they are lining up again!

Breaking local news!

There is a line-up tonight in North Delta!

First new subdivision in 25 years in N. Delta! Would that make it Alpha? It might just be the Omega for the next 25 years.

There are 25 new town homes, starting at $319k for three bedroom units. One potential buyer gushed that: "it's the same price as a 30 year old fixer-upper in Burnaby" (not to mention quite a bit more of a commute). She also said that: "things have slowed down a bit, but they are going to pick up again!"

Uh huh. Like, fer shur!
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Priznidenshul Rumble

I saw a part of the first debate tonight (by accident), and I would argue that Obama will win. He has a vision to the future, and reminded me of RFK - if a bit condescending and arrogant, pragmatic, and unemotional. But that is requisite in an American President. It is interesting how "the left" in Amurika are so much to the right. I think that he took charge though, and as a disinterested on-looker, I think he is the better choice.

McCain has empty eyes, and has too much layed down in layer after layer of hurt. I have read that he is a classic figure for a Manchurian Candidate, and I can see it. Not that he is brain washed with Communist ideology, but he is shattered, and will likely have flash backs when the phone rings at 3:00 AM. I don't think that he has had a dump for thirty years. He reminds me of Ronald Reagan.

I would say that the Vice-Presidential debate will be more decisive. McCain has the look of a not so healthy. man. The guy is in his 70;s, or so, and to use the cliche 'Palin is a heartbeat away from being President', will not be lost on many. She is going to lose it for him, in my view. I don't know anything at all about Biden, and frankly, don't care much.

I have been over-loaded with our own scene, and have loaded a lot on you, the readers too. I have lots more to say, but I need to figure out how to abbreviate things. The manifestos that I have been writing must be as hard to read as they are to scribe.

Say, do you think that Okanagan RE is set to boom some more now that there are no tolls on the Coquihalla? Commuters will save at least two minutes, and 10 bucks each way!

Credit score required for a mortgage is up to 640 from 580. That is going to bite a bit.

It was exciting to find out something new about Lower Mainland RE though!

604 it's over

or, more signs of the times


I rather liked the last post picture, with allusions to perversion, a black hole sucking in the 604 area code, y'know.

The picture for today seemed emblematic as well - a sign advertising "quality homes" that has a mean list to it. I hope they build homes better than they put up signs. It does not instill confidence. Most of us are well aware of the preponderance of cheap construction and poor workmanship these days. Having a sign like that is like going to a job interview downtown unshaven, and unwashed.

Shortly after taking that picture, I saw a roofing crew re-doing a residential roof. The truck driver did not seem to know how to operate the boom crane to load the new shingles onto the roof, and I watched in dread anticipation of a work place accident. Nobody seemed to know what they were doing - the roof was not properly stripped, and it looked as if they were going to shingle over the remaining nails and detritus from the old roof. I had to keep moving.

Somewhat disheartened, I came across this place -


and my heart sang again. I like the style, and the use of the lot. It was refreshing to see after seeing so many dreary New Vancouver Specious - er, Specials. They look to be quality built, it is apparent from the curb. I like the whimsy of the upper floor windows, and half-expected to see The Cat in the Hat lurking about somewhere. It looks like Dutch Modern meets Harbour Grace, NFLD, or such. Why can't tasteful, quality construction be codified? If we are going for density, let's do it right.

A bit further on, I passed another house under construction, and saw a guy putting up the fascia above the front entrance. It was uneven, and there was a gap. I fully expected to see the guy leave it that way, but he actually pulled it off and fixed it! I commented to him as I passed, and thanked him for making it right. Why should that make me so happy? I am just so tired of seeing crap being built, and having to look at it.

Then again, maybe I am just manic today.

levity and brevity

$399K
$485K

Pardon my absence. I have been around, but a bit under the weather, and l'il solipsist is going through a very cool stage (just starting to walk), so I am greatly distracted.

Further, there just does not seem to be enough meaningful to write about - beyond the same old/sameold, and the expected "minor" catastrophes as the sub prime debacle continues to begin to unfold. BoC seems to be pumping money in almost daily, but it has become ho-hum to the MSM and sheeple in general. The stock markets continue to be manipulated, but are the beneficiaries of such blind faith in my view. Ignorance is more like it.

