the grab bag # 6, and, Armageddon approaches

El ... es el monoculo de Jehova

Wow! I can't believe what a baby does to your brain, heart, back, life. Busy. Busy. Busy. Busy. Busy.

There is not so much going on that is of note anyway. Inventory seems to be climbing. Prices are weird (though, there are now 8 SFH properties for $400 K, or less in East Van., where there were but two a couple of months ago).

The rain is gone for now, birds are singing, and I don't really care anymore where this madness goes. How about this?

Man shoots at condo for blocking out sunlight

Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:10AM EDT
TOKYO (Reuters) - A Japanese man angry that a new apartment building put his house in the shade was arrested after shooting about a dozen bullets at it with a competition rifle.

Police said the man apparently fired at the 11-storey building, which was completed last October, from a window on the third floor of his house, a distance of roughly 164 feet.

"He felt the building management didn't take a sincere attitude toward his complaints that the building was keeping sunlight from reaching his house," a police spokesman in the western city of Kyoto said.

Nobody was injured in the shootings but walls, railings and two lights on the apartment building were damaged.

When the Japanese lose their cool, you know there is a problem - either with their heads, or their environment. Maybe both... Condo rage! And they pay you to borrow money there. Pretty much, anyway.

I can't help but wonder when construction rage begins here. I know that I despise my new neighbour, and his house isn't even finished yet. I won't get into it now, but it has been going on for 5 months, and I'm sick of flat tires, garbage in my yard, and up and down the street, destroyed trees, fences, and on and on. Not to mention the darkness on one side of my house where the light is blocked by his monstrosity.

On a more humourous note, the Jehovah's Witnesses have been out in force - with 5 over the weekend. I was lucky enough to be hurrying out with the baby and mother during one onslaught of 4 in two pairs, but the fifth caught me cold with a coffee in hand. I'm a pretty gregarious guy, but I was on my way to work, so I pretended not to speak English, and responded in Spanish that I was "muy occupado ahorra". Just my luck, she was fluent in Spanish, Portuguese, French and English, so there was no escape.

She had a funky hat though, and a pleasant demeanour, so we entertained each other in 4 different languages. I think she was a rich immigrant, but cagey. I asked her about the bubble, and she told me of Jehovah. I told her I loved her, and she smiled.

So that's it. The bubble may not burst, but the greedy will sink beneath the earth, and I will be in Paradise (because of my love, and all). The Devil is behind the bubble. I was told so in four languages.

She spoke in tongues...

I will be back when I can, pero estoy muy occupado ahorra. Hasta luego.

riot vancouver 2010 - responding to the schmolympdicks

I received this unsolicited e-mail yesterday. It is a press release from Vancouver's Only magazine (formerly Terminal City). I did not object too much to the "spam" - some spam is ok, and I liked the subversive tone of this one. They are offering up a free "Riot 2010" countdown widget as antithesis to the Schlonglimpdicks' countdown crock o' shite.

With regrets from them (elitist schmoes) the widget only works on Mac.

Feel free to spam Chuck Ansbacher though, he did include his e-mail address. Be nice - it is a fairly cool on-line mag. And, they are pissed off with the Schmo-limpdicks too. I am hearing more and more disgust about that every day. I'm gonna finally pop, and write a manifesto on that some day.

