frothing at the fingertips

What's he so happy about? Did he get a free kite? Or is he the nephew of the Chairman?

Thanks to the pope for the cool picture! Read his rant.

Thanks to black'n'brownedout for this link.

Inflated by the Olympic spirit

THE transformation of China's capital over the past few years has been astonishing. This year the effect will be giddying...Amid an Olympics-fuelled frenzy, Beijing's economy is booming and its house prices soaring. Many fear their return to earth will be bumpy.

Ah. What me worry? You can't lose. And I'm so giddy, I can't think straight anyhow.

Olympic cities usually experience an economic surge before the games. And with under 18 months to go before the games open in Beijing, China's economy as a whole is growing nearly as fast as Beijing's: 10.7% last year compared with the capital's 12% (its eighth consecutive year in double digits). Central-government leaders worry that the pace could be reckless, but are loth (sic) to apply the brakes hard.

I'm too indolent to look up the stats for how much our economy has grown, but it seems to me that I heard that it was in the neighbourhood of 3%. That's crazy growth in Beijing!

Communist Party ... leaders will be trying to stress how much in sympathy they are with the suffering of ordinary citizens.

Oh, so solly full you! Throw the dogs a bone.

For the past two years, the central government has introduced a series of measures aimed at cooling property markets in Beijing and elsewhere. These have included new taxes on property deals and higher mortgage downpayments. Last month new restrictions were imposed on property purchases by foreigners. In Shanghai, these moves have achieved some success (diverting speculative money to the bubbling stockmarket), but not in Beijing. Last year property development still accounted for more than half of all investment in the capital.

So where will the money go now? Off-shore. Vancouver sounds good. Golden Mountain. We buy it all. It's a global frenzy of liquidity. The only bright light that I can see is that the sub-prime market is melting down, and will take a lot more down with it. It's sad that the idea of a depression can seem like a bright light isn't it?

Speculators are betting that property prices will benefit from the tightness of land supply

Oh fulak! The land shortage thing. It had to be there with the friggin' Olympics thing, didn't It? Can I even type Olympics without being sued for copy-right infringement?

Moreover, in order to keep the city clear of unsightly cranes and dust-billowing building sites during the games, Beijing has been discouraging new construction projects. This has reduced the expected supply of properties and helped to drive up prices. Last year the total floor space of new housing projects was nearly 6% less than in 2005. For poorer residents the outlook was particularly grim. The floor area of newly launched low-cost housing projects was down by nearly 57%.

I think that loathesome regime is doing better than our own loathesome regime regarding housing the poor. Slavery never really went away, but now people are proud to be mortgage slaves.

According to press reports this week, the central government recently called a special meeting to discuss ways to tame Beijing's property market. Among its suggestions was an increase in the housing supply.

Is it just me?, or does that not make sense? Just above, they were moaning about the shortage of land, but now they want to build even more. Look what happened here. Thousands of new condo's, houses and townhouses, and the market just keeps on exceeding itself.

Officials estimate that the Olympics have been contributing more than two percentage points to Beijing's annual growth since 2003. After the games, they insist, the city's new infrastructure and additional glamour (including the egg-shaped theatre, which hopes to attract international stars) will help keep the economy rolling. The flow of investment will be sustained, they say, by further infrastructure development, and by the pent-up demand for property, which will be supported by a continuing large influx of migrants from the countryside.

La la la. Guns and roses and sweet dreams in a shovel. Pent up demand, and glamourous peasants flocking to Beijing on their ways to Aurean Mountain to partake in our Aquarian Sporting Event, in the town between Pemberton and Squamish, in the year between 2009 and 2011. (That is as clear as I can be, because it seems that the season between fall and spring has been copy-righted - along with quite a few other words and place names - including that word for the distraction involving boards, cards and chance, hockey, basketball, head, etc.. The one that starts with a G, and has an A, an M, an E, and an S.)