So perhaps some levity is in (dis)order.

I found these gems by following a link to Sapperton, and all I can really do is laugh. An MLS search of the area delivers 3 listings between the default $200K-$900K. It really just is nuts.

I sent the links to my sister (who lives in Hamilton, Ont.) and she was so shocked that she has not replied yet. It might be fun to send listings like this to China, and Germany, and you get my drift. Emblazon them with THE BEST PLACE ON EARTH, include the video of the Welcome Wagon at YVR. That might cool the market some.

bleak friday

At least the weather was not bleak today. In fact, it was another beautiful day on the Lower Mainland. That's why we live here. We can see the mountains on these beautiful days, and dream of the Olympics, and maybe even go up to the mountains, and shout across the whole delta that we are here, and it's the best place in the entire freaking universe. Forget condo appreciation day (kind of like nurse appreciation day), we have condo appreciation years.

Is it unravelling? Rob Chipman's numbers are all over the place, and other realtors who comment haven't got a clue either. The stock markets are all over the map too, up and down, shaking out, teetering on the brink of collapse. There just has to be trouble when the TSX consistently outpaces DJ. It is like Vancouver holding out in RE when all around is falling.

None of that is real news though, the real news (on CBC, anyhow - which I staunchly defend - for all it's shortcomings) is the border line-ups as Canadians return from pumping 100's of thousands, millions even, of dollars into the American economy on it's biggest shopping day of the year. Christmas shopping early! The sales are fantastic! The coverage is breathless. (where is all this money coming from?) So sorry Vancouver retailers - we don't need you. We are rich on RE, and all we need is a few baristas to make our lattes, and a few pool boys for whatever they do. We'll just drive down to Bellis Fair to do our shopping and turn all the empty retail spaces in Vancouver into store-front condo's.

I've been hearing rumblings too of the BoC dropping rates by as much as 1% over the next year. The principle driver of that outlook is not the high dollar, so much as the economy is flagging, and some say (sorry - no links) already in recession. But is it the dollar that is putting the squeeze on the economy? or flagging exuberance? The end of a bull run? That would, of course, exclude Vancouver, because it's different here, and we have all this construction, and mountains, and the weather.

hype

This is normally condohype's bailiwick, but this came into my front door today, and there are two things that irk me (well, much more than two things...); wasted resources, and paper that comes in my front door, and goes directly into the recycling bin (kinda the same).

The paper that this advert. came on weighs 20 grams. I don't know how many people in Greater Vancouver (I refuse to use Metro Vancouver) received this, but let's say (very conservatively) 100,000 households. That equals 2,000 kilograms of wood pulp. How much carbon would that produce - from production to delivery to disposal? (I am not a Global Warming acolyte/fanatic/reactionary) It's a couple of trees that could be sequestering carbon, at the very least. Add in the toxic inks etc., and these chumps are chumps.

As I pointed out, I am not a Global Warming guy, so on to the advertisement itself...

The artist's rendition of the completed project has mature trees, and an established, bucolic atmosphere. The reality is always so much different. Selling dreams and fantasy, and I have the nerve to moniker myself solipsist. Just make it so - build it, and they will come.

The ad. goes on to mention granite, marble, stainless steel (isn't that passe yet?), custom crap etc., and 3.5 acres of private greenspace, blah, blah. Private to whom? The couple of hundred (or more) residents? Does that count boulevards, etc.? How private is it? Can I frolic naked, and have bacchanals at my whim?

Then, there are a couple of pic's - one has a soft focus framing of some seasonal flowers, and is emblazoned with life, the other has people walking so fast that anything less than 1/250th second shutter speed cannot capture them, and is emblazoned with style. Is it life, or style? The imagery is contradictory. The life suggests stopping and smelling the flowers, while the style suggests that it is going to be very fretful to try to pay for this junk.

Then, they admonish to take advantage of your Last Chance for 2007 Prices! There are only about 7 weeks left in 2007, and 2008 is not looking great for RE prices. Do they really think we are that worried about being priced out.