The Only Magazine Riot Vancouver 2010 Widget

Riots are nothing new to the Rainy City. Take, for example, the Victory Square "work camp" riot of 1935, the Gastown pot riots of the '60s, the Guns 'n Roses riot of 2002, and, of course, the Stanley Cup riots of '94. On July 2, 2003, Vancouver won the bid to host the 2010 Olympic Winter Games. An honour indeed, the city responded with celebration, but also with groans. Anyone honest with themselves admitted there were problems to overcome, but it was thought that these were just the growing pains of a developing city on the verge of becoming "world class." But Vancouver, a city with the most poverty stricken postal code in North America, could only celebrate for so long. It turns out five rings aren't enough to hold this glass city together. The cost of the Games are vastly over budget and diverting money from social programs. There is a constant worry the mountains won't see the kind of snowfall necessary for an Olympic host. Homelessness has increased and is projected to continue. Some citizens want answers. None have been given. Despite continued protests and lucid studies outlining how the Games are damaging the city, the Vancouver Olympics Committee decided to celebrate some more recently. They built a nice digital clock to countdown the remaining three years until the Opening Ceremonies. You may have noticed this monolithic eyesore, seemingly dropped from the sky onto the lawn of the Vancouver Art Gallery, missing only a crowd of curious apes and a lobbed bone to complete the scene. There it sits, ticking away in its clean, tasteful glass case under the watchful eye of a hired security guard. Ticking along as the city surrounding it succumbs to the pressures of transition. Building construction rumbles from nearly every corner, marginalised citizens are turned out onto the streets in lucrative grabs for real estate, and money is being exchanged at a drunken pace. Under these circumstances, the countdown and the clock have many symbolic meanings, and Only Magazine sees a situation ripe for public opinion to boil over the edges of decency. Of course, we would never incite or even encourage anyone to riot. If you hadn't thought of it before now you're probably not going to be one of the people there. However, history has taught us that if (when) there is a civil disobedience, it won't be the issues that are blamed, and it won't be all the poor decisions made leading up to the Opening Ceremonies either. So if the police need a scapegoat, Only Magazine volunteers for the job. We love attention. In the spirit of being subversive without actually having to leave your computer, Only Magazine gives you a Widget so you can smash the state and read the Google at the same time. Dissent from your laptop. The Only Magazine Riot Vancouver 2010 Widget.*

Signed,
Only Magazine

*Seriously, Only Magazine does not endorse rioting.

- Official Press Release -
-- Chuck Ansbacher
Managing Editor
Only Magazine
#611 142 - 757 West Hastings
Vancouver, BC
V6C 1A1
onlymagazine.ca

no more heroes

off topic/on topic, vhb, cap'n america and dyspepsia

Captain America assassinated by sniper after 66 years of comic history

NEW YORK (AP) - Holy home-icide, Batman!

Captain America is dead! Assassinated, in fact, as he walks into a federal courthouse in New York, under arrest and in handcuffs, headed to his arraignment for refusing to sign the government's Superhero Registration Act and forcibly revealing his true identity.

It's eerie! Is there a connection to the Legend of VHB?

A sniper, firing a high-powered rifle from a rooftop, hits the famed red, white and blue leader of the Real Estate Avengers with three bullets and escapes the scene, leaving the weapon behind Oswald-style, as bears and Captain VHB's military escort cope with chaos in the streets.

What does this mean? Can the pulverizing patriot really be dead, shot down on the courthouse steps after years of battling villains from Scameron S'more to the Red Velvet? Will the killer or killers be captured?

The only way to find out, says Dan Buckley, president and publisher of Marvel Entertainment, is to "read the book" as the story line unfolds.

Jeez-us. It is rumoured that VHB has left the city (I can't blame him for that), and Cap'n America has been assassinated.

I just can't take it any more.

I got into blogging on RE a bit late (the story of my life), and really enjoyed myself doing it. I am not giving up just yet, but changes in my life have certainly curtailed my posting.

Over all, I am quite jaded, disgusted, and just a little bemused. My wife and I have been muttering about going away after 19 years of living here, but as my daffodils bloom, the trees begin to leaf, the robins hop around for my amusement, and the news of the weather in the rest of the country is FRIGID, I wonder where we'll go. Brazil? Portugal? France? Victoria? I dunno... All I know is that I am a bit long in the tooth to sign up for a 100 year mortgage, and have too much sense to do so anyhow. I've got an accomodating downpayment ready to go, but I might as well have nothing - prices here being what they are.

I'm disgusted by the Olympic crap, the Olympic toilet ring, the Olympic ring-around-the-collar, Flash, the traffic, the transit, the municipal guvmint, the provincial guvmint, the hubris and stupidity, the federal guvmint, mossy cars, Cuban exiles, avian flu and beeswax. I oughtn't be feeling so, but I am. The assassination of Cap'n Amurikkka just tears it for me though.

I will continue to post here, but it will be at a much slower pace. Once or twice a week... I may get more excited if things change soon.

the pope seems to be weary of this sordid spectacle too.

The laughs here have become hollow, forced, and much more rare. I'm not so sure I want to live in such a wanton place as Vancouver anymore.

My apologies to the original author for the hack job.

EDIT: the pope does not plan on packing in his blog any time soon. I regret the mis-representation.

frothing at the fingertips

What's he so happy about? Did he get a free kite? Or is he the nephew of the Chairman?

Thanks to the pope for the cool picture! Read his rant.

Thanks to black'n'brownedout for this link.

