Friday, September 28, 2007

the grab bag #10 - bc bud

This new "grab bag" explains the hot Vancouver housing market. Or does it?

It's been a busy week. Forgive me my absence. On top of that, I haven't got too much of a clue as to what is really going on, do you?

There have been all kinds of fallacious explanations as to why Vancouver's RE market "remains so buoyant", and over at Rob Chipman's place, a couple of knuckleheads are convinced that it is the pot "industry" that both drives the market, and maintains it. They have all kinds of different measuring sticks as to the value of that industry, and I suspect that maybe they are themselves grow operators who have bought RE with their proceeds, or they are just knuckleheads. It's as silly as the mountains, the Olimpdicks, and the mountains, in my view.

Today I heard Marc Emery (fighting extradition to the US for selling pot seeds, and also the leader of the Marijuana Party) twice quoted (on CBC) on the effect of the low US dollar on BC's pot exports. Apparently, the price that the growers garner has dropped (relatively) with the strength of the dollar, and demand has not diminished at all - despite the climate of prohibition and interdiction. I did find it amusing that it was a topic of discussion on the national business news. And so what? I smoke pot, and have for thirty years. I do have MS, so it is (now) "medicinal", but really... Reefer Madness was a bit of campy propaganda from the 1930's, but this is the 21st century. Get over it already!

The dollar closed at $1.01 something US today. Yee haw! So what?

GM went off strike after two days. So what?

$13.8 Billion Federal surplus. So what? (National debt is some $1,600 Billion - depending on how measured).

US housing market continues to slide. So what?

I really believe that the Vancouver market is sliding too. So what?

Wake me up when we are back at 2002 prices. I'm going to smoke a joint (because there is nothing like a Mint Julip and a joint).


mk-kids said...

I hear you solipsist. Without meaning to I seem to have gone on a little conspiracy tirade at the pope's... c'est la vie. I still believe it, conspiracy or not.

Stats I would love to see: how many properties sold in the last 6 years have been bought and sold by the usual suspects? What is the recent average DOM? How many people in GVRD own more than 1 property? What doesn ew inventory + existing inventory look like (ie: what is the total amount of inventory available today?) Anywho, I'm sure I have tons more questions, these are just a few off the top of my head.

Clarke said...

Waiting for the crash is a long, draining process, and except for the blogosphere, a lonely time too.

Anonymous said...

It's schizophrenic alright. In the US every indicator and almost every pundit is saying recession. But the stock market is booming.

BC, which lives almost exclusively on exports, house building and the service sector is poised for an awful blow now that the tap is being shut off in terms of money from the US, yet both current indicators and outlook have never been rosier.

It will probably go on like this for ever.


Now that cheap money is drying up you will see a change. This whole thing has been driven by cheap money. Babyboomers, first time buyers, everyone.

solipsist said...

seem to have gone on a little conspiracy tirade

Good on ye mk. There is always more to the picture than meets the eye, and if I expounded some of my more "out there" ideas, I would be "certifiable".

Forget about RE agents' involvement (in a broader view) though, most are just people. There are larger forces at play, and I have made some interesting (read startling) connections lately. Whether I have time to complete my formulations is another thing altogether.

Waiting for the crash is a long, draining process

I can hardly be bothered anymore. Absolutely nothing makes sense, and hasn't for some time. My biggest concern is that when this is over, nothing will be worth buying - except for ammo and canned goods.

The BoC quietly injected another ~ $1 billion the other day. Have you ever watched a disaster movie? They won't let you in on anything - until you can see the asteroid about to hit you. Don't wanna cause panic, you see?

BC, which lives almost exclusively on exports,...

Don't discount the weed. Demand is just as strong (unlike RE) in the US. That will keep things "hopping".

This whole thing has been driven by cheap money.

And therein lies the rub. From where (and why) did all this cheap money come? What will happen when rates return to more historical norms? As the globe is overtaken by corporatism, what will happen when the piper calls the tune?

Agh! I just got a shock from my tinfoil hat! My dental fillings are talking to me! My micro-chipped dog is growling at me! Gotta go!

Anonymous said...

"...seem to have gone on a little conspiracy tirade

Good on ye mk. There is always more to the picture than meets the eye, and if I expounded some of my more "out there" ideas, I would be "certifiable".

MK and Sol, you're just pikers when it comes to 'tin-foil'.

There are, and have been, huge machinations carried out to create the housing bubble (for one) and other monsters of liquidity. There really is no conspiracy. That would imply something hidden, or secret. When things are being done in plain sight, right under your nose, there is no conspiracy. Just because people can't or won't connect the financial dots, doesn't mean there isn't massive planning behind it.

Somebody once had a great sig line on a forum that went..."Your failure to be informed does not make me a whacko."


solipsist said...

..."Your failure to be informed does not make me a whacko."

I like that.

No doubt about the machinations, but why? (beyond the most obvious).

What is the end result? (beyond the obvious).

TILMA, Amero, NAU, and so much more. Go deeper than all that, and tin foil is a requisite.

"Don't let your preoccupation with reality stifle your imagination." (NASA motto)