I also wonder at the claim of South Burnaby's fastest selling new residential community. How many new residential communities are there in South Burnaby?

Give me strength.

note: I deliberately blurred all contact information, names, etc. I will not help to promote this crap.

betting on winners

I think that sometimes we are all subject to tunnel vision, or worse, seeing only what we want to see. Here, and others' places, we focus on RE, and sometimes into the stock and money markets. But there is so much more in the big picture. I have believed for a while that there is a massive reallocation of cash going on, and have only little questions about who we are selling ourselves to. That's what a 40 year mortgage amounts to. I digress.

I scanned the images below from canadian art magazine. The first image is from Heffel Auction in Vancouver, and outlines recent sales of Canadian art. The results are as mind-boggling as the meteoric rise of real estate prices. A Lawren Harris that was estimated to sell for between $200-250K sold for $1.667M. Other paintings throughout the mag. sold for similarly astronomical prices. On the overleaf appears an advertisement for leveraging one's art collection for "Term Loans and Acquisition Financing", "Bridge Loans" and "Lines of Credit". It admonishes to "USE YOUR VALUABLE ART TO MEET YOUR FINANCIAL GOALS". Just like a HELOC.

It's all gambling and greed - plain and simple. I'm old enough to remember when the Irish Sweepstakes, Los Vegas, Reno, etc., were the only real gambling chances for the average Joe. Then came the Olympic Lottery in 1976, and suddenly we all had a chance to spend ten bucks to win a million. It went on from there. A bunch of fairy dust was sprinkled, and everyone wanted their money for nothing, and their chicks for free.

The smart ones got very rich (Buffet, ET AL), while the rest of the poor slumps are about to get very poor. This decadence is a pestilence, and a cleansing is in order.

Rant complete.

make her gasp!

It's a busy day for me, but a reader sent this in, and I thought you all might appreciate it. I did. (you may need to click on the image in order to read it)

Thanks Dan.

While searching mls.ca for info on a property I drove by today, I
scrolled past this entry, paused and scrolled back to ensure that I
had actually seen what I thought I saw. I had, and thought you'd
appreciate it as well.

I think the answer to the question asked in the text is "try to sell a
client's home with chauvinistic double entendres in a nationally
accessible database."

Cheers!

I have to wonder (as I'm sure Dan did), would she gasp at your straight-forward manliness in buying in this market, or your sheer foolhardiness.

I'm bullish on this real estate!

The Bedroom...

One day perhaps, we will all make it to the Moon. But given that the trip is probably not imminent, we thought you would enjoy a picture of what the view out of your bedroom window may one day look like. Here it is: (moonshop.com)

Back in December I wrote about the next boom in real estate here. At that time, NASA announced plans to build a permanent base on the Moon. The idea is to have a base that can be used for further forays into space (Mars is on the agenda), and to facilitate the exploitation of resources present there. One of those resources is Helium3, which can be used in nuclear fusion to provide clean energy here on Earth. With oil taking such a precipitous tumble this last week, people may be thinking less of alternative energy sources. But that's not the end of it - not by a long shot.

There is a group called The Lunar Embassy selling plots on the Moon. You can buy one, I can buy one, anyone can. The "Head Cheese" of the Lunar Embassy is a guy named Dennis Hope, who in 1980 went to his local US Governmental Office for claim registries, the San Francisco County Seat, and made a claim for the entire lunar surface, as well as the surface of all the other eight planets of our solar system and their moons (except Earth and the sun). Obviously, he was at first taken for a crackpot, until, 3 supervisors, 2 Floors and 5 hours later, the main supervisor accepted, and registered his claim. link Is he a crack-pot? A pot-head? A crack-head? Can't say, but he purportedly was awarded a Prestigious Republican Gold Medal for his derring-do. It's a pretty bizarre tale all-in-all, but the guy does seem to make sales, so he is making money. He even charges a "lunar tax" on all purchases.

