking Harper why he had no platform, and wondered if Harper had it under his sweater. (I find it mighty suspicious that Harper calls an election, but does not even reveal a platform. We were supposed to be brain-washed by all of his negative advertising for the last two years, and not notice, I guess...)
- Duceppe pinning down Harper and making him admit that he had made a mistake vis-a-vis the Iraq invasion in 2003.
- Duceppe using his water glass as a prop to represent a barrel of oil, then chugging it down, and banging his glass down on the table as if it were a shot of scotch, or such. He's a real man.
I thought that Elizabeth May was very compelling, and had the biggest nads of anyone at the table. She is no flake, in my view. I thought, watching the debate, that the best possible result we could have from this election would be a coalition betwixt the Greens, NDP, and Liberals. They are the only ones who made any sense at all.
Lots of reading for you here -
The gloom spreads north - This is a must read from the G&M Report on Business, if you think that we will not be affected.
The biggest losers in this campaign? You and me
Conservative(?) supporters remind of Brown Shirts - endangering lives of Liberal supporters - who find their brake lines cut while children are in the car.
Election Is a Test of Canadians’ Conscience
critics of the government accuse Mr. Flaherty of inaction, and warn of serious troubles ahead for the housing sector and the wider economy
Show us the platform, party leaders dare Harper on economy
How News Creates “Reality”
Thursday, October 02, 2008
The pain is coming, whether we like it or not. The only question that I have is, how bad will it get, and how will that affect the Vancouver RE market? (a pure, rhetorical question) Draw your own conclusions, but the RE market was already on it's way down - before all this global doom and gloom hit. Any investor with a modicum of sense will be looking for deals in the stock market, and will be staying well away from Vancouver RE, IMHO. The tanking price of oil is a bell-weather (unintended pun), I think. Potash Corp. was a big loser today - down almost 20% - anther bell-weather? Is the TSX a true measure of our economy? It doesn't look so good right now.
So, to slip into election schtuff; Harper said in the French debate last night that Canada is not the US (yet), and that we have solid fundamentals. Like the Potash Corp.? Or, oil production? What about manufacturing (Auto workers), tourism/service, etc.? How is that doing? RE is tanking across Canada, what about those soon-to-be unemployed realtors, mortgage brokers, conveyance clerks, construction workers, home stagers...? I don't see a strong outlook, fundamentally. Harper said not to worry. OK, he pretends to be not worried, but are you? Do you have faith in someone who says to ignore the train barreling down the track toward you with its horn blaring? Are you thinking of buying a new car? Plasma TV? New computer? Buying a house? Going on vacation? Buying an Olympic ticket package? Are you going to take a HELOC, or rack up your credit card going out for dinner and drinks? If you are not, do you think that any government is responsible in saying "don't worry, spend with a big Prozac smile"?
I have to say that I didn't take much away from last night's debate. I found it hard to follow because I couldn't watch it live, and saw a translated version. The problem for me was that the translation was over the French, and my mind kept on switching back and forth, and leaving me lost. I also have a hearing problem, and tend to watch people's mouths, which threw me off even more. I felt that Duceppe was the best speaker, and that Dion is not the right guy (not because of a lack of sincerity, ideas, but because of his style, and challenges with English). Neither is Layton, and Harper is certainly not. His body language was revealing, and it was obvious that he had complete contempt for everyone, including you and me. May did well - considering that she was out of her language depth. As after every federal debate, I have to ask the same question that so many do: Why couldn't Duceppe be the leader of a national party not bent on Quebec secession? He would take it.
Unfortunately, the salient election issue is on the personalities put forth by the leaders (at least, the personality that is wanted to be seen), and not about the real issues. How shallow is that?
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
I read this quote over at Garth Rurner's blog (warning: Turner is has auto-run ads on his blog, so turn your speakers down so as not to be annoyed) and thought it worthy of reproduction here.
Harper has the manner of a man who will drive a car off a cliff, just to prove that he doesn’t need to ask for directions. Is that the kind of person you want to lead this country?Did you hear about Harper's plagiarising speech regarding Iraq in 2003? I'll let the CBC fill you in. (watch the video - about 4 minutes)
UPDATE: Here is the comparison on Youtube (2:53)
Sorry, it is from he Liberal party. I do not endorse any party at this point.
This is on the front pages of newspapers around the world today. The Cons are playing it down, but the rest of the globe is laughing at us. Harper and his government are an embarrassment to this once highly respected country. That is a big deal.
Youtube treatment of the plagiarism. (check some of the other videos too)
Hip Hopping on Harper
I don't get the March 17th reference, but vote anyhow - on October 14.
Musicians don't like NAU/SPP (on the loud side)
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Yikes! Ouch! The TSX gave up 840 points today, DJ took it's biggest single-day loss ever. Tokyo closed down 340-something just a bit ago, Hang Seng down over 400 with an hour or so to go. Stephen Harper said today that the Canadian economy has "good fundamentals", and that what is happening down south, well, we are insulated. It's different here. Jeebies, doesn't that sound familiar? I might have felt better had he been wearing a cardigan when he said it.