But some observers are worried. ...two Beijing academics...said the end of the Olympics would coincide with a cyclical downturn in China's economy, exacerbating the risk of a post-Olympics slump in the capital. Beijing's Olympics-related spending of around $35 billion, they calculated, would make up more than 43% of the total for all the games since 1976. This could make the post-Olympics investment downturn all the more pronounced—especially if the speculators are busy bailing out.

No worries here though, that kinda shite does not happen here. And, there aren't that many speculators...

So, I think that we are competing with the City of Beijing for the place that everyone wants to be. And we don't have no stinking French-designed, egg-shaped theatre to attract international stars. We couldn't even give the Ford Theatre enough business to keep it going. Beijing is building a mag-lev train system for it's festival, and the network is planned country-wide. We get the RAV, lose BC Rail, and watch almost weekly derailments. Third World Class.

Excuse my cynical rant. I'm tired. I will have another rant for you in the coming days.

I'm bullish on this real estate!

The Bedroom...

One day perhaps, we will all make it to the Moon. But given that the trip is probably not imminent, we thought you would enjoy a picture of what the view out of your bedroom window may one day look like. Here it is: (moonshop.com)

Back in December I wrote about the next boom in real estate here. At that time, NASA announced plans to build a permanent base on the Moon. The idea is to have a base that can be used for further forays into space (Mars is on the agenda), and to facilitate the exploitation of resources present there. One of those resources is Helium3, which can be used in nuclear fusion to provide clean energy here on Earth. With oil taking such a precipitous tumble this last week, people may be thinking less of alternative energy sources. But that's not the end of it - not by a long shot.

There is a group called The Lunar Embassy selling plots on the Moon. You can buy one, I can buy one, anyone can. The "Head Cheese" of the Lunar Embassy is a guy named Dennis Hope, who in 1980 went to his local US Governmental Office for claim registries, the San Francisco County Seat, and made a claim for the entire lunar surface, as well as the surface of all the other eight planets of our solar system and their moons (except Earth and the sun). Obviously, he was at first taken for a crackpot, until, 3 supervisors, 2 Floors and 5 hours later, the main supervisor accepted, and registered his claim. link Is he a crack-pot? A pot-head? A crack-head? Can't say, but he purportedly was awarded a Prestigious Republican Gold Medal for his derring-do. It's a pretty bizarre tale all-in-all, but the guy does seem to make sales, so he is making money. He even charges a "lunar tax" on all purchases.

Now supposedly, NASA has said that Mr. Hope has no right to sell these plots, but it seems to me that the UN, Russia, US, have made no objections, and as stated above, Mr. Hope purportedly won a gold medal from Congress, so who the flak does NASA think they are? netcheck.com (the Better Business Bureau for the Internet) says that they are legitimate, and Moonshop reports that a couple of Presidents of the United States are among over 1700 satisfied customers. They have a plethora of items for sale (besides Moon plots), but here is what 1 acre of prime lunar real estate will cost you -

Prime View Lunar Properties (1 acre)
Normal Deed US$ 19.99
+ US$ 1.51 Lunar Tax (tax payable only once)
Shipping and Handling are: US$ 12.50 (For up to 5 of them, going to the same address).

Like any realty company interested in moving product, they are even offering incentives - in the form of a brand new Chrysler Prowler to be won (they don't say whether they will deliver that to your lunar address). You can even buy a "town site" of some 4400 acres for a paltry ~$5500 US.

It sure does sound crazy (it will cost you about $900 million dollars for a charter flight to the Moon), but what if space travel becomes popularized, and the costs drop? Wouldn't you feel silly? If there is Helium 3 on/under your patch of the Moon, you could be a zillionare if you only but plunked down ~$20 US. Just don't forget to claim your mineral rights.

I'm pretty bullish on this RE. I might just buy 5 acres. I may not get to walk it (I wouldn't really want to), but my great-great grandchildren might think that I was a pretty adroit investor 100 years down the road.

Note - this guy has also laid claim to all of the planets and moons in our solar system - with the exception of Earth...

