Thursday, December 20, 2007

the grab bag reprised



William Sauder, formerly of Interfor, and the philanthropist who with a gift of $20 million funded the founding of the Sauder School of Business at UBC, has died. He was 81 years old.

The Sauder data has been the go-to source for RE information for many commentators on RE in Vancouver. The death of Mr. Sauder will not mean the end of the Sauder School of Business, nor the information found there. Condolences to his family, and all of those affected by his passing.

In other news;

Yesterday on CBC, it was said that the pine beetle infestation of BC's boreal forests will lead to an economic recession for BC. Carol Taylor, BC Minister of Finance, said a couple of weeks ago that BC will likely go into recession if the US does, and as the building industry in the US suffers under the housing slump south of the border. A couple of months ago, forest industry commentators said that the forestry sector is already in recession. I did not catch all of the facts, but I believe that I heard that forestry is responsible for between 2% and 3% of the BC economy, and 9% of the workforce. That seems like a small number to me, and my searches have failed to turn up more concise information. I guess that RE is now the dominant part of the BC econmy.

The numbers over at Rob Chipman's appear to be positively nutty. On Monday, the sell/list ratio was 267.09%. Bullish, or just the result of a seasonal slow-down in listings? Fish is not even bothering with numbers until the New Year, and I am not reading anything into them either. I really do look forward to Spring to see what will happen though. I believe that we have topped, and ought to see a cooling in the Spring. Note that I am not vainly calling a top though, I just think that we have finally topped.

I'm sorry for the paucity of posting as of late, it's been a rough, and very busy week. Lil solipsist is fully ambulatory, and really keeps me hopping. I hope that all have a great Crassmess, and that we see some real excitement in the New Year. I will continue to post as I am able.

12 comments:

Strataman said...

Solopist; I wrote a quick note on fishes blog but was doing a bit of thinking, if there is smart money it could very well be exiting and pricing to sell, a high (this high) sales to listing ratio could be an indicator of this exit. Why else list and sell now? My appraiser friend mentioned the prices seem to be listed just below his appraisals. Maybe there is smart money!

jesse said...

sell-list will fluctuate. I wouldn't read too much into it. Most people will wait until the New Year to start listing and this is a seasonal pattern. It does, however, show there is no spike in "motivated" sales.

J.Son said...

"I did not catch all of the facts, but I believe that I heard that forestry is responsible for between 2% and 3% of the BC economy, and 9% of the workforce. That seems like a small number to me, and my searches have failed to turn up more concise information."

9% of the workforce is a lot, if a good number of those workers are laid off, BC's unemployment rate could jump a percent or two.

solipsist said...

9% of the workforce is a lot...

I agree. I was not concise. I meant that 2%-3% of the economy seemed small.

ian said...

I'm sorry for the loss. Sounded like he was a tremendous positive influence in Vancouver.


-Ian

Patiently Waiting said...

I suspect most forestry workers will find jobs, even if it means moving. There's lots of construction projects and other bubble-related jobs.

trotter said...

Harper warns of economic turbulence ahead.

Wishing lil Solipsist. Mrs & you
"Merry Christmas & Happy New Year".

And a Happy Holiday Season
to all regulars here.

Paul said...

The rebgv numbers are up on my new webiste.

We have daily, weekly and monthly numbers for the entire REBGV. Updated every day. It is not perfect but will improve with time.

Also inventory charts for each sub area in the REBGV. These go back 3 years each. If your interested please come by. It will be interesting to see where the inventory goes in the new year.

http://www.northshoreproperties.ca

Come say hello on my blog. It won’t be like this place but I will try to add some content.

Newcomer said...

I heard 1 in 5 jobs were tied to forestry in BC.

Look at page 3 here:
http://tinyurl.com/yqt7ka
(This is a PowerPoint Presentation.)

or Google:
bc forestry "one in five jobs"

Some of this may be couple of years out of date, but look at this, which is dated 2007:
http://tinyurl.com/yqjlm4

I think if you take this and combine it with the fact that, due to the writers strike, only two US shows are still in production in BC, and the damage that the high flying loon is doing, it becomes almost impossible to be optimistic for the BC economy.

I imagine that the recession will be announced at about the same time as we see the first YOY drops in Vancouver. So get your checkbooks ready, because it may be a very short ride to the bottom.

Patiently Waiting said...

The New West shack in "Levity and Brevity" just dropped from 399K to 359K. The lender wants to unload this foreclosure, but probably needs to reduce again.

solipsist said...

Thanks for the comments, and seasonal greetings, and the update on the New West. shack.

All the best to all.

Had Enough said...

The Times Colonist if telling Victorians (?) that we should not worry because we are on an Island and are untouchable!

http://www.canada.com/victoriatimescolonist/news/business/story.html?id=2889ba88-40f3-400f-b40d-70519af63cd