Tuesday, October 07, 2008

not pretty

original image

Yikes! That picture is horrible, but man, the meltdown.

TSX closed below 10K, and so did Dow Jones. The $850 Billion is now a trillion, with much more to come. It's all over for the US. We are not insulated, and all of our banks are exposed to sub-prime (probably even the co-op banks). Thanks to Paul Martin (and others before them) our banks don't have the reserves to cover their er, assets. There is always the CDIC, but what happens when they don't have the cash? And what happens when the guv doesn't have the funds to back CDIC? Ask Iceland. Their guv was on the verge of bankruptcy today, until the Russians helped them out. (I know, Iceland is Iceland, but they have great hot springs, Bjork, and some high-powered, but otherwise unintelligible, bands.) A while ago I revised my TSX forecast to 6,000 from a previous forecast (Jan. 2008) of 8,500. I am wondering if that was too generous.

Mansbridge did a wicked interview with Harper tonight. He's (Harper) goin' back to the NCC next month. Christmas in a condo in Calgary. Comfy with a nice cerulean cardigan.

Building permits are down 18%+ in Vancouver. That is about $650 million out of the local economy. Things are unwinding fast, and big. I have more to rant about, but it's past my bedtime, and I'm tired and grouchy, and want my blankie. Manana.


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20 comments:

Anonymous said...

I am horrified by that picture. What is it?

nero911 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
nero911 said...

Sorry, I had initially insinuated that you were not posting facts, which is not true. However, your choice of pictures over the last couple of weeks still leaves me thinking that you may be on the verge of derangement. Can we please leave the abstract and grotesque pictures out of it, and focus on images directly related to our "unreal" real estate market? Thanks.

solipsist said...

The picture is of something called a nacktmull, which is, I presume, a germanic word for night mole. It looks like some kind of blind(ish) mole.

may be on the verge of derangement

Just on the verge? What pictures, exactly, do you allude to? The more observant reader may notice a link between the picture(s), and the title(s) of the post(s).

If you want editorial control, or influence, PAY ME!

nero911 said...

Er, sorry if I offend you, but this "nacktmull" picture has what link or association to the financial crisis that is causing a selloff in the TSX and the Dow?

If anything it takes my attention away from the article and makes me think of some horrid tumoured rodent from a lab accident. The wall street pic you had on Tuesday Sept 30th was on topic. This nacktmull just didn't help me get the message you're trying to portray. I only pointed it out because I've read your blog for over a year (checking in each and every weekday morning) and some recent posts seem to be a departure from the usual (and I'm not talking about the Election/Politics stuff) and are just a bit more "off the wall" than usual. It just seems that you're migrated from "creative" to "weird" and it might undermine your credibility. But you are right - this is your blog and not mine.

Mike said...

I like the pic's, that one from the other day, "JUMP you fuckers" was great.

Anyway, I think most people out their cruising financial or political blogs can deal with images without being distracted from the underlying articles. Like playboy, I read their articles and the pics don't distract.

And everyone should be "off the wall" at this point. Any newspaper front page is far more disgusting than any image of mole you could ever find.

kabloona said...

It's a mole rat, isn't it? Blind and they live in colonies underground.....

Now what do I win....??

;-)

Yeah, I caught the Mansbridge interview last night. El Presidente didn't wanna take any questions from the Great Unwashed -the way all the other party leaders did. Just wants to cruise in under the radar....get his un-deserved majority....and then go crazy de-constructing Canadian society in the manner preached by his idealogical guiding light, Tom Flanagan...

:-)

Oops, looks like the neo-Con majority has evaporated, now maybe he can explain why he wasted $300 million on this pointless election...???

solipsist said...

nero - not offended, just feeling gnarly and tempermental these days. Aren't you?

The mole rat - kabloona wins the title: Best Blogging Taxonomist - is an illustration of the "not pretty" picture that is the present perspective in all things related to money. Health care, small businesses, RE markets, jobs, savings, investments, taxation, debt repayment, etc.

Sigh. mike said it better.

Big E said...

solipsist, I say do whatever the hell you please on YOUR blog. Although I do not regularly contribute, I enjoy reading your posts. I find them insightful and thought provoking (my personal favorite was "being"). Keep up the good work!

And I agree, we should all be a bit testy these days ...

Larry Yatkowsky said...

Perfect picture for "not pretty". Seems on topic to me, but then again some of us think outside the box.

Throw a silk suit, tie and delux shoes on this little puppy and you got your average wall street junkie.

Makes Realtors look good don't yah think. LOL!

