reaction

image from here

Great deals out there

Vince sent me an e-mail asking for my reaction to the article linked above. Thanks for the e-mail Vince, I appreciate all e-mails.

I thought it to be a well written article. It had well placed platitudes -

I have heard both doomsday predictions and rosy outlooks. From this, I conclude that right now people are looking for direction. They are looking for some semblance of where the market is going, when the opportunities will emerge and how to best act on those events. (sic)

biased factoids -

While I cannot predict the short term fluctuations of the market I can offer insight based on MPC Intelligence's experience observing and documenting Metro Vancouver's development market.

I can provide some simple facts about the current market that will better allow consumers to sort through the fact and the fiction in the months ahead. (sic)

fallacious mythology -

The Chinese proverb says, "May you live in interesting times." (I have dealt with that before) (sic)

acronymic company titles -

MPC Intelligence... (and they are, who?),

and generally unbiased positivity. Vapid writing for the vapid and vacillating venture capitalists who still have way too much money to lose.

From a Google search for MPC Intelligence - MPC Intelligence reminds our customers that we are here to help in every way shape and form. We are working near round the clock to deliver ..., and - MPC Intelligence assumes no responsibility for inaccuracies provided by the ... MPC Intelligence is not responsible for the privacy practices or content of ... I am always so encouraged when a marketing group has disclaimers in their headlines. "Near round the clock", no less... Hang on, I'm going to give them a call... OK, so Jennifer Podmore (the author of the Vancouver Sun "article"), is a Managing Partner of MPC Intelligence! Qu'elle surprise! Another great surprise - MPC Intelligence is not really available around the clock... I called at 12:45 AM, and was advised that their business hours are "from 9-5, Monday through Friday". MPC Intelligence - contact

So, Vince, I think that the "article" is another piece of shill from the Vancouver Sun. A pumper for the developers is trying to get you to buy. Why even read it? My own take is that, if prices have retreated by 15%, they have another 35% to go - minimum. And that is if there is not a depression. If that happens, see the previous post featuring Detroit "mansions" for three hundred dollars.

I will not eviscerate the "article" further, that would be unseemly.

See, I'm a "journalist" too! All it takes is Google!

blah, blah, blaffelgab

Home price slide may be over-stated.

Canadian home prices cooled last month, but the depth of the correction may have been exaggerated by distorted data, says...TD Securities Inc.

The average price of a resale home across the country's 25 major markets fell by an estimated 6.2 per cent year-over-year in September, according to a report last week from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The decline was larger than many market watchers had expected, and added to fears the Canadian housing market could go into a U.S.-style freefall.

However the price drop was led by a 43 per cent plunge in the number of homes sold last month in Vancouver, the country's most expensive market.

“The crux of the issue is that unless the underlying cities are properly weighted...the results can be biased by dramatic changes in the volume of the sales in certain cities,” said the report by TD economists Millan Mulraine and Eric Lascelles.

Currently, the average existing home price is calculated by using an average that gives each city a weighting based on its contribution to overall sales, Mr. Mulraine said. TD recalculated the data by fixing the weighting to last year's data instead, which is a more standard method of calculating year-over-year comparisons for economic data, he added.

Under the new weighting system, last month's average existing home price decline would be a more moderate 1.3 per cent from Sept. 2007, the TD report said.

Here we go; if you don't like the numbers, just change 'em, or at least, change the way they are interpreted. This same thing has been done with inflation numbers, unemployment numbers (if you are not receiving benefits, or have given up in despair, you are not unemployed!), and who knows what else. It is just so much Newspeak - a la 1984. The stock market has not really crashed since July, it is up significantly since 1934! Trillions have been made! You are not really older than you were 20 years ago, your hair is not grey, and you don't really weigh more than you did in high school - you are actually younger than your parents! (and your hair less grey), and you weigh a lot less than Luciano Pavarotti! There, don't you feel better now?

Prices 8% less than last year are prices 8% less: who gives a flying fig what the volume of sales is?

talkies

BREAKING NEWS - 12:56 PM Monday,Sept. 29, 2008

The bail-out package has been rejected in Washington. TSX crashed 900 points today.

Make sure that all of your deposits are covered by CDIC. The shite is hitting the fan - now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Back to testerday's post...

There are lots of media to speak, so I'm cutting short my rants, and will try to entertain you instead.

