Friday, January 11, 2008

slo' mo'

I was going to post otherwise, but serendipity led me to this video.

I think that it is demonstrative of what has been going on here in the Vancouver RE market. First, the predator (VANOC?), then the scared silly goose (panic buyers?), and finally, the balloon popping in slow motion.The balloon popping is exquisite, and has an unexpected action.

I like how the guy takes a bath at the end.


Drachen said...

I see your "slo mo" hypothesis and raise you a "it all started in 1987"

I think the market has been climbing irrationally since 1987, what happened in the '90s was not a bubble but a small bump which is typical of the early stages of bubble development as the people who realize that the p/e has gone out of whack get out of the market. From there on it has been pure speculation.

Anonymous said...

Silly Sally, young James and lil Lucy will grow up remembering this Subprime era as 21stC REAL ESTATE Holocaust with the Gestapo donned in suits and ties and cloaked behind respectable institutions. It’s time to redefine social moral in children’s books. A monopoly game dulls your child’s mind as the chicanery is so ingrained in real life.

Drachen said...

Hey that's a great idea Anonymous. Let's come up with a new set of rules for Monopoly that will encourage bubble formation in the market prices, winning the game would have a lot to do with your ability to spot and correctly time a bubble.

That would be a good lesson for kids :)

Larry said...

re: New Wave Monopoly
I like it too! Who gets to hold the water filled balloon? Possibly more important, who holds the pin?

Drachen said...

I was thinking something more along the lines of, there is no printed value for each property on the board. When a player lands on it he gives an offer, written on a bit of paper, other players can also put in an offer but they must bid 10% or more above the player who's taking a turn to win. If you land on a property that is already owned you can put in an offer on it if the offer is 150% or more than the last time the property changed hands (including value added by houses etc.) the holding player MUST sell... Something like that. Along with the usual buying and selling of properties it should help get prices going up until they become unsustainable.

Allow people to take mortgages too, so they don't have to pay all at once (say 10% of a property's value each time you pass go).

Hmm looking back at my ideas it would teach some pretty complicated math too :P

solipsist said...

You guys are on a roll!

Larry said...

Can I be the banker? I get to own all the property when the owners default on +150% jumps in value. Although they might not pass the smart test at pre-qualification. :)

I give this format two times around the board for the bubble to burst. No fun financial ruin in two rounds or less. Boxers have better odds.