Now supposedly, NASA has said that Mr. Hope has no right to sell these plots, but it seems to me that the UN, Russia, US, have made no objections, and as stated above, Mr. Hope purportedly won a gold medal from Congress, so who the flak does NASA think they are? netcheck.com (the Better Business Bureau for the Internet) says that they are legitimate, and Moonshop reports that a couple of Presidents of the United States are among over 1700 satisfied customers. They have a plethora of items for sale (besides Moon plots), but here is what 1 acre of prime lunar real estate will cost you -

Prime View Lunar Properties (1 acre)
Normal Deed US$ 19.99
+ US$ 1.51 Lunar Tax (tax payable only once)
Shipping and Handling are: US$ 12.50 (For up to 5 of them, going to the same address).

Like any realty company interested in moving product, they are even offering incentives - in the form of a brand new Chrysler Prowler to be won (they don't say whether they will deliver that to your lunar address). You can even buy a "town site" of some 4400 acres for a paltry ~$5500 US.

It sure does sound crazy (it will cost you about $900 million dollars for a charter flight to the Moon), but what if space travel becomes popularized, and the costs drop? Wouldn't you feel silly? If there is Helium 3 on/under your patch of the Moon, you could be a zillionare if you only but plunked down ~$20 US. Just don't forget to claim your mineral rights.

I'm pretty bullish on this RE. I might just buy 5 acres. I may not get to walk it (I wouldn't really want to), but my great-great grandchildren might think that I was a pretty adroit investor 100 years down the road.

Note - this guy has also laid claim to all of the planets and moons in our solar system - with the exception of Earth...

Finally - sorry to disappoint anyone who waited two days to find out what "the next big thing in RE" is - expecting that it might be Naramata, BC, or Flin Flon, Manitoba, but I've been up to me arse in alligators, and there's nothing like a little suspense!

Houston - there is no problem. Over and out.

dissecting bias

Anatomia del corpo humano...
Rome, 1559. Copperplate engraving. National Library of Medicine.
Juan Valverde de Amusco
(ca. 1525 - ca. 1588)[anatomist]

A flayed cadaver holds his skin in one hand and a dissecting knife in the other. The skin’s distorted face has the appearance of a ghost or a cloud, suggesting that spirit has been separated from, or peeled off of, the fleshy inner man.
from here

There is something about the description above that reminds me both of the spiritless liturgy the passes for reporting, and of how people that fell for the hype and spin will feel when they start to realize negative equity, and their own credulousness. And just wait until they are hit by recession (part of the larger economic cycle).

Below I react to an article in The Sun -

The upside of British Columbia's real-estate-market cycle has been steep, but the downside will not be as rapid as in the U.S., according to the real estate firm Century 21 Canada.

This is garble. They mention cycles, but don't seem to have seen VHB's graph, or any other of the like. They do not seem to be paying attention to their own numbers either, though I suppose that they just added some adjectives to the press release from the dispassionate Huge RE firm. It's reassuring to hear that our "downside" will not be as rapid as that to the south. I must have missed the news about the US market hitting bottom, and beginning to rise to new, record levels.

House prices in select B.C. markets have been flat or risen up to 12 per cent in the last year. That follows a much steeper rise of between 89 per cent and 114 per cent over the last five years, Century 21 reported Wednesday in its annual survey of house prices.

Select BC markets hmm? Have "been flat or risen" (sic) - which is it ferfuxaches? I ought to have used the spin .gif for this post. It "follows a much steeper rise...the last five years", but if prices are flat, there is no more appreciation occuring, and if they are up 12%, that is still a considerable - if flagging - appreciation.

However, while the median U.S. house price dropped 11.5 per cent compared with a year ago, Century 21 Canada president Don Lawby said B.C.'s economy is strong enough and its real estate sector different enough to isolate the province from a similar decline.

Lawby, in an interview, said that while real estate sales have dropped, B.C.'s economy has grown more than the U.S. economy, and is spread across a more diverse base than has been the case in the past.

It doesn't much matter which way you cut with this knife, it still means the market is slowing markedly. And it's only beginning. China has been loading up on copper and other metals, so mining will likely slow. Lumber market already hurting in Ontario and Quebec - and likely in BC too, they just don't report on that. But don't you worry, everything will be ok. Just take this little pill. You did know that things are different here...right?