First viddy is Rick Mercer on the Cadman scandal. (2:10 in length)

The second (2:52 in length) is Stephen Harper, in his own words, regarding the "financial considerations" that were offered to Mr. Cadman.

Mr. Ignatieff asked: "Is it the prime minister's position that the people close enough to Chuck Cadman to know are lying, and if so, how are Canadians going to believe that he alone is telling the truth?"

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 36, LP 27, NDP 19, GP 9, BQ 9

With their 15 point margin last week, the campaign was looking like a runaway freight train for the Harper Conservatives. However, a number of new factors have diminished the Conservative lead, which is still comfortable, to 9 points.

First, Harper’s culture comments renewed BQ support in Quebec. Combine the Richardson comments related to immigrants causing crime and Harper’s comments asserting Dion wanted the economy to perform poorly and the gap narrowed from 15 to 9 points. These two comments represent a tenuous lifeline to the Liberal campaign.

I hope that trend continues.

Harper tried to ridicule "the arts" and cut funding. The CBC was once a great Canadian institution, and now is just a shadow of what it was. We have tens of thousands of people directly employed in BC's film industry. A lot of our clients work in it, and are already hurting. They (and we) won't be turning on the TV and getting pissed off with elitist galas, because things like cable are the first to go when money is short.

Speaking of elite galas;

Harper at an 18 course dinner (just hours after a 14 course lunch) at a conference on the global food crisis (exacerbated by ethanol production). (Too bad he doesn't have the class to keep his elbows off the table. My Grandma would straighten him out!)

Summit that's hard to swallow - world leaders enjoy 18-course banquet as they discuss how to solve global food crisis

Laureen Harper at the Gala Juno Dinner


Then there is the elite Conservative caucus, and Laureen Harper rubbing shoulders with every-day Canadians at a literary gala; H/t to James Curran
Laureen Harper at literary gala with Minister of Environment John Baird in background

Minister Jay Hill (and House Speaker Peter Milliken) at the same gala with Julie Couillard (she sure gets around...)


Minister Jasob Kenney and his "date" (well, he doesn't have a girlfriend, or wife.) He seems to like terrorists too. Tory MP attended rally for group on terror list


And here is the very elite Vic Toews (and his son - who's evening you paid for!) at that same gala.


In my riding (Van.-Kingsway, it looks as if the NDP candidate is the only one who actually lives here, and is involved. It looks as if the Con. candidate is not attending - he needn't bother anyhow, he hasn't a hope in hades. I have some questions to pose at the all-candidates' meeting. Are you going to your local meeting? Ask them how long they have lived there, and whether they were nominated by the riding association. I'll bet that most Con. candidates will not be present. Try sending an e-mail, or calling them. See if they will answer your questions.

the jean gibson fan club

It is still a buyer's market. The number of homes on the market has increased and the asking prices have adjusted to the market. Now is a great time to buy, while Vancouver homes are at rock-bottom prices.

Good grief.They must have started adding mind-addling fluoride (or something) to the water when I was not looking. The above quote is from the Kerrisdale Real Estate blog. The picture is a screen-shot of the blog page.

The previous article, entitled Buy The Dream has seven things that jean (the realtor/author) has learned about Real Estate. They sound to be from Ozzie Jurock's latest $1599 RE Action Week-end, or maybe just from his Insider Alerts.

Now, I'm not usually vindictive, or even nasty, but I am feeling a bit ornery lately (I have my reasons). Jean looks to be a nice, grandmotherly type (In a W.A.S.P.ish way), but how can she believe the crap that she is writing? Will anybody else believe it?

I would like to see every person, who reads this, own their own home. Preferably using me as their realtor.
I hope I have nudged you to go out and buy that dream!

Now, that is just elitest. She wishes every person who reads her article will own their own home. What about the other 3.999999 million people in BC who will never read those words? Too bad. And I love the plug to use her as your realtor. (She forgot the capitalization, and TM. I am more deliberate)

I don't get a huge number of comments here, and I appreciate the ones that I do get, but this lady had ZERO comments until today (other than spam), when a bunch of readers of Rob Chipman's blog trooped over there and started laying on a bunch of snark for her. So, why not join the jean gibson fan club, and mosey on over to leave your good wishes? I am sure that she will be gratified by the traffic.

Just be nice, she is, after all, someones Grandma.

the rapture

(or, signs of the end times)



Yeah, I say unto You, my Brethren and Sistren, Ye True Believers,

The Rapture is upon Us, and I have seen the Signs. The End is nigh. Tremble, and feel The Rapture. Witness the Apocalypse.

