pinch me

Oh me, oh my. I did a Realty Link search tonight, just to see what is up. Lotsa listings for East Van., but the range of properties in the same price range is surreal.

eg:


$725,000 on a 36x108 lot,

or,


$725,000 on a 33x110 lot.

Personally, I would rather have the first house. It is older, and most probably better built (if you can get around lead paint and lead solder in the plumbing, and the fact that it is on a very busy street - 41st Avenue.)

But the second one looks so...Mediterranean, what with the palm trees, and warm sunlight, and the coral stucco. (still, the realtors take pictures like drunken sailors on leave)

But really, what kind of choice is it at almost 3/4 of a million flipping dollars? Either one of these places will require (at 5% down):

TOTAL Monthly Payment $ 5,495
Household Income Required $ 206,064

If you go up to a 25% down payment, you would only need an income of $160,000...in Rast Vancouver... (I decided to leave that Rast Van. typo in. Somebody must be smoking a lot of weed!)

It really is not even surreal anymore, it's more like a really bad f***ing dream. So many of us expecting to see the dam break, but there is no apparent sign of that.

There are desperate attempts to avoid recession afoot, but will they work? I do not think so. I think that it will just ensnare a few more suckers, and make the fall even harder.

I have made several references to Garth Turner lately, and it has nothing to do with politics. Turner reminds me of a badger, or another member of the Family Mustelidae. He has been writing of economics for many years, and is very concerned about the RE bubble. He is promising to write more on that in the coming days. It is worth reading to see what a Member of Parliament has to say specifically on the topic.

One more thing:

This place that I have been watching for a while now, has been on the market for a solid 7 months. The price has been at $799k for about 4 months. They change the picture every once in a while to keep it fresh.



I believe that price is their break-even point. Trouble is, the carrying costs must be really biting hard. I reckon at least $20k has been paid to those costs already - net of property taxes.

slo' mo'

I was going to post otherwise, but serendipity led me to this video.



I think that it is demonstrative of what has been going on here in the Vancouver RE market. First, the predator (VANOC?), then the scared silly goose (panic buyers?), and finally, the balloon popping in slow motion.The balloon popping is exquisite, and has an unexpected action.

I like how the guy takes a bath at the end.

the bubble book

I bring you some levity in this time of alarm bells ringing from the south. Maybe I am just hearing spooky, dis-embodied voices in my head, but I don't think so.

Back to the levity - li'l solipsist has a book for the bath called Bubble Book, and I was inspired to take a little artistic licence with it. I re-wrote parts of it, and of course, had fun with Photoshop. Enjoy.


Young James has noticed that there are several housing bubbles outside. He begins to worry. Young James has bought beyond his means, and is beginning to understand.

Little Lucy snickers as she realizes that Young James has not noticed her Rennie The Raptor poster. Well, duh! she says.


Learnin' Lenny is doing his sums. He differentiates between mortgage payments and rent payments while Young James the Reformed explains the idea of compound interest. "Much better to earn interest than pay it" he admonishes. Learnin' Lennie wonders if Young James the Reformed has heard of market cycles. He also realizes that his $1000 bills stuffed into a soup can up on the shelf are earning no interest.


Young James the Reformed invites Scared Silly Sally out for a walk while he posts his mortgage payments. She is very worried about being priced out. Young James the Reformed begins to hatch a scheme in which he sells his place to Scared Silly Sally for "2008 prices". Scared Silly Sally has never heard of compound interest, but she thinks that maybe she is not priced out forever - what with the new zero-down, 50 year amortized mortgages (I'll be paid off by the time I'm 60, she ponders excitedly).

Stay tuned for the next exciting instalment - It's Just Bubbles Down the Drain.