Inflated by the Olympic spirit

THE transformation of China's capital over the past few years has been astonishing. This year the effect will be giddying...Amid an Olympics-fuelled frenzy, Beijing's economy is booming and its house prices soaring. Many fear their return to earth will be bumpy.

Ah. What me worry? You can't lose. And I'm so giddy, I can't think straight anyhow.

Olympic cities usually experience an economic surge before the games. And with under 18 months to go before the games open in Beijing, China's economy as a whole is growing nearly as fast as Beijing's: 10.7% last year compared with the capital's 12% (its eighth consecutive year in double digits). Central-government leaders worry that the pace could be reckless, but are loth (sic) to apply the brakes hard.

I'm too indolent to look up the stats for how much our economy has grown, but it seems to me that I heard that it was in the neighbourhood of 3%. That's crazy growth in Beijing!

Communist Party ... leaders will be trying to stress how much in sympathy they are with the suffering of ordinary citizens.

Oh, so solly full you! Throw the dogs a bone.

For the past two years, the central government has introduced a series of measures aimed at cooling property markets in Beijing and elsewhere. These have included new taxes on property deals and higher mortgage downpayments. Last month new restrictions were imposed on property purchases by foreigners. In Shanghai, these moves have achieved some success (diverting speculative money to the bubbling stockmarket), but not in Beijing. Last year property development still accounted for more than half of all investment in the capital.

So where will the money go now? Off-shore. Vancouver sounds good. Golden Mountain. We buy it all. It's a global frenzy of liquidity. The only bright light that I can see is that the sub-prime market is melting down, and will take a lot more down with it. It's sad that the idea of a depression can seem like a bright light isn't it?

Speculators are betting that property prices will benefit from the tightness of land supply

Oh fulak! The land shortage thing. It had to be there with the friggin' Olympics thing, didn't It? Can I even type Olympics without being sued for copy-right infringement?

Moreover, in order to keep the city clear of unsightly cranes and dust-billowing building sites during the games, Beijing has been discouraging new construction projects. This has reduced the expected supply of properties and helped to drive up prices. Last year the total floor space of new housing projects was nearly 6% less than in 2005. For poorer residents the outlook was particularly grim. The floor area of newly launched low-cost housing projects was down by nearly 57%.

I think that loathesome regime is doing better than our own loathesome regime regarding housing the poor. Slavery never really went away, but now people are proud to be mortgage slaves.

According to press reports this week, the central government recently called a special meeting to discuss ways to tame Beijing's property market. Among its suggestions was an increase in the housing supply.

Is it just me?, or does that not make sense? Just above, they were moaning about the shortage of land, but now they want to build even more. Look what happened here. Thousands of new condo's, houses and townhouses, and the market just keeps on exceeding itself.

Officials estimate that the Olympics have been contributing more than two percentage points to Beijing's annual growth since 2003. After the games, they insist, the city's new infrastructure and additional glamour (including the egg-shaped theatre, which hopes to attract international stars) will help keep the economy rolling. The flow of investment will be sustained, they say, by further infrastructure development, and by the pent-up demand for property, which will be supported by a continuing large influx of migrants from the countryside.

La la la. Guns and roses and sweet dreams in a shovel. Pent up demand, and glamourous peasants flocking to Beijing on their ways to Aurean Mountain to partake in our Aquarian Sporting Event, in the town between Pemberton and Squamish, in the year between 2009 and 2011. (That is as clear as I can be, because it seems that the season between fall and spring has been copy-righted - along with quite a few other words and place names - including that word for the distraction involving boards, cards and chance, hockey, basketball, head, etc.. The one that starts with a G, and has an A, an M, an E, and an S.)

But some observers are worried. ...two Beijing academics...said the end of the Olympics would coincide with a cyclical downturn in China's economy, exacerbating the risk of a post-Olympics slump in the capital. Beijing's Olympics-related spending of around $35 billion, they calculated, would make up more than 43% of the total for all the games since 1976. This could make the post-Olympics investment downturn all the more pronounced—especially if the speculators are busy bailing out.

No worries here though, that kinda shite does not happen here. And, there aren't that many speculators...

So, I think that we are competing with the City of Beijing for the place that everyone wants to be. And we don't have no stinking French-designed, egg-shaped theatre to attract international stars. We couldn't even give the Ford Theatre enough business to keep it going. Beijing is building a mag-lev train system for it's festival, and the network is planned country-wide. We get the RAV, lose BC Rail, and watch almost weekly derailments. Third World Class.

