the pope already wrote about Garth Turner's new book: Greater Fool - the troubled future of real estate, and there is a blog that goes with it. He did a post on Vancouver (you have to check it out), and I was compelled to reproduce some of his commentary here.
I own a downtown [westend] Vancouver condo in a very good building within 3 blocks of the seawall and many other amenities. At 750 sq ft. it is pefect for a young couple or retirees. The market value is currently about 440K and I have about 110K equity. Is this type of property going to be affected to the same degree as other properties? Would you advise to sell now and wait out the coming crash?What is remarkable, is that Turner is an MP in Ottawa, and is quite vocal about the impending downturn in the economy, and the concomitant RE melt-down.
Thank you in advance,
You have a condo the size of my garage, worth $440,000, with condo fees, property taxes and other carrying costs, and you ask if this is a solid long-term investment in an over-valued market teetering at the tipping point of unaffordability? Are you serious?
This is exactly the kind of unit which has an uncertain future since there are scads of competing condos in the area, and a limited universe of “young couples or retirees” able or silly enough to buy one of them. Unless your unit is unique, with a full water view or the latest in amenities, or on the trendiest block, then there’s no reason to believe it will escape the coming correction in Vancouver prices. Get used to it. Or get out.
Mr. Turner is best known (lately) for being kicked out of the Conservative party by Herr Harper for being...too vocal. He sat as an Independent for a while, and since joined with the Liberals. He also was an MP in the short-lived Kim Campbell gov't (hey - she's from Vancouver) after losing a bid for the PC leadership to Ms. Campbell. He had a regular column in the Toronto Sun, and has written numerous articles published in other major Canadian daily newspapers.
Turner also has a political blog (link at Greater Fool), that is filled with mostly tedious comments, and Turner's reportage of events on Parliament Hill. Mr. Turner is a great advocate of Mr. Turner. Vexatious, and often vituperative, but both of his blogs are worth checking out.
I just like him because Charles McVety despises him.