Scullboy said...

I don't know if it makes me a jerk or not but....

I'm watching this whole unravelling with a certain amount of glee. I used to work for a certain Burnaby based telecommunications company. I ran into an emergency, asked for time off and was promptly walked out the door. as a result I'm living off my retirement funds at the moment.

I'm watching this meltdown and contemplating my good fortune. I sold my stock months ago when it was (checking Apple dashboard now) yup... almost double its current price.

I guess it makes me a total asshole but I think of all those horrible people who work there, in particular the people I reported to directly. I'm watching their retirement money go up in smoke, along with the equity in their homes.

I confess to fantasies of encountering them eating dog food in the street, vitimes of their orn stupidity, greed and gullibility.

Burn baby burn.

markoz said...

Scullboy, I can relate. In 2004 I gave up searching because I thought prices were ridiculous. People I worked with scolded me and warned that prices could only go up. Well they did, but now the entire world is in a financial crisis of monumental proportions precipitated by people's absurd pursuit of real estate at any cost. It warms the cockles of my heart...(whatever the hell those are)

solipsist said...

Thanks for getting it big e, larry.

scullboy - not sure if it makes you a jerk (or otherwise), but the direction of your schadenfreude may be unfair. People who are assholes are already suffering in their own hell. That is why they are assholes. Most assholes don't realise that they are so afflicted, and are generally powerless. Rather, feel sorry for them, and even more so, for their children, who are shaped and afflicted alike, and so on.

The real assholes - on Wall St. - are true sociopaths, and obviously, are very dangerous to a civil society. The former (head?) honcho of Lehman was before some plenipotentiary or other, and was asked if he thought it was just that he walked away with $480-odd million dollars for his decade of effort, and the result of that effort. He thought that it was cool...

Now, if he took too much Viagra, suffered a priaptic embolism that broke free and entered his brain - rendering him a very rich, but otherwise drooling, vegetative fool - I might have some gleeful moments. The kids might not miss him much.

markoz - what ought to really do it for you is that you have cash, and are unencumbered by a variable rate mortgage, on a depreciating POS, that is about to reset.

Just don't tell them about the good wine that you drank tonight.

Be proud (but not loud) about your prescience, and don't forget your humanity.

sutluc said...

Interesting looking creature that mole-rat.
It doesn't look particularly offencive to me, just another piece of nature's fabric, filling a niche.

Fertile Female Naked Mole Rat said...

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think he's HOT!

Anonymous said...

Gee, does the creature looks like John McCain?

Anonymous said...

Gee, does the creature looks like John McCain?

Yeah, like Chupacabra - some kinda Devil Dog. Sounds right to me:)

Scullboy said...

Sol:

I know my dark desire to watch the world burn kind of makes me an asshole myself. I've been thinking about that since I posted (yes, that means I've been thinking about your blog daily!)

It still doesn't change the way I feel.

I think that particularly since 1980 the only way anyone has been able to get rich is by exploiting others. We now have an enormous disparity between the classes in North America. This whole meltdown is going to affect everyone, but it's really going to put the hurtin' on the "investor class"

Not to engage in generational warfare (or generaliztions) but the Boomers in my family are the most smug, complacent bunch of bastards one can imagine.

I have an uncle who got rich overcharging the NOva Scotia government for services and by getting Peter MacKay elected. Seriously. My family are directly responsible for that bastard's campaign. They say things like "Generation X is where they are because that's where they deserve to be."

As far as I'm concerned, this whole meltdown will not just level the playing field, it will give people like that a nice, warm kick in the teeth because when it's all over they'll be the ones who have lost the most.

So... yeah.... it kind of makes me an asshole to feel this way, and I know it. I can't do a damn things to change it, so I may as well watch the world burn and cheer on the devastation. I tried to warn so many others, who just gave me this patronizing look. I feel like an asshole for wanting to say "I told you so", but I still want to say it.

Maybe when it's all said and done we can build a better world from the ashes of this one.... but for now.... well like I said: Burn baby burn :)

solipsist said...

I like your honesty scullboy. It's somehow...refreshing. (and you made me laugh)

Scullboy said...

Sol,

As I go, so goes the bear market. :)

The great thing about Vancouver is I've been able to get my photo taken with Hedy Fry, which in my family is about equivalent to marching down Davie in assless chaps.

I think even bears without much money will do well. I think it's a mindset, live within your means and make the cutbacks you need.

It's all those people who have been living like they're in Hollywood that are now in deep deep trouble..... and I wanna watch em go under. :)