Excuse my cynical rant. I'm tired. I will have another rant for you in the coming days.

mortgage defaults

bcbuds sent me this link (thanks buds).

New Data Show That Nontraditional Loans Are BeginningTo Haunt Borrowers With Midlevel Credit; Prime Still Fine

The mortgage market has been roiled by a sharp increase in bad loans made to borrowers with weak credit. Now there are signs that the pain is spreading upward.

Borrowers who take out Alt-A mortgages are considered less risky than subprime borrowers because of their higher credit scores. But as the housing market cooled and loan volume declined, some lenders lowered their standards for Alt-As. Now a rising number of borrowers who took out these loans are running into trouble.

We will be hearing the same here soon enough, me thinks.

The company cut back on riskier loans and began relying more on analytical tools to verify a borrower's income and creditworthiness.

What a great idea. Let's use some analysis and verification.

As in the subprime sector, the riskiest loans are those made to home buyers who put little, if any, money down and don't document their income or assets.

CMHC thinks it's a great idea to back 0% down loans - with our tax dollars. Will heads roll when it goes sideways? Scameron jumped ship. Did he see his head rolling?

The mortgage industry is battling a rash of cases in which borrowers, loan officers and appraisers collude in providing false information to induce lenders to advance more money than homes are worth.

That sounds very similar to what has been going on here. I think that the term was "liar loans".

I think we are heading for a real mess - and fast. Your thoughts?

the grab bag #5

Just a quick post re: the market action of today;... link

"You're just seeing people cashing out. The biggest group in the index is financials - it's the second hardest hit; they're like taking whatever they can and selling it,"

Is it concern about the credit bubble?

But analysts pointed out that the Shanghai market had been vastly overvalued.

Oh, kinda like the Van. RE market.

It is actually encouraging in a way that China's having its bubble deflated now," said Gavin Graham, director of investments with Guardian Group of Funds.

But how about deflation of the RE market here?

"What they don't want, with the Olympics in 16 months, is uncertainty and unhappiness anytime during 2008."

Oh, jeezuss. The Olympics thing there too.

In other U.S. data, sales of existing homes rose in January by three per cent, but home prices declined for a sixth straight month.

The ship is going down there, and it soon will here. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. On a side note, none of my holdings lost a cent. I guess I am truly a contrarian investor. Ha! Ha! Told ya so. (Grin)

"I think what people are concerned about is that you might see it continue because it has been so overdone."

But no concerns yet about the Vancouver RE market. It's pretty overdone, and the Olympics thing is sooo tired now. China may not want so many commodities now - the only other thing purportedly holding up our economy in BC.

It's coming...

I'm just sneaking this in while mother and child are snoozing, so please excuse my brevity.

I think that this could be the beginning of a global recession, or worse. What do you think?

the soapbox (again) with a different look

I'm very busy right now. Labour has been going on for 30 hours. Just sent home from the hospital because babby is not ready yet. Time to try to get some sleep, and back to the hospital in the AM.

It will be a few days or more until I can give any attention here, so have your say in my absence. Just keep it civil please.

Possible topics of discussion:

The Budget.

Um, real estate in Vancouver.

Too tired to think, so over to you...

flogging a dead horse

So, how many ways to say the same thing, and how many times to say it? I wonder if this has anything to do with the recent departures of VHB and uncertain buyer from the blog roll. It can be difficult to come up with new material, and to keep it engaging.

There has been a surreality to RE world-wide in the last few years, and especially in Vancouver. I began by squawking about the state of things on RET a couple of years ago, when that forum was a virtual bullring. I wasn't much of a matador - more a picador - at the time, and freako was one of the only others there saying that things were goofy. Then VHB posted a link to his blog, and I began to have more impudent confidence in my own view. At first, VHB had no comments, and not so many visitors, but that began to snowball. VHB came up with the historical graphs, analysis, etc., and I spent less time at RET. I was tired of the same tired bull thing. Maybe that is part of Why Vance bowed out - he got tired of it too. I have had an easier time of it because I'm just making fun of things, but even that gets tired. I can't see myself turning to gloating or such when/if things do go my way, but I will be commenting on it. I wonder what else will come along to defeat it, or bolster it (the market).