(*I hope that any perceived heresy is forgiven in the spirit of poetic license.)

So, what are the signs?

1) The Globular and Morons had an article last Friday in which they dragged out a scenario of a couple who bought five years ago, and how they won the bidding war.

When Frances Fitzgerald and Sean Deasy searched for their first home in the up-and-coming Leslieville neighbourhood five years ago, they were not aware that properties were often priced below market value to attract a large group of potential buyers.

The piece goes on to recommend bidding at least $10k above asking, without conditions, and a large deposit in the form of a certified cheque. For every offer on the property that you know of, add $10K to your own.

'"My motto is that if you outbid the next guy by $10,000, then you haven't overpaid."'

Did the Globular writer not know that sales in T.O. are off by 26%, and that the Ontario economy is tanking? Oh. Yes. Right. They do know that, but they are trying to suck the last dollars out of the pockets of fools - at the behest of their RE advertising clients - by dragging out very old news. What a bunch of crap.

2) The Pope (and some of his readers) caught the Vancouver Sun deleting (at first) all the negative comments on a bullshite article about the top 15 real estate myths and realities. digi wrested the archives from Google, and posted them in the pope's forum. It's a laugh, in a twisted kind of way. The spin is getting desperate.

3) Statscan released a report (as reported on CBC, and filtered by my memory) that said between 1980-2005, the top wage earners in Canada saw their wages increase by 16%. Middle earners stagnated, and lower earners lost 20% (adjusted for inflation).

And how about those rich immigrants? In 1980, they earned 85 cents for every dollar a Canadian born worker did. Well, there was all sorts of hullabaloo over the years about pay equity and such, but by 2005 male immigrants were down to 65 cents, and female immigrants were down to 56 cents for every dollar a Canadian raised worker earned.

Over all this time, housing has risen considerably.

4) Paul B. has inventory reported at over 15,000, and Rob Chipman reports over 14,000. Chipman has also been reporting a sales/list in the low 40% range a fair bit lately (by my restricted reading).

Oh yeah, and there are a lot of motivated sellers and price reductions from what I see.

I feel a mighty wind blowing, but I foresee little joy for us common folks in the near future. The gas prices must be killing those who were "priced out" to the valley. By the time the Liberals stick us with 2.8 cents a litre more in July, they might have been just as well off to buy in Vancouver - especially if they put a dollar value to the commute time.

It's come undone.

Got ammo?

Blogging the Apocalypse since 2006

between the lines

I just don't get what's going on anymore. I've been trying to get some reading time in, and everything seems confused, confusing, or just plain crazy. But we all have had our fill of crazy, and there is little to say anymore, so I will give you this excerpt from the Grim and Malevolent, and let you read between the lines (I like to focus on Vancouver, but...)

Are we the ones that are crazy? I sometimes wonder.

Towers built on fast food fortune
link

A Korean entrepreneur who has built an empire from a fried chicken chain is set to transform central Surrey into one of the biggest urban hubs outside of Vancouver.

Just like living at McDonald's?

...suites for the complex near the King George SkyTrain station will go on sale starting at $179,900.

...touted as the highest residential tower in B.C. outside of Vancouver. Construction starts in two months and the move-in date is set for 2010.

Where do I sign my life away - er- sign up?

MAC Marketing Solutions...'s already got a waiting list of thousands of people waiting to buy into the development.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't sell one tower in a day,"..."We are having incredible demand.

"People recognize this will probably be the second largest urban hub outside Vancouver and they're trying to get in early."

Probably? Just the 2nd largest? Ah, outside Vancouver is the new line. Eat your heart out MAC, Rennie could tout OMA being just a minute away from Vancouver.

Mr. Yang...His vision is to transform the previously troubled area...

Sounds like Woodwards. Are they on to something?

...condo prices in downtown Vancouver are estimated to be $800 to $1,500 per square foot, Surrey's price of $450 to $550 is reasonable.

Maybe for top tier places you'll ask for $800-$1500/sq', but there are plenty of CONdo's for sale for less than that, and how can $450-$550/sq' be reasonable in Surrey?

"Surrey...The demand is there."

Whatever you say.

Mr. Yang still owns...South Korea's version of KFC...and Mr. Yang won't stop there.

"He is committed to do more things in Surrey,..may be expanding our operations to other cities.