Just what is this greater economic diversity that we enjoy, that we had not before? Condo construction? The RAV Line? Highway construction? Five years of construction projects has added a great diversity? And since when has the BC economy been equatable with the US economy? Can we compare economies, but not market cycles?

Thanks to Derrick Penner and RET for the article, and the WTF? fuel for this post.

richie the roughneck from red deer

I came across this article today. I'll only post the opening paragraph because I don't want to contribute to any feeding frenzy that destroys yet another beautiful place.

Alberta money eyeing P.E.I. waterfront

CBC - With big money being made in Alberta, and the high real estate prices that go with it, some beneficiaries of the boom are looking to P.E.I. for more affordable property alternatives.

Yesterday Kimberly asked what is the next sexy investment? at VHB. This could be one of the answers. But I think it's a crazy one. There is a reason that land is cheap in Atlantic Canada - there is little in the way of an economy, and little in the way of amenities and infra-structure.

There is Anne of Green Gables, Charlottetown (yee-haw!), and a seasonal tourism trade, potato farms that have suffered bad crops for a few years, but that's about it. That is the charm of the region. The only thing that will happen to it is negative - in the long run. The locals will not be able to live where they are born. It's already bad enough with so many having to move away.

There is some off-shore oil and gas, so I suppose that there will be a demand for experienced oil people. Will they be bringing their derricks and donkey pumps with them to mine the black gold on the useless, deserted beaches?

When will this need to feed stop? I'm awfully sick of it.




I did the photoshop collage.

let's develop stanley park!

There has been so much talk about the dearth of land to build on in Vancouver, so I have been thinking about it for quite a while. And I have a few solutions. I will be presenting my proposals over the coming days - as time affords.

My first, and best idea is to develop Stanley Park. Sacrilege! you cry. Preposterous! I hear. But my reasoning is sound.

Stanley Park is 405 hectares, or 1000 acres. A fair bit of that land is already missing it's trees, and is covered by asphalt, concrete, tennis courts, cheesy souvenir stands, etc., so the trees aren't that sacred. How about taking just half of it? Cut it, burn it, pave it, and paint it green. Greenspace is greenspace, right? Then, build thousands of exclusive condos, and sell them off to rich Albertans, and displaced Chinese peasant farmers who made it big in Shanghai.

Crime bosses and dictators always have lots of money too, and they know how to run things. Hey, instead of random, petty crime, we can get it more organized. Once the Olympics have faded into a recurring nightmare of debt, VANOC can become the Vancouver Organized Crime syndicate - headquartered in Stanley Park. We need some corporate headquarters here anyway. The other, "pristine" side of the park can be renamed Olly Park, and the Theatre Under the Stars can do laser shows and re-run Laurel and Hardy films. It would be a hit.

I think the condo development could be pretty cool. Turn the Aquarium into a fitness centre - it already has a pool. Just think of the superstars that we could attract. Rich people would be willing to spend tens of millions of dollars on pool-side condos. Bub Rainy would have a great time marketing that. Pamela Anderson could be the icon. Local girl, animal lover, etc.

'Swim with the Dolphins! Ride a Beluga! Feed the Seals! Play with the otters!

Only the incredibly wealthy and smart and beautiful people will get a chance at this opportunity.

If you are none of the above, you can move to Pincher Creek'

I've already got tons of ideas for the circulars.

This could be you!


No need for pets - these are cuter, and are thrown in by the developer as an incentive.

The lighthouse would make a very cool, very tony condo conversion.

The Miniature Railway could be extended to the Rav Line to make airport access a breeze for the priveleged.

Siwash Rock obstructs some of the views, but it could be removed, and the materials used in construction - thereby making construction costs much less expensive.

I could go on and on (and I am), but you get the idea.

Any thoughts?

Next edition will feature Queen Elizabeth Park






(I did the photoshop image of Pam and the pups.)

silver lining

I've been on a bit of a tirade the last few days. Time to soften it up a bit...

