Monday, December 31, 2007

happy new year!

Here we are at the eve of a new year. It has been a good year for me, with the arrival of a bundle of joy, and the accompanying patter of little, bare feet. The RE correction so long anticipated has not come to be realized, but, oh well. Maybe in 2008?

I would like to interrupt myself here to thank each and every one of you that have made this humble little blog a continuing interest and joy for me to write. Over 190,000 hits in the last year. So much more than I could have hoped for when I undertook the production. Thank you for sticking with me when I have under-produced, ranted, and occasionally been snarky. And thank you for the decorum exhibited through it all.

I hope for the very best for all of us, everywhere - bull, bear, ambivalent, home-owner, renter, homeless, but I do hope that all the specuvestors get burned (just kidding...sort of). I believe that we have huge challenges coming to us in the near future.

I picked the picture above because it seemed to have many pertinent elements - a sign warning of a fork in the road, a character (specuvestor?) with a target on his hat, and a generic, uninspiring metro backdrop.

trotter made a few predictions in the last post, which I will bring over here to open up the commentary. Feel free to post your own predictions, rants, kudos, kvetches, etc.

I predict a steady slide in prices beginning in February/March, much hand-wringing and recriminations, a few bank collapses, a stock market crash, and my own committal to a nut-house near you.

Have a happy, healthy New Year. My resolution is to be a bit more regular in my postings.

Let the prognostications begin!


solipsist said...

trotter said...
Wishing all a Happy and Safe 2008.

Just for fun, my 2008 predictions are:
1] Huckabee will be the next US President
2] Canada Election will be later half of the year or in 2009
3] BC Prov Election cud fast forward to 2008,
if not, NDP will return to power in 2009 and inherit all the debts and issues.
4] MetroVan RE prices down in certain areas,
while prices in VanWest and WestVan continue single digit percentage gain.
5] No of immigrants to BC to remain at the same level as 2001-2007,
but with more opting for short landed status (not taking up residency immediately).
6] No of inter provincial migration continue to grow with exodus of immigrants from Quebec and the eastern provinces to the western provinces.

I might as well throw in some tealeaves reading to round off:
A catastrophe of the same magnitude as a world-class incident that makes world-class headlines, will take place in BC before yearend.

12/31/2007 2:11 PM

trotter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
trotter said...

Perceptive picture!
Interesting insight!

Just for laugh, the same flipper now increase by $10K his unit @Infinity II

after reducing it by $40K

While hardworking small business scrambles to sell by dropping
from $135K
to $125K
and then $95K

Strataman said...

trotter "if not, NDP will return to power in 2009 and inherit all the debts and issues" I think you are right on that one, it will be RE stalling that puts them there. Then they will receive all the over budget bills for 2010 olympics, be blamed (wrongly) and then be turfed in 2013, due to a complete melt down of the BC economy. They have a habit of winning when they shouldn't. Was thinking they should just call a pass on the next election! :-)

Anonymous said...

Trotter said:

Just for laugh, the same flipper now increase by $10K his unit @Infinity II

after reducing it by $40K

How much was this unit when he purchased it? Is he in a loss situation as it is or? Not interested in it, just interested.

As for the restaurant, don't really know why that one matters. Has no RE attached to it, expensive lease. Business's would generally be bought off of the numbers, and it sound like this one doesn't have any. Small restaurants are a dime a dozen.

Paul said...

REBGV inventory charts are up

trotter said...

Hi Strataman. Loosing 2 Finance guys in 2 consecutive brainer..
Vigilant shareholders sell off their portfolios on a Inc if it loses its CFO. Cheers.

Drachen said...

I hate to burst your bubble solipsist but HUCKABEE??? You mean the guy with a psycho son who hung a dog from a tree for fun? The guy who releases psychos from jail because his priest buddies said it was OK? The same Huckabee who continued to release raving maniacs after one of those released psychos tortured and killed a teenage girl?

That Huckabee?

The rest of it I could buy but I don't think Huck has a chance in hell.

solipsist said...


That was trotter's prediction that I moved over from the previous post.

My prediction for the 2008 election down south is that Doubtya comes up with something like "Election will be suspended as per the Constitution - just a piece of damned paper - that says elections can be postponed in a time of war, and we are at war, a perpetual war, and I will be President until the War on Terror is won.", or something to that effect.

That is even odds with some of the wilder predictions that I have made...

trotter said...

"That Huckabee?
The rest of it I could buy but I don't think Huck has a chance in hell."

I hear you drachen :)
That's probably what is needed to tip things down south. Nothing surprises me anymore, not even a war on Iran.
Let's hear your input.

Scullboy said...

I remember thinking in 1999 "BUSH? The Republicans nominated BUSH??/ The drunk? The draft Doger? The failed business man? It has to be some kind of joke..."

After that I wouldn't discount anything. :)

Just got back from a trip to NYC. Did a chopper tour of Manhattan, saw three broadway shows, drove to Boston and Philly.

I have to tell you, vacationing in Manhattan (MANHATTAN!!!) is now cheaper then vacationing in Vancouver. I can see a Broadway show in Manhattan cheaper then the Vancouver Opera. A good bottle of wine is half what it costs here.

You can get beautiful, three floor brick houses in some of the tonier suburbs for about what a 500 SF condo goes for in Yaletown.

Ladies and gentlemen, we're now in a situation where Vancouver's not only in an economic bubble, we're also in a perception bubble.

It can only last so long.

Solipsist, thanks for an awesome blog. :)