The new provincial budget (released today) had quite a bit in it to bolster the market. The exemption for Property Transfer Tax was raised to $375K, the homeownwers' grant ceiling was raised to $975K, and income tax was cut by another 10% (on top of the 25% cut of the first Liberal budget). The Minister o' All Things Monetary also said that BC had 40K new immigrants/migrants last year (no mention of how many left. ie. net migration), and what a "magnificent province" this is. She actually remarked on the housing affordability situation. A surplus in the neighbourhood of 2.2B was also projected. It's a developers'/private health care providers' budget from what I heard. Those are just the highlights that I heard and retained to memory. I'll look into all that further if mohican doesn't take care of it first.

There was also a discussion on CBC's Almanac about the housing situation featuring Tsur Somerville. I was not able to catch much of that unfortunately. You can listen to it here, but you need to have RealMediaPlayer on your machine (I don't - it is spyware IMHO).

If any of you spot any road-kill, let me know. I need something else to flog besides old, dead horses. Good News Bears kinda stuff is my hope. (grin)

wh'appen?

Wow. I'm off-line for a few days, and the whole world changes.

VHB packs it in, and stuns thousands.

I was surprised - much as you all were. I guess I'm not really that surprised - keeping up the research, collating it, posting it, and responding to all of the commentary must have been a Herculean effort for our friend Vance. I know that my own wife just barely puts up with the time that I spend ensconced in my den of iniquity tapping out inanities to the blogosphere.

There is a lot of speculation as to why VHB hung up his keyboard, but I would venture to say that it was a daunting task for him to scribe pointedly every day. My own personal life is impinging on my ability to post just lately (my wife would say that the blogging impinges on my personal life...), and the next week or two holds bigger challenges to doing so, but I will attempt to keep up.

I have always seen this blog as an amusement - rather than a serious look at the market, and I don't see that changing. Numbers and graphs bore me, but VHB's graphs and analysis did not. Nothing has changed, other than VHB is not part of our daily routine of reading anymore. Best of luck to him.

mohican does good graphs, the pope has a pretty good grasp of things, and is funny to boot, and Rob Chipman has the current numbers for inventory and sales.

Many of us have been wrong about timing, but I still believe that things will change (they already are). These are the craziest times I have seen (in so many ways), and I am beginning to wonder if it is me that is crazy. Nope, it's not me. The Vancouver weather in winter cannot be beat in Canada, but that does not justify the prices here. I saw on the news last week, an item on housing in Windsor, Ont. that made me stop and think - a fairly new, big, very nice house for sale for 249K. I have been waiting for a reversal of fortune here, but am really starting to wonder if I will see that in a meaningful way.

Posting here will be sporadic in the coming days, but I will do my best to keep it up.

Thanks for swinging by.

what they did not tell you

After my photoshop fun of yesterday, I am staying on the topic of The "W" - because, well, marketing pisses me off. I am countering that with a little anti-marketing.

Today I had occassion to be driving along East Hastings, when I was re-directed by the po-lice due to a large crowd blocking the street at Main and Hastings (just after I passed a group of about 8 desperados openly shooting something into their veins in front of a boarded-up store). The crowd was holding an annual vigil for the 60-odd women missing from the area. We know what happened to quite a few of them.

The "W" sits at 100 West Hastings - a scant 3 blocks from the Carnegie Community Centre, a scant block from Victory Square, and a meagre two blocks from the colourfully named Blood Alley (just at the end of Trounce Alley).

I wonder if they mentioned the community centre, local parks (Oppenheimer Park is nice on a summer evening), the library at Carnegie, and the cheap eats available there, in the promotional literature for The "W". Intellectuals who will be inhabiting those expensive intellectual properties for the bold were surely mindful of those near-by amenities when considering their purchases.

I found an interesting article relating a reporter's visit to the Carnegie Community Centre in The Republic of East Vancouver. It is an interesting introduction to some of the colourful characters buyers at The "W" will know as neighbours.

How much did those places sell for again?

A visit to the Carnegie Community Centre makes you think about what we mean when we say “community.” It’s Friday, January 19th and I’m coming up the steps of Carnegie with 2005 mayoral candidate Peter Haskell. The crowd of people outside the 104-year-old building tries to sell us everything from syringes to Tylenol-Threes. Haskell is one of many who are forbidden to use the facilities at Carnegie, but as we enter, nobody seems to notice him. As soon as we enter, staff throws somebody out for being intoxicated.

