Sunday, December 09, 2007

finding comparables

A search confined to Renfrew Heights in East Vancouver between $200k and $900k produces but 40 listings. This has been fairly constant for a while. But there is price compression. You can buy an old place (with few redeeming features) for only $100k less than a brand new place (with a couple of illegal suites), as illustrated below. Who in their right mind would go for that? Granted, the 60 year old place is probably better constructed, but there is really no comparison. The new place is bigger, and has a spectacular view of the NS mountains, and west to downtown. The older place claims a view, but does not elaborate. Somebody dumped $50 k or so into renovations, and is asking a huge premium.$699k

$799k

The new place has been on the market for a solid 6 months, with one price reduction (from $829k, if I remember), and is due for another reduction of at least $250k if they want to sell it. The renovated old-timer needs a reduction of at least $300k. Those reductions will happen.

Finding comparables is a joke.

Addendum:

I forgot to mention that these places, and many others, are sitting empty. I think that there is a huge supply overhang in SFH as well as condo's.

14 comments:

Patiently Waiting said...

I see they planted some bushes in front of the new house.

By the time it sells, they will be advertising it as a mature lot.

Panda said...

For the new house, the opportunity cost of letting it sit empty for half a year is brutal. The developer's (potential) profit is melting away daily. Another price reduction coming I agree!

Strataman said...

So if you pretend the two were exactly the same age..which one has the most unique architecture? Looks like a draw to me except maybe the cement steps...oh how we have advanced! :-)

solipsist said...

By the time it sells, they will be advertising it as a mature lot.

I think that the only advertising will be along the lines of a court-ordered sale. By that time, $400G's will be FMV.

For the new house, the opportunity cost of letting it sit empty for half a year is brutal.

I conservatively estimate that it is bleeding at least $3.5K per month. Ouch.

Looks like a draw

If only whomsoever designed these shacks knew how to draw.

Deb said...

I like the interior of the older house. It is surprisingly nice. Still not worth anything like they are asking.

Anonymous said...

I would take the old over the new each and every time...I cant abide the new "Specials"...ugly, soulless, overcrowded (if you are in one of two bottom suites...) yuk...oh when will they stop building these monstrosities and come up with the next cheap model?

trotter said...

"finding comparables"...
This site is a gem compared to the infestations that overrrun
@ RET and VanCondoInfo

“Drachen,
Immigration/Migration:Your party is based on stat till 2006,but you guys have no stat for the 2007.

Solipsist,
I have explain that lots of time in the past but every thread is different for the bears. There are more than 100k people arrived in Vancouver so far this year and 45,000 of them have bought a place for them self.”
Thumbsup said… 12/8/07 9:07 AM

“[There are more than 100k people arrived in Vancouver so far this year and 45,000 of them have bought a place for them self.]
my chinese realtor and friend told me that most incoming chinese buy a house for themselves and a condo for investment. these of course are only the buyers that he sees and may not be representative of all chinese let alone all immigrants. what do you think, thumbsup?”
wg2c said...12/11/07 9:51 AM

trotter said...

From July 1, 2006 to June 30, 2007

Canada’s population increased by 326,500 persons.
By July 1, 2007, the Canadian population had reached 32,976,000

During this period, Canada welcomed 238,100 immigrants
16,200 fewer than the previous year
48.5% chose to reside in Ontario

The increase in the number of deaths
Offsets births of 352,800

Chart 1
Components of annual demographic growth, 1972/1973 to 2006/2007, Canada
http://tinyurl.com/ywmy9c


BC’s population grew at a rate (13.8 per 1,000) similar to the previous year.
Since 2002/2003, the province has consistently grown faster than the national average.

BC posted its strongest net interprovincial migration (+ 10,600) since 1995/1996 (+ 22,000).

These gains OFFSET the decrease in
BC number of immigrants,
which dropped by 6k compared to 2005/2006
and reached 37,800

Chart 2
Population growth rates, 2005/2006 and 2006/2007, Canada, provinces and territor
http://tinyurl.com/ytzu6p


source: http://tinyurl.com/2agfzg

Anonymous said...

I'm sure you've all read this.
Just to recap.

Fed Tiptoes Thru The Tulips
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

"Unfortunately, I expect the Fed to continue to tiptoe through the tulips on the way down, just as they tiptoed to 17 consecutive rate hikes, never willing to end the gravy train of the housing bubble.

I am unwilling to give Bernanke any credit here because I suspect the only reason he is not cutting more aggressively here is to save his surprises for later and/or he simply does not understand the situation at hand. He has already shown a propensity to surprise, with a discount rate cut during options expiry week.

I just just heard Bill Gross quoted on Bloomberg: "The Fed does not understand the gravity of the situation". I agree. But if credit markets continue to act poorly, there will be more surprise discount rate cuts and surprise rate cuts as well. Bernanke does not have "kind of stones" it will take to let the market play out by itself.

The asset deflation train Japanese style has left the station. Bernanke is driving. How long it takes to get to the destination depends in part on how many detours Bernanke takes along the way."

Anonymous said...

I am not sure i understand the last post...but what is wrong with lowering the bank rates? isn't that a good think? I have a LOC so i welcome a lower rate so i can plow more into it and pay it off sooner...

solipsist said...

what is wrong with lowering the bank rates?

It sucks for the prudent, who have savings and no debt to speak of. It means that my savings will earn less interest than it already does - below inflation.

For the markets, I believe that it is an indicator of a flagging economy.

Gianni33 said...

solipsist... can u find me a comparable for this?

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/rfs/506142269.html

PARKING STALLS WILL ONLY GO UP IN PRICE! BUY NOW BEFORE YOU'RE PRICED OUT FOREVER! RUNNING OUT OF LAAAAAND!

btw, do banks offer mortgages for parking stalls? And anyone want to try calculating the price/sqft on this puppy?

Anonymous said...

Dang.

There's that house again with the eyebrows and range hood for a porch.

You really want that thing, don't ya, Sol?

Gotta admit, though, it looks better than the old-timer cracker box; with NO redeeming characteristics and absolutely NO privacy.

Only the most deluded soul would consider *either* of those places to be a deal.

If I won the lottery and had a couple mil to spend, I still wouldn't want either of them.

But, then again, I'm hard to please that way.

solipsist said...

gianni- there appears to be two spaces for sale there. The price is negotiable, and it might not be a bad way to get onto the property ladder. You could rent it out for %500/month and have free title in as little as 15 years.

You really want that thing, don't ya, Sol?

No, I just keep seeing that mostrosity, and it's easy to remember, so I follow it. It is a poster child for the coming decline.