Spare us Mr. Yang. We have had enough.

let them eat hamburger

I was mumbling about CPI, M3, inflation etc., a while back, and came across a site that discusses how CPI was rejigged. According to the author(s), it is understated by about 7%. There are all kinds of fallacious arguments about quality and safety being better, but I have never bought them.

The article is discussing the US position, but it is surely applicable to Canada.

A couple of choice quotes from the article;

Inflation, as reported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is understated by roughly 7% per year.

In recent decades, however, the reporting system increasingly succumbed to pressures from miscreant politicians, who were and are intent upon stealing income from social security recipients, without ever taking the issue of reduced entitlement payments before the public or Congress for approval.

The Boskin/Greenspan argument was that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak, and that the inflation measure should reflect the costs tied to buying hamburger versus steak, instead of steak versus steak. Of course, replacing hamburger for steak in the calculations would reduce the inflation rate, but it represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a declining standard of living. Cost of living was being replaced by the cost of survival. The old system told you how much you had to increase your income in order to keep buying steak. The new system promised you hamburger, and then dog food, perhaps, after that.

It's worth reading, and exploring the whole site.

shadowstats

more shadowstats

Edit: Thanks to casual observer for the link. I couldn't remember how I got there, and casual had posted the link on the previous thread to this one.

D-ohpe (baby-brain).

frothing at the fingertips

What's he so happy about? Did he get a free kite? Or is he the nephew of the Chairman?

Thanks to the pope for the cool picture! Read his rant.

Thanks to black'n'brownedout for this link.

Inflated by the Olympic spirit

THE transformation of China's capital over the past few years has been astonishing. This year the effect will be giddying...Amid an Olympics-fuelled frenzy, Beijing's economy is booming and its house prices soaring. Many fear their return to earth will be bumpy.

Ah. What me worry? You can't lose. And I'm so giddy, I can't think straight anyhow.

Olympic cities usually experience an economic surge before the games. And with under 18 months to go before the games open in Beijing, China's economy as a whole is growing nearly as fast as Beijing's: 10.7% last year compared with the capital's 12% (its eighth consecutive year in double digits). Central-government leaders worry that the pace could be reckless, but are loth (sic) to apply the brakes hard.

I'm too indolent to look up the stats for how much our economy has grown, but it seems to me that I heard that it was in the neighbourhood of 3%. That's crazy growth in Beijing!

Communist Party ... leaders will be trying to stress how much in sympathy they are with the suffering of ordinary citizens.

Oh, so solly full you! Throw the dogs a bone.

For the past two years, the central government has introduced a series of measures aimed at cooling property markets in Beijing and elsewhere. These have included new taxes on property deals and higher mortgage downpayments. Last month new restrictions were imposed on property purchases by foreigners. In Shanghai, these moves have achieved some success (diverting speculative money to the bubbling stockmarket), but not in Beijing. Last year property development still accounted for more than half of all investment in the capital.

So where will the money go now? Off-shore. Vancouver sounds good. Golden Mountain. We buy it all. It's a global frenzy of liquidity. The only bright light that I can see is that the sub-prime market is melting down, and will take a lot more down with it. It's sad that the idea of a depression can seem like a bright light isn't it?

Speculators are betting that property prices will benefit from the tightness of land supply

Oh fulak! The land shortage thing. It had to be there with the friggin' Olympics thing, didn't It? Can I even type Olympics without being sued for copy-right infringement?

Moreover, in order to keep the city clear of unsightly cranes and dust-billowing building sites during the games, Beijing has been discouraging new construction projects. This has reduced the expected supply of properties and helped to drive up prices. Last year the total floor space of new housing projects was nearly 6% less than in 2005. For poorer residents the outlook was particularly grim. The floor area of newly launched low-cost housing projects was down by nearly 57%.

I think that loathesome regime is doing better than our own loathesome regime regarding housing the poor. Slavery never really went away, but now people are proud to be mortgage slaves.

According to press reports this week, the central government recently called a special meeting to discuss ways to tame Beijing's property market. Among its suggestions was an increase in the housing supply.

Is it just me?, or does that not make sense? Just above, they were moaning about the shortage of land, but now they want to build even more. Look what happened here. Thousands of new condo's, houses and townhouses, and the market just keeps on exceeding itself.