Finally - sorry to disappoint anyone who waited two days to find out what "the next big thing in RE" is - expecting that it might be Naramata, BC, or Flin Flon, Manitoba, but I've been up to me arse in alligators, and there's nothing like a little suspense!

Houston - there is no problem. Over and out.

an utopian ideal

I heard a fellow speaking on TV a few nights ago who was making New Year projections, and he went further than just 2007. Some of what he said was whacky - which got my own whacky ideas going. He spoke of peak oil (yawn), but one of the things he said was that he believed that by 2020, the personal automobile would be but a memory. Being that I had just posted in a nostalgiac vein, I mentally rambled around that idea.

I can't remember as far back as the time when most urbanites had not personal vehicles, but it wasn't that long ago, and it is more of a North American phenomenon anyhow. So I wondered - would I be able to live comfortably without a vehicle? No, I would not. Why? Because transit sucks in Vancouver. It really does, and the gov'ts have no readily apparent interest in solving that problem in an effective manner. The RAV line is a case in point. I won't rant about that here - because I'm going off-topic on myself... Maybe we will all have electric buggies of some type - I don't care - so long as I can still get around effectively.

Now, what if we reclaimed all of the venal residential streets and built in-fill housing on them? Perhaps give the landholders on those streets the opportunity to buy the land in front of their homes from the city and build small, affordable homes on them? The City could retain title to the sidewalks and boulevards to maintain access. Streets are 33 feet wide, which is a standard lot width. It would hopefully create more green space too, and the city would save millions every year on street maintenance. The laneways would be retained by the city for services - and for yer electric buggy. The money raised from land sales would be put towards an effective transit system a la some exemplary European and Asian cities.

I photoshopped the above pic as an amusement - to help me envision such a street. The result would be world class. We would attract the best of companies to situate their head offices here. Land values would be stratospheric. This city would become the most desired place in the world to live. I'm writing the copy in my head now - The bold can move to Mexico City or Detroit. The smart, peaceful, content money lives in Vancouver - The Garden Paradise on the Pacific.

It seems extreme at first blush, but the City already has some vision of a liveable city, and changes will come whether we like it or not. In the long run, I think we will like it.

The crazy weather has the environment on everybody's minds, and gov'ts will react. Whether (no pun intended) they react with vision remains to be seen.

stanley park and the crown jewel thief

Wow! What a difference a few days makes. That wind storm/hurricane that passed through on Friday has ripped the jewel of Stanley Park from Vancouver's crown.

Thousands of trees were blown down, ripped asunder, etc. I saw news reports in which people were in tears. The Parks Board does not have the money to carry out a clean-up, and there has been talk of logging companies being offered the wood for free if they come in and help with the clean-up.

It is ironic that I did a post a few weeks ago in which I suggested that Stanley Park be logged and developed to alleviate Vancouver's "land shortage", and not long after, in what seems a strange prescience, that is happening - right down to the logging crews, and talk on the radio (CBC today), of using the lumber to "help with the housing crisis"...

The area that boasts the train and concession stands was dense forest until 1962, when another fierce storm cleared that area. I had nothing to do with what has happened since. Honest! But perhaps my tongue-in-cheek idea is not so far-fetched now. It will be a good hundred years before Stanley Park resembles what it did until just last week.

The Parks Board is talking of community tree planting bees to "replace" what has been lost. The park is closed, and the public has been asked to stay away while the clean-up is carried out. I have heard mention of a year being necessary to do so.

It is known that many homeless people live in the park, and not all have been accounted for. It is possible that some lie beneath the wreckage, though that has not been confirmed.

Stanley Park is the heart of Vancouver - much as Central Park is to NYC (though Stanley Park was much more magnificent). Both parks have about 8 million visitors a year, with Stanley Park being slightly larger in area. Both are world-famous tourist attractions. Stanley Park will not attract so many now, I don't think.

What fierce wind will blow through the Vancouver real estate market and cause it to crash like so many trees did last Friday?

Images from various sources - Flickr, CBC, CTV. I have not had the chance to get down there and get my own photo's, and have not found too many on the 'net.