The TSX is down 9% today, and my memory bank echoes with the words that the losses were $104 B-B-B-Billion - out of Grampa's retirement pension fund. Out of those Mutual Funds that were sold to you so adroitly. Market-linked GIC's? They did not sound good to me, and I didn't buy 'em. Oil down 10 and a half bucks on the day. What else?
The meltdown is upon us. I made sure today that all of our cash holdings were spread out to be covered by CDIC. I would advise you to do the same. I have to say though, that I do not even trust CDIC solvency if this keeps going. This is historic. Remember it. Oh, never mind my admonition, you will remember it. Alberta's boom may be on hold for a while if this continues (and I am sure that it will).
I'm looking forward to buying a house in Shaughnessy for $300K when this is over.
Still want a Harper majority? A Dion majority? Forget it. The only hope we have is for coalition gov't. A co-operative government, where decisions are made by consensus amongst the parties that represent the majority of Canadians. Don't want to see Young People Fucking? How about All of Us are Fucked? Pardon the vulgarity, but it is that stark.
There are those who say that this is a manufactured crisis, and I lean toward that. Here we have right-wing governments - under Bush and Harper gutting our treasuries, cutting taxes while increasing spending. Harper's gov't has turned a 14 billion $ surplus into a near deficit in 2.5 years. Some say that the only reason we are not in deficit, is the sale of frequencies to cell phone companies (reaped about $3.4 billion, if I remember correctly. We would be a billion-seven in the red else). That was a one time deal. Kinda like when Campbell sold BC Rail, and tallied a surplus. And look where that got us. 400,000 jobs have disappeared under Harper's regime, with plenty more to be lost.
Watch The National on CBC tonight. It is worth the watch. There is a very good interview with Elizabeth May. The Greens are the most centrist party of all of them, but they don't have the vicious experience of the House. I think that May could tame the Liberals, and pull them back to the centre in a coalition. That is what Canadians really are. We also pull together in difficult times.
Here are some vids to relieve you from my rantings - which will continue manana. Some of the vids are amusing, some stark. A good few have tunes. I hope you like at least one. There is some really heavy schtuff to come.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
The bail-out package has been rejected in Washington. TSX crashed 900 points today.
Make sure that all of your deposits are covered by CDIC. The shite is hitting the fan - now.
Back to testerday's post...
There are lots of media to speak, so I'm cutting short my rants, and will try to entertain you instead.
First viddy is Rick Mercer on the Cadman scandal. (2:10 in length)
The second (2:52 in length) is Stephen Harper, in his own words, regarding the "financial considerations" that were offered to Mr. Cadman.
Mr. Ignatieff asked: "Is it the prime minister's position that the people close enough to Chuck Cadman to know are lying, and if so, how are Canadians going to believe that he alone is telling the truth?"
CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 27, NDP 19, GP 9, BQ 9
With their 15 point margin last week, the campaign was looking like a runaway freight train for the Harper Conservatives. However, a number of new factors have diminished the Conservative lead, which is still comfortable, to 9 points.I hope that trend continues.
First, Harper’s culture comments renewed BQ support in Quebec. Combine the Richardson comments related to immigrants causing crime and Harper’s comments asserting Dion wanted the economy to perform poorly and the gap narrowed from 15 to 9 points. These two comments represent a tenuous lifeline to the Liberal campaign.
Harper tried to ridicule "the arts" and cut funding. The CBC was once a great Canadian institution, and now is just a shadow of what it was. We have tens of thousands of people directly employed in BC's film industry. A lot of our clients work in it, and are already hurting. They (and we) won't be turning on the TV and getting pissed off with elitist galas, because things like cable are the first to go when money is short.
Speaking of elite galas;
Harper at an 18 course dinner (just hours after a 14 course lunch) at a conference on the global food crisis (exacerbated by ethanol production). (Too bad he doesn't have the class to keep his elbows off the table. My Grandma would straighten him out!)
Summit that's hard to swallow - world leaders enjoy 18-course banquet as they discuss how to solve global food crisis
Laureen Harper at the Gala Juno Dinner
Then there is the elite Conservative caucus, and Laureen Harper rubbing shoulders with every-day Canadians at a literary gala; H/t to James Curran
Laureen Harper at literary gala with Minister of Environment John Baird in background
Minister Jay Hill (and House Speaker Peter Milliken) at the same gala with Julie Couillard (she sure gets around...)
Minister Jasob Kenney and his "date" (well, he doesn't have a girlfriend, or wife.) He seems to like terrorists too. Tory MP attended rally for group on terror list
And here is the very elite Vic Toews (and his son - who's evening you paid for!) at that same gala.
In my riding (Van.-Kingsway, it looks as if the NDP candidate is the only one who actually lives here, and is involved. It looks as if the Con. candidate is not attending - he needn't bother anyhow, he hasn't a hope in hades. I have some questions to pose at the all-candidates' meeting. Are you going to your local meeting? Ask them how long they have lived there, and whether they were nominated by the riding association. I'll bet that most Con. candidates will not be present. Try sending an e-mail, or calling them. See if they will answer your questions.