He yells “Get your hands off me!” as he struggles to keep from losing his morsels of food.

I meet another man who has been kicked off the property. Ricky, a big first-nations man, speaks with a somber tone and chooses his words very carefully. “They kicked me out of Carnegie,” he says, “They say it was because I smelled.” “I’m a warrior,” says Ricky, “and I’m not going to let them tear down my community.”

The demographics...are overwhelmingly Southeast Asian; at least fifty percent. It’s at least 30% visible first-nations, and 15% Hispanic. (rich foreigners?)

There is a small branch of the Vancouver Public Library in the building and it is perpetually busy. All the washrooms have those white lights that are supposed to make it hard for intravenous drug users to be able to see a vein to shoot up, but there are needle drop box receptacles on the walls. The washrooms are scary enough, but the lights give them an extra spooky appearance. (Great for the kiddies at Hallowe'en)

It brings me back to the point about what we mean when we say “community.”

Carnegie has recently had a lot of changes...such actions such as groups of seniors picketing Tourism Information Offices and saying “welcome to Vancouver” and handing tourists information about the gentrification that’s been going on here. But critics of the Carnegie are quick to point out that Carnegie management make upwards of $50 000 per year, while volunteers work hours for enough meal tickets to be able to buy something to eat in the cafeteria. link

The homeless you have with you always . . .

Some of the locals -

Abigail is one of the homeless denizens of Vancouver's
notorious Downtown Eastside neighbourhood. Photo courtesy of Union Gospel
Mission.

A drug deal in Vancouver's downtown eastside: home to the highest
population of intravenous drug users in Canada, and one of the "worst HIV
epidemics in the developed world." photo: City of Vancouver

WTF? a new sign for The "W"

What ever happened to Blab Runny? You know, the guy who sold us The "W".

The reason that I am wondering - I had a great idea for a new sign for the project. A sign that exemplifies both the "W", and the real estate market in Vancouver. The Running Man seems to have disappeared with all of his booty, and is not returning my calls.

I photoshopped an artist's concept above. The new sign will read "WTF?". I think it's cool - much cooler than when Citroen was advertising on the Eiffel Tower.

What do you think?

price compression

freako has spoken of price compression coming before the crumble, and I offer below, evidence of that in spades.

I looked at houses in Van. East, and Van. West in roughly the same price range. It's pretty ridiculous as far as I'm concerned.

$825,000.00
1021 ODLUM DR., East Vancouver

A newly renovated home in an easy going neighbourhood with quick
access downtown .The exterior features new vinyl siding and double glazed
windows. Main floor ha s living room with electric fireplace and bay window. The
kitchen is updatedwith new Maple cabinets, tile floor, countertops and new SS
appl. Main offers two full baths completely updated with soaker tubs. Wood
laminate floors thru-out, new drywall,new baseboards and crown mouldings.some
updated elec and plumb. Four bdrms p lus recrm or playroom up with 2pce bath.
Bsmt is all set for the in-laws, sep entry 4bdrms plus 1.5 baths (soaker tub),
laminate wood flooring and new SS appliances. Shared laundry. Fenced yard,
parking off lane. Close to schools. City skyline views

MLS®: V623596
Finished Floor Area: 2570.0 sqft.
Property Type: House
Lot Frontage: 33.0 ft.
Lot Depth: 95 ft.
Basement: Full
Bedrooms: 8 Age: 76
Bathrooms:
(Full:3, Half:2)

They call this a two story with basement. I call bullshite. Newly renovated is good (if you don't mind paying extra for someone else's tastes), but there are not granite countertops. The lot is pretty small too. And what the heck would the "in-laws" do with four bedrooms? Have a couple more kids?

Good luck with that.

$809,000.00
3306 PARKER ST., East Vancouver

Corner brand new 2.5 levels 2212 sqft custom built home with
unobstructed N moun tain view. 6 bdrm & rec room in basement. Downstairs
could be separate suites. H /W stairs, granite F/P, entrance hallway &
counter tops in kitchen & bathrooms. Stainless steel kitchen appliances.
2-5-10 new home warranty.

MLS®: V608622 Finished Floor Area: 2212.0
sqft.
Property Type: House
Lot Frontage: 33.0 ft.
Lot Depth: 112 ft.
Basement: Crawl
Bedrooms: 6 Age: 00
Bathrooms: (Full:5,
Half:0)

Just a short distance away, this custom-built home is offered for 16K less than the oddball on Odlum (above). It has one less bedroom, but has 5 full bathrooms. It also has a new home warranty. Unfortunately, it was custom-built to someone else's tastes. It does not have a basement either, but they call it 2 1/2 story because it has a crawlspace. I call that false advertising.