Update:

The latest word from the Parks Board, and the police, is that there are about 20 people known to be living in Stanley Park, and all have been accounted for.

Apparently, 9 of every 10 trees in the park were blown down (in the hardest hit parts. No word on what percentage of the park that is), or otherwise destroyed. It's a crying shame. The footage that I have seen reveals extraordinary damage. Entire sections of pavement along the seawall ripped up and blown away, landslides, etc.

richie the roughneck from red deer

I came across this article today. I'll only post the opening paragraph because I don't want to contribute to any feeding frenzy that destroys yet another beautiful place.

Alberta money eyeing P.E.I. waterfront

CBC - With big money being made in Alberta, and the high real estate prices that go with it, some beneficiaries of the boom are looking to P.E.I. for more affordable property alternatives.

Yesterday Kimberly asked what is the next sexy investment? at VHB. This could be one of the answers. But I think it's a crazy one. There is a reason that land is cheap in Atlantic Canada - there is little in the way of an economy, and little in the way of amenities and infra-structure.

There is Anne of Green Gables, Charlottetown (yee-haw!), and a seasonal tourism trade, potato farms that have suffered bad crops for a few years, but that's about it. That is the charm of the region. The only thing that will happen to it is negative - in the long run. The locals will not be able to live where they are born. It's already bad enough with so many having to move away.

There is some off-shore oil and gas, so I suppose that there will be a demand for experienced oil people. Will they be bringing their derricks and donkey pumps with them to mine the black gold on the useless, deserted beaches?

When will this need to feed stop? I'm awfully sick of it.




I did the photoshop collage.

let's develop stanley park!

There has been so much talk about the dearth of land to build on in Vancouver, so I have been thinking about it for quite a while. And I have a few solutions. I will be presenting my proposals over the coming days - as time affords.

My first, and best idea is to develop Stanley Park. Sacrilege! you cry. Preposterous! I hear. But my reasoning is sound.

Stanley Park is 405 hectares, or 1000 acres. A fair bit of that land is already missing it's trees, and is covered by asphalt, concrete, tennis courts, cheesy souvenir stands, etc., so the trees aren't that sacred. How about taking just half of it? Cut it, burn it, pave it, and paint it green. Greenspace is greenspace, right? Then, build thousands of exclusive condos, and sell them off to rich Albertans, and displaced Chinese peasant farmers who made it big in Shanghai.

Crime bosses and dictators always have lots of money too, and they know how to run things. Hey, instead of random, petty crime, we can get it more organized. Once the Olympics have faded into a recurring nightmare of debt, VANOC can become the Vancouver Organized Crime syndicate - headquartered in Stanley Park. We need some corporate headquarters here anyway. The other, "pristine" side of the park can be renamed Olly Park, and the Theatre Under the Stars can do laser shows and re-run Laurel and Hardy films. It would be a hit.

I think the condo development could be pretty cool. Turn the Aquarium into a fitness centre - it already has a pool. Just think of the superstars that we could attract. Rich people would be willing to spend tens of millions of dollars on pool-side condos. Bub Rainy would have a great time marketing that. Pamela Anderson could be the icon. Local girl, animal lover, etc.

'Swim with the Dolphins! Ride a Beluga! Feed the Seals! Play with the otters!

Only the incredibly wealthy and smart and beautiful people will get a chance at this opportunity.

If you are none of the above, you can move to Pincher Creek'

I've already got tons of ideas for the circulars.

This could be you!


No need for pets - these are cuter, and are thrown in by the developer as an incentive.

The lighthouse would make a very cool, very tony condo conversion.

The Miniature Railway could be extended to the Rav Line to make airport access a breeze for the priveleged.

Siwash Rock obstructs some of the views, but it could be removed, and the materials used in construction - thereby making construction costs much less expensive.

I could go on and on (and I am), but you get the idea.

Any thoughts?

Next edition will feature Queen Elizabeth Park






(I did the photoshop image of Pam and the pups.)