Tuesday, February 27, 2007

the grab bag #5

Just a quick post re: the market action of today;... link

"You're just seeing people cashing out. The biggest group in the index is financials - it's the second hardest hit; they're like taking whatever they can and selling it,"
Is it concern about the credit bubble?

But analysts pointed out that the Shanghai market had been vastly overvalued.
Oh, kinda like the Van. RE market.

It is actually encouraging in a way that China's having its bubble deflated now," said Gavin Graham, director of investments with Guardian Group of Funds.
But how about deflation of the RE market here?

"What they don't want, with the Olympics in 16 months, is uncertainty and unhappiness anytime during 2008."
Oh, jeezuss. The Olympics thing there too.

In other U.S. data, sales of existing homes rose in January by three per cent, but home prices declined for a sixth straight month.
The ship is going down there, and it soon will here. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. On a side note, none of my holdings lost a cent. I guess I am truly a contrarian investor. Ha! Ha! Told ya so. (Grin)

"I think what people are concerned about is that you might see it continue because it has been so overdone."
But no concerns yet about the Vancouver RE market. It's pretty overdone, and the Olympics thing is sooo tired now. China may not want so many commodities now - the only other thing purportedly holding up our economy in BC.

It's coming...

I'm just sneaking this in while mother and child are snoozing, so please excuse my brevity.

I think that this could be the beginning of a global recession, or worse. What do you think?


rentah said...

I agree. This is the opening salvo.

Igor said...

I came across a study of Business Economic Cycles by Martin Armstrong. It is fascinating that the model predicted major turn dates in the markets.

Incidentally, Feb 27, 2007 is an important top date according to the model.


patiently waiting said...

Congrats on your baby

I lost very little if anything as most of my savings are in GICs. All my savings are either RRSPs or my future downpayment so I'm not taking much risk.

I can only hope for the sake of our planet (and the next generation) that some cold water is thrown on the overheated economies.

Anonymous said...


"In April 2007, nine practical consequences of the unfolding crisis will converge:

1. Acceleration of the pace and size of bankruptcies among US financial organisations: from one per week today to one per day in April
2. Spectacular rise of US home foreclosures: 10 million Americans out on the street
3. Accelerating collapse of housing prices in the US: - 25%
4. Entry into recession of the US economy in April 2007
5. Precipitous rate cut by the US Federal Reserve
6. Growing importance of China-USA trade conflicts
7. China's shift out of US dollars / Yen carry trade reversal
8. Sudden drop of US dollar value against Euro, Yuan and Yen
9. Tumble of Sterling Pound"

Anonymous said...

Congrats on the new baby. Thanks for the great info. Try to keep it up.

van-realestate-crash said...

I just wanted to bring up the subject of fundamental demand.

In the last couple of days school closures has come up again.

Apparently 5 to 7 elementary schools are scheduled to close in Coquitlam.

Seems counter to the notion that everyone is moving here

mk-kids said...

congrats solipsist!!!! great news!

wizardofozziejurock said...

Hey Solipsist, congratulations! And remember...don't let yer babies grow up to be realtors!

Demographic impacts are in full swing in the school systems. It's soon to be a major issue in post-secondary institutions across Canada. Will need to be offset by bringing in more international students but many other countries (including their own) will be competing for them as well. Makes you wonder who's going to buy all those boomers' homes...not to mention their investment properties?

patiently waiting said...

We are literally forcing many pet owners out of the city. Particularly dog owners.
As a renter, I'm glad I just own a cat not a dog. Landlords are downright militant in their anti-pet fascism to the point where I'm seeing more distressed ads on Craigslist from dog owners who are threatened with homelessness.
I hope this increasing housing supply takes the pressure off pet-owning renters. If I was a landlord, I would allow animals with my personal approval and within reason. I would actually get to choose amongst some high quality and very appreciative tenants.
What is it with the increasing hatred of pet-owners?

solipsist said...

I don't have much time to post, or comment these days, but thanks for all your commentary.

wooj said not to let my babies grow up to be realtors, and I won't. A friend said to me some time ago, that my baby would grow up to be an ultra right-wing neo-conservative - which is the polar opposite of my own philosophy. We'll have to wait and see on that.