Bon Chance avec ce maison aussi.


$848,000.00
1012 W 57TH AV., Vancouver West

Lot value only! 57th and Oak. 10,106 square feet lot in a
park-like setting. House has no power! Sold as is where is.

MLS®:
V622677 Finished Floor Area: 2640.0 sqft.
Property Type: House
Lot
Frontage: 65.0 ft.
Lot Depth: 153 EFF
Basement: Part
Bedrooms: 3
Age: 56

Look at this! A ten thousand square foot lot for just 20K more than that shack on Odlum... In Van. West, no less. There is no power, so it was probably a grow-op, but 50K ought to take care of the re-fit to make it habitable. This place looks like a "good deal".



$838,000.00
7899 MONTCALM ST., Marpole Spent over $100,000 - extensively renovated brand new roof, vinyl windows, new k itchens and bathrooms all with granite counters. Upgraded electrical and plumbin g. Master bedroom with ensuite, 3 bedrooms Up, new 4-bedroom basement suite. Close to school and shopping.

MLS®: V629861 Finished Floor Area: 2250.0 sqft.
Property Type: House
Lot Frontage: 33.0 ft.
Lot Depth: 122 ft.
Basement: Fully Finished
Bedrooms: 7 Age: 49

Big deal. You spent 100K putting in granite counter tops, and you still have less than half the lot as that above. It's got revenue potential though, and it is in Van. West for "only" 13K more than the dump on Odlum. You can explain that by the slighty larger lot size though. And in case you didn't know, Everyone in the world wants to live in Vancouver, and everybody in Vancouver wants to live near The Drive. People will pay a lot for that "Bohemian" lifestyle. Who wants to live on the stodgy west side?


$834,000.00
7622 FRENCH ST,Marpole

AMAZING VALUE on Vancouver Westside! Located in Churchill High
School district, this cute bungalow features recent renovation throughout &
a 2 bdrm mortgage hel per. Huge potential for 1st-time-buyers, investors &
builders-big 6,900 sf lot. Definitely not to be missed! *Ask re: plans for 4,000
sf new home!* First showing, Agents Open Thurs Feb 15, 10-12 pm.

MLS®:
V630005 Finished Floor Area: 1906.0 sqft.
Property Type: House
Lot
Frontage: 82.0 ft.
Lot Depth: 117 ft.
Basement: Full
Bedrooms: 4
Age: 65
Bathrooms: (Full:2, Half:0)

I don't know, this looks to be a better deal than the one above. It's a more attractive house on a lot that is twice the size.

So what the heck is going on here? The city is unhinged from "fundamentals" when compared to other places, and there is a further unhinging between the West and East sides.

By the way, you can still buy hovels west of Main for less than 600K.

99 rooms

A friend sent me this link, and it is a pretty cool diversion over a glass of wine (and a bong if you are so inclined). I checked out about 20 shots, but don't have much time right now.

It's worth looking at - there is great art/photography, some trippy sound effects, and it is not completely off-topic (hey - it's 99 Rooms). It is a Flash presentation, so unfortunately, you will need that. I dragged out an old version, and removed it again after viewing.

Enjoy.

the soap box (again #3)

Here is the soap box again. Speak your mind.

I spoke to my realtor neighbour-in-building today, and asked him how things are out in Surrey. He reported that inventory is climbing, sales are falteringly flat, and prices are down about 7%. He then went on to say that he didn't think prices will fall. A cagey, mixed message. His trades come for a day every week or so, but beyond that, the building is going up as slowly as the snails featured yesterday.

What do any of you think? See?

top down

Is this the top, or not? It looks like a long way down, and things are moving excruciatingly slowly.

I have patience though. I waited for about a half-hour to catch this shot. It seems to exemplify all this waiting for something, anything, to happen.

an explanation

CPimages ‘04/J.P. Moczulski


I came across an article about mad cow disease, and re-wrote it to explain why so many people have been sucked into this "bull market". It's the food (a lack of selenium?). Enjoy.