The good news about the monsoons that fouled the city's drinking water is that it translates into snow on the Coast Mountains. That translates into Grouse, Cypress and Whistler ski hills opening a couple of weeks early. Grouse has 108 cm/43.2 inches of snow already. The weather is still a bit unstable, and Grouse has released this advisory for today:

Due to strong winds and the uncertainty of the weather this afternoon, Grouse Mountain has suspended operations for the rest of the day. We will be open tomorrow as usual. We appologise for any inconvenience.

There is a palpable exuberance to the report. We opened early, but have to close. And they forgot to check the spelling. But they must be happy after a few lack-lustre years. Any happy skiers/snow boarders out there?

Grouse reports on-going labour shortages. Hardly surprising as the unemployment levels remain low in the Lower Mainland.

Current Conditions at Grouse Mountain: (11:47 AM November 19/06)

STRONG WINDS!!!

Temperature: 3 ºC / 37.4 ºF
Overnight Low: -1 ºC / 30.2 ºF
Humidity: 76 %
Visibility: variable


Average Snow Depth: 108 cm / 43.2 in
New Snow Overnight: 5 cm / 2 in
New Snow Past 24hrs: 5 cm / 2 in
Freezing Level: 2000 m / 6667 ft
Total Snowmaking: 0 cm
Total Snowmaking in past 24 hrs: 0 cm
Total Snow Fall 06/07: 149 cm

Current Conditions at Cypress Bowl (11/19/2006 6:30:00 AM)

Conditions: : EXTREME
Base Temp: 4 deg. Celsius

Visibility: : Unlimited
Winds: : STRONG
Fresh Snow:: 0 cm
Snow Depth: (Mid Mtn): 115cm

THE SKI AREA WILL BE CLOSED TODAY DUE TO EXTREME WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITION. BOTH THE DOWN HILL AND CROSS COUNTRY AREA WILL OPEN TOMORROW (Monday) AT 9AM

Here are the Whistler conditions:

Last Updated:
Nov. 19 at 06:12
NEW SNOW from whistlerblackcomb.com Snow:
New 24 Hours 48 Hours 7 Days Snowbase
2 cm 12 cm 22 cm 129 cm
1 in 5 in 9 in 51 in
Total cumulative snowfall *Snow depths are measured at Pig Alley Weather
Station - 1650m (Mid-Mountain) on Whistler Mtn.
252 cm
99 in



WEATHER Weather:
Temp at 12:30 Winds Visibility
Peak -3°C / 27°F Strong at 28-55 km/h from the SE Variable
Alpine 1°C / 35°F
Village 3°C / 37°F (Environment Canada Forecast)

Visibility variable, alpine temp-3, valley temp 2, winds srtong from south. Freezing level 1800m and falling. 20-30 cm of new snow today, alpine high 0, alpine low-6, winds strong from south, freezing level valley (Environment Canada Alpine Forecast)

1000 acres of terrain open on Whistler
Upload and download available via Village and Creekside gondolas
Early season conditions apply. Please ski andride with care.
Watch for unmarked rocks and obstacles
Park rails and snow features available at top of Emerald Express

mea culpa

image from here

Yesterday I made a badly flawed post in which I completely misinterpreted what I was commenting on. I did not proof-read before I posted. I apologize for my blunder, and thank freako for pointing it out.

calculations

So, I was trying to extrapolate future trends in Vancouver (un)real estate as we move forward to 2010 - the Big Party year for Vancouver.

It has been said that the median price for an SFH will be $1 million by then. So I crunched the numbers, and they made me think that this is the best time to buy!

Messrs Valouche, Muir, et al have been quite conservative in their forecasts. When I punched the numbers into my trusty calculator I came up with Error: Positive Infinity (see screen shot above).

Where did I go wrong?

spin

Spin it up!

Headline in the Glum and Maladroit Sunday declares Bidding wars disappearing in Vancouver.

It sounds like good news at first. Or is it bad news? Depends on the spin.

