I'm very busy right now. Labour has been going on for 30 hours. Just sent home from the hospital because babby is not ready yet. Time to try to get some sleep, and back to the hospital in the AM.
It will be a few days or more until I can give any attention here, so have your say in my absence. Just keep it civil please.
Possible topics of discussion:
The Budget.
Um, real estate in Vancouver.
Too tired to think, so over to you...
16 comments:
My thoughts are with you both. Ours took four days and it was still worth it (my wife claims). Hang in there and do your best to get her some sleep.
What an exciting time for you and your wife. You know, its these kids that are fueling the move-up market from condo to SFH. Although, I do sometimes wonder how many children these days will grow up in a condo/apartment style home, given our RE prices.
Oh, I also had the crazy long labours. Don't either of you get discouraged: the only way this ends is with a baby!
Is your wife VHB? Quit the blog just before she went into labour? *hee hee*.
Good luck to you and your family.
Here's an article i found in MarketWatch's "Most E-Mailed" section.
The link is at the end for the full mail:
"On the economic front, we are overdue for a recession. The last one occurred in 2000 and 2001. Business expansions don't last forever. The boom-and-bust pattern of an economic cycle has not been repealed.
An inverted yield curve almost always points to a deep business slowdown. The Fed publicly claims there's a 40% chance of a recession. However, a model of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is essentially forecasting an outright recession.
Double-digit corporate earnings growth will be a thing of the past. Companies should consider themselves fortunate to experience single-digit growth.
The housing industry remains on the verge of a massive collapse. In our estimation, this real estate debacle is only in the top half of the second inning of a nine-inning ballgame.
Sentimentally speaking, our indicators are flashing major warning signals. At extremes, sentiment can indicate a peak or an important low. This contrary indicator is presently at an extreme level. Unfortunately, it's a very bearish one."
http://tinyurl.com/32bs7l
Of course, this is NEVER impact the indestructible BC market...
Just be there for her! You caused it remember.
Sometimes it's like real estate crashes, they take longer than expected.
Another underlying factor is that Mortgage Financing is starting to tighten up. I know of two deals that fell through due to the inability to secure financing. Inventories will rise and sales will decrease and the glut of downtown condos will create a huge over-supply and prices will fall, dramatically. The % of pre-sold condos is decreasing and speculators are trying to rent or sell or bailing out and forfeiting their deposits. Once the snowball gains momentum then we'll see a dramatic rise in listing perhaps by October/November. For those looking for a steal and who sold 6 months ago at the peak, hang in there and wait , not necessarily for a massive downturn, but for the unfortunate foreign investor that is losing his shirt in San Diego and Florida and Sinapore and is starting to panic about the ripple effect in Vancouver and is astute enough to take a loss now before it gets crazy. Relieve the poor schmuck of his anxieties and pick up his over-priced condo for 50 cents on the dollar which is what it truly is worth
lou thanks for double-posting that rant on Chipman's site, it really helps. (end sarcasm)
On the other hand, I think your argument is weak at best. How about a link or some stats on recent changes in Canadian mortgage financing.
There's an article about VHB's blog-stopping over at the Tyee:
http://www.thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2007/02/20/VHB/
hi warren, how 'bout some stats to refute? if either one of you come up with stats, i'll be happy. i know, he said it first so he should have to give data first, so why should you, eh? so far, you haven't added anything, nor have i so i'll go back to sleep now.
Just read the Tyee report on the demise of the VHB and, though i was loathed to bring up vhb's departure yet again, i felt obliged to highlight this apparent contradiction:
At one point after his departure, he responds to Freako's comment with:
"Freako suspected it was most likely that his cover was blown. But the VHB responded, "none of the above. Just personal/professional life will be too busy to continue."
However..., he then says to the Tyee interviewer:
"Also, people vastly overestimate how much time things took. It really wasn't hard to cut and paste a newspaper article or to add one or two more data points to an existing spreadsheet and then post the graph."
Sorry, but this isn't some looney-left conspiracy theory about vhb being abducted by the Masonic, Area 51, Illuminati Cameron Muirists Disciples, no, it's a flat-out contradiction that demonstrates that his announced reason for leaving so suddenly is completely bogus.
On another note, it appears that the local bloggers appear to have lost their appetite to continue the conversation. I suppose apathy has prevailed.
I think Cecil's link is broken.read the vhb story
Ulster what is your theory?
Agreed, bc_cele.
VHB was a great blog, but I suspect another framework for bear discussion could be similarly useful, now that VHB has set a precedent.
None of the other sites are really stepping up.
I kinda tried an 'in the spirit of VHB' thread at RET
link
but I really don't think RET is the best venue.
Jesse quoted vhb as saying that it was the comments that made maintaining the blog so time consuming.
"On RET forum VHB says, "Actually, the comments are the most burdensome part."
I agree with bc_cele that in fact vhb didn't comment that much. There was a crew of usual suspect that kept the whole enterprise humming along. vhb's comments where relatively rare and usually added to refocus the direction of debate or clarify some point.
I'd also like to add that i wouldn't even be raising the "vhb departure" issue if any of the remaining blogs had become the substitute forum. It is certainly perplexing the absolute lack of interest. It appears that none of the blogs appears to be able to generate a self-sustaining momentum of commentary.
Solipsist: Super-mega-ultracongratulations! I hope you take some good time with the family and come back to posting refreshed and recharged.
Ulsterman:
I don't think its for lack of trying, but nobody else is VHB. I'm running a Monday question topic I received by email today and would love to hear everyone's thoughts regarding warning others against buying right now.
Thanks all!
It's a boy! 8 lbs. 15 oz. from a 110 lb woman.
Wow! 3 1/2 days in labour. I'm so glad it wasn't me doing it.
Today i said to my wife "frack it - let's buy a house", but after 1 minute of thought, we said no freakin' way.
Weird what a babby will do to your mind. Maybe that explains the upsurge lately - it's the Year of the Pig, and there are tons of babies being born.
I'll be back at it (posting) when I recover from a week of no sleep.
Stay tuned...
thank you Pope. i felt a whole new burst of enthusiasm to visit your site and see 29 comments with many of the usual-suspect contributers. Anyone else who has been wandering alone in the wilderness should head on over to http://vancouvercondo.info/ for some R&R.
Solipsist, congrats on the new addition to the family and i commend your blogging efforts - even if i will probably frequent the most used site from now on.
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