Agency confirms BSE (blatantly stupid extension of credit) in mature Alberta bull


EDMONTON - Canada has confirmed its ninth case of BSE since 2003, in an Alberta bull. The Agency said Wednesday a mature bull died on a farm last week. A senior market analyst for Western Canada said the animal's death caused it to be identified as an "animal of interest" as part of a national Real Estate surveillance program.

Provincial and federal tests then failed to confirm the BSE.

"Where the animal is found at the time of its death is not as important as where it lived in its first year of life - with consumption of contaminated feed in its first year of life suspected to be the cause of all the foolishness." How many toys it had when it died is unknown.

An investigation is underway to find other animals born within a year of the bull that may also speculate in the Vancouver market. It is suspected that the bulls were born into the cohort commonly known as "baby boomers".

Officials are certain this particular bull had been very foolhardy, and had been heard to sneer at the bears..

Preliminary findings suggest the bull was born and raised in Alberta.

Eight previous cases of BSE have been detected in Canadian bulls in the past, when the discovery of an Alberta bull with the disease caused the United States to slam the border shut entirely. It is believed that the US has it's own share of bankruptcies and foreclosures to deal with.

Five new cases were discovered in Canada in 2006, including one in a bull born five years after safeguards were adopted to prevent the spread of the disease.

"The small number of cases of over-extension are, I suppose, unwelcome but on the other hand, not entirely unexpected," the official said, adding other countries have seen a small number of "residual" cases after adopting strict credit regulations.

New rules proposed by CHMC that would allow 0% purchases amortized over 40 years to resume are up for public review until everyone is broke.

Almost one-third of the Canadian bull herd and one-quarter of the total herd is estimated to have been born before 1961.

The official said he doesn't expect the latest case to have a negative impact on the "Olympic" plans.

"What's most important is that there's safeguards, there's a stringent suite of measures in place to prevent and eradicate speculation," he said.

"We are open and transparent with home buyers . . . we do not expect that this will negatively impact any of the planned measures proposed." Those measures reportedly included a plan to bankrupt recent home buyers through raising interest rates 5 basis points.

calculations

So I was goofing around with this Mortgage Qualifier Calculator at the Glob of Mucous, and found some interesting realities. I took screen shots of different scenarios to demonstrate just what can be afforded.

The first shot reveals that a couple, both earning the average wage in the GVRD*, could afford to buy a house (or apt., condo, etc., but you would have to add in condo fees) worth $316,507 - with the respectable sum of $50K for a down payment, and a 25 year amortization. This is without GST (applicable to a new, or renovated property). The monthly P&I payment would be $1,660.17. That is close to 30% more than I pay for rent on a SFH with a view. Nothing is calculated for repairs, etc.

click for larger view

With 0% down, you can buy $263,906 worth of dwelling.

click for larger view

OK, so let us say that that couple will buy a new construction (add in GST, but not condo fees), still zero down, but going for a 35 year amortization. They could buy a bit more - $288,272.

click for larger view

All these calculations are at a 5.5% mortgage rate, which is what ought not to be too hard to get for a 5 year loan, for most people. Rates will go up sooner or later, so re-financing could have you looking at 7%, or more. And, is there anything worth buying in the GVRD for those prices?

I did a quick MLS search in that price range for Van. East, and came up with 95 condo properties. The cheapest was $1,000 more than the lowest number above. Interestingly, a lot of the places for sale boasted that they had never been lived in.

The same price range search in Van. West turned up 80 properties. freako - is this your price compression revealing itself?

The long and short of it is that there are 175 condos, or apartments, for sale in Vancouver proper that could be afforded by a couple making the average wage*. There must be more than 175 couples looking for a condo in this fair city. Do you hear the din of bidding wars?

Almost needless to say, there are 0 houses for sale in this town, in that price range. Something's gotta give.

What is wild to me is that the reported earnings only rose $156 per annum when comparing 1993 to 2002. In 1994 the average wage was more than $4,000 more. I don't do graphs, but maybe one of you who does could chart the average wage with the average house prices. VHB may have already done so, so look there (my quick search did not find it).

Disclaimer - Information is made available to you as a self-help tool for your independent use and are not intended to provide investment advice. I can not and do not guarantee it's applicability or accuracy in regards to your individual circumstances. All examples are hypothetical and are for illustrative purposes. I encourage you to seek personalized advice from qualified professionals regarding all personal finance issues. Go ask yer Momma.

*This number was found here. Source: Canada Revenue Agency
Prepared by : BC Stats, July 2006