Tuesday, July 10, 2007
OK, this is anecdotal, but I wonder if it is a sign of the beginning of the end.
My "neighbour", whose property I have written about here, here, and here (and maybe a few other places), told me today that his deal to sell his house had collapsed. It seems that the RE agent (he is also an agent) who was going to buy his place for $795K, has backed out of the deal because the person that was supposed to buy her place (another realtor perhaps?), couldn't sell their place (and so on).
The price point is in the high "low end", so I wonder if this is a sign of shaky knees in the market. Finally.
I must say that I do have a certain schadenfreude about it, as I and my family have been living in a construction zone for the past 9 months. Flat tires, noise, damage to my (rented) property, etc. It is unlike me to have those types of emotions, but...
It will be interesting to see if he can flog it without losing too much money. I will keep you up to date (whether you are interested, or not), and will probably feature the monster in the curb appall series.
So, the BoC hiked rates by a quarter point today, and the reaction was interesting. I don't know if it was a reaction, or just the normal inscrutability of the markets, but the Dow was down, TSX was down, and the dollar was down a half cent. I don't know about oil. It was interesting to me that the dollar actually went down.
The BoC is kind of stuck - with over a quarter million jobs lost in the Ontario and Quebec manufacturing sectors in the last three years (some 39,000* jobs lost just in June), while the West continues to be smoking hot. Alberta is hot on oil and gas, and BC is hot in ...construction (those Microsoft jobs are meaningless in my HO).
The housing market in the US is still in the process of shaking itself out, and I think that it is starting here.
I wonder if rates will rise again in September. I'm not sure that they will, because the East is kinda hurting, and receives more attention in these things than does the West. It's further interesting that the East has lost so much with rates low - that should have dinged the dollar a while ago, no? (presuming that it was the high dollar hurting exports)
I have a feeling that things are about to get really interesting. The bankruptcy rate is double what it was a couple of years ago, and it won't be just mortgage rates going up. How about all those HELOC's, LOC's, credit cards, etc. being hiked too.
Gotta go and pay off my credit card, and look for the best plan for my cash.
*working from memory - it might have been 31,000 jobs lost in June.
I grabbed the picture from this blog - red guy blue state - who grabbed it from somewhere else. The red guy is blogging on RE in the US, and is worth perusing.
I like the "Doh!" take on Munch's The Scream, which I have used somewhere here before.