I liked this caveat -

Nobody is talking about a crash. Limited land supply, population growth, the 2010 Winter Olympics and a strong regional economy all point to long-term healthy housing demand. But there is a sense the air is leaking out of what had become an overinflated market.

I don't know about that, a lot of people are talking about a crash. The only ones not talking about it are the drunk on appreciation of the last few years, and the just plain drunk. Okay, the vested interests in general. And there is that limited land thing, the Olympics, and the (temporarily) healthy regional economy.

I like this one too -

“On the Labour Day weekend, I sold a house in Shaughnessy for $300,000 over listing [price] with 10 offers,” Macdonald Realtors agent Lorne Goldman says.

Great, 2 1/2 months ago a home sold for over asking. Well maybe they listed at $500k under assessed. Then the aside -

“Those days are becoming less frequent.”

I smell the first inkling of capitulation there.

But anybody hoping that prices may come back within reach for first-time buyers is likely to be disappointed. Slowdown or no, Vancouver real estate remains too expensive for many.

Yet they talk about population growth as part of the formula. Is it possible that there can not be a first time buyers' market anymore? Is Vancouver just going to go into stasis? A ridiculous assertion.

A search for a single-family, detached home under $600,000 on Vancouver's west side yields three listings all on land leased from the Musqueam Indian Band... A heritage home in Mount Pleasant is listed at $799,000, despite having suffered a fire last year.

here they resort to list prices (as if they will get those now), and focus on VW. They're talking like a DJ, but not really saying anything (neither am I, but I am having fun).

“Affordability is a big issue in Vancouver. And affordability is likely getting worse at a [September] rate of increase of nearly 17 per cent. Because there's very little chance that the income growth will grow at the same rate,” says Craig Alexander, deputy chief economist with TD Economics. He anticipates the rate of price increases will continue to slow.

“Twelve months from now, I would bet that home price growth in Vancouver would be in the single digits. That's not a terrible outcome, that's a healthy income.”

Try negative double digits boffin. When will we see them start comparing to 1992 prices to show how well we are doing?

Rick Valouche, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, says the market is becoming more balanced. And this year's total sales are on track to surpass last year's record total, he says.

And Canada is on track to meet emissions reductions too.

Some buyers might be sitting on their hands as they assess whether wobbles in the U.S. housing market will affect Vancouver, says Bob Rennie, whose Rennie Marketing Systems sells Lower Mainland condominiums like proverbial hotcakes. U.S. housing prices took their biggest drop in 35 years in September.

But that won't happen here. Why?

But after a few months, those buyers will be back in, Mr. Rennie predicts, driven by factors that include the coming the 2010 Olympics, a shortage of land and the perception of Vancouver as a safe place to invest.

Indeed. Much safer than Jalalabad or Pyongyang. Oh, and did you notice? Rennie drags out the Olympics and the shortage of land again. I guess everything will keep on going up - until we face the shame of not being able to host the Olympics because of a lack of snow. Salt Lake City will benefit though. Probably start another housing boom over it.

His firm also recently sold 40 per cent of the units in a new Burnaby high-rise over a weekend.

Didn't they used to brag about selling out in a weekend? I guess people are not as bold in Burnaby. Does anyone have any Craigslist reports on what is being flipped in OMA?

And finally -

Mr. Webber, who works in commercial real estate, is confident he'll sell his house, a nearly new, three-bedroom detached townhouse in waterfront Steveston. And he doesn't sound overly dismayed that he's had to drop the price from an original $679,000 to $659,900, which is still well above what he paid three years ago.

This does not sound like a slowing of appreciation, this sounds like a reversal. I guess it depends on how you spin it.

Excuse the cut and paste patchwork, and the lack of direction, I have just been hankering to use the cool animated gif, and have been really busy.

assessed values

A reader sent this listing to me with the note:

MLS®: V617050 A/P:$539k (2006 September) +$151800 more or +39.2% above Ass value [hse# 3786]

I can't verify the assessment (without paying for it), but such exuberance to list at 39% above that.

This place actually has a big lot (7906 sqft), and the house actually looks to have some character, so it's not as stark a "deal" as some of what is out there.

How about offering 40% below assessed "value"?