Officials estimate that the Olympics have been contributing more than two percentage points to Beijing's annual growth since 2003. After the games, they insist, the city's new infrastructure and additional glamour (including the egg-shaped theatre, which hopes to attract international stars) will help keep the economy rolling. The flow of investment will be sustained, they say, by further infrastructure development, and by the pent-up demand for property, which will be supported by a continuing large influx of migrants from the countryside.

La la la. Guns and roses and sweet dreams in a shovel. Pent up demand, and glamourous peasants flocking to Beijing on their ways to Aurean Mountain to partake in our Aquarian Sporting Event, in the town between Pemberton and Squamish, in the year between 2009 and 2011. (That is as clear as I can be, because it seems that the season between fall and spring has been copy-righted - along with quite a few other words and place names - including that word for the distraction involving boards, cards and chance, hockey, basketball, head, etc.. The one that starts with a G, and has an A, an M, an E, and an S.)

But some observers are worried. ...two Beijing academics...said the end of the Olympics would coincide with a cyclical downturn in China's economy, exacerbating the risk of a post-Olympics slump in the capital. Beijing's Olympics-related spending of around $35 billion, they calculated, would make up more than 43% of the total for all the games since 1976. This could make the post-Olympics investment downturn all the more pronounced—especially if the speculators are busy bailing out.

No worries here though, that kinda shite does not happen here. And, there aren't that many speculators...

So, I think that we are competing with the City of Beijing for the place that everyone wants to be. And we don't have no stinking French-designed, egg-shaped theatre to attract international stars. We couldn't even give the Ford Theatre enough business to keep it going. Beijing is building a mag-lev train system for it's festival, and the network is planned country-wide. We get the RAV, lose BC Rail, and watch almost weekly derailments. Third World Class.

Excuse my cynical rant. I'm tired. I will have another rant for you in the coming days.

dissecting bias

Anatomia del corpo humano...
Rome, 1559. Copperplate engraving. National Library of Medicine.
Juan Valverde de Amusco
(ca. 1525 - ca. 1588)[anatomist]

A flayed cadaver holds his skin in one hand and a dissecting knife in the other. The skin’s distorted face has the appearance of a ghost or a cloud, suggesting that spirit has been separated from, or peeled off of, the fleshy inner man.
from here

There is something about the description above that reminds me both of the spiritless liturgy the passes for reporting, and of how people that fell for the hype and spin will feel when they start to realize negative equity, and their own credulousness. And just wait until they are hit by recession (part of the larger economic cycle).

Below I react to an article in The Sun -

The upside of British Columbia's real-estate-market cycle has been steep, but the downside will not be as rapid as in the U.S., according to the real estate firm Century 21 Canada.

This is garble. They mention cycles, but don't seem to have seen VHB's graph, or any other of the like. They do not seem to be paying attention to their own numbers either, though I suppose that they just added some adjectives to the press release from the dispassionate Huge RE firm. It's reassuring to hear that our "downside" will not be as rapid as that to the south. I must have missed the news about the US market hitting bottom, and beginning to rise to new, record levels.

House prices in select B.C. markets have been flat or risen up to 12 per cent in the last year. That follows a much steeper rise of between 89 per cent and 114 per cent over the last five years, Century 21 reported Wednesday in its annual survey of house prices.

Select BC markets hmm? Have "been flat or risen" (sic) - which is it ferfuxaches? I ought to have used the spin .gif for this post. It "follows a much steeper rise...the last five years", but if prices are flat, there is no more appreciation occuring, and if they are up 12%, that is still a considerable - if flagging - appreciation.

However, while the median U.S. house price dropped 11.5 per cent compared with a year ago, Century 21 Canada president Don Lawby said B.C.'s economy is strong enough and its real estate sector different enough to isolate the province from a similar decline.

Lawby, in an interview, said that while real estate sales have dropped, B.C.'s economy has grown more than the U.S. economy, and is spread across a more diverse base than has been the case in the past.

It doesn't much matter which way you cut with this knife, it still means the market is slowing markedly. And it's only beginning. China has been loading up on copper and other metals, so mining will likely slow. Lumber market already hurting in Ontario and Quebec - and likely in BC too, they just don't report on that. But don't you worry, everything will be ok. Just take this little pill. You did know that things are different here...right?

Just what is this greater economic diversity that we enjoy, that we had not before? Condo construction? The RAV Line? Highway construction? Five years of construction projects has added a great diversity? And since when has the BC economy been equatable with the US economy? Can we compare economies, but not market cycles?

Thanks to Derrick Penner and RET for the article, and the WTF? fuel for this post.