do you take this blog seriously?

A little bit earlier, someone posted this vituperous little gem -

Anonymous said...
I don't know what's funnier. The fact that a guy who has admitted to have never owning a real estate inveestment, or personal residence for that matter for decades (if ever) has a blog about the future of real estate in Vancouver, or that what appears to be a sizeable number of people are taking his blog entries seriously. link

It goes on a bit from there. I found that the scribe's lack of punctuation, spelling, and proof-reading left me not really able to take it seriously, but I was wondering if I have misrepresented in any way, and whether any of my small number of readers takes this blog seriously.

So I'm taking a poll.

THE POLL

Do you take this blog, or the blogger seriously?

Has this miserable little blog influenced you to buy? to not buy?

Do you think that this blogger has any idea what the hell he is rambling about?

Are you troubled that the blogger got a free soapbox on the Internet, and is using it?

I fervently hope that the answers to all the questions is a resounding NO!

Print it off, and fax your responses to:

Bitter Renter
c/o Riverview Hospital,
666-666-6666

gotta trust in something

It looks like things are getting more dicey for the US economy. What could it mean for us? And particularly, for our RE market? Century 21 Canada president Don Lawby doesn't think it's an issue. He figures that the BC economy is more diverse, and has grown faster than the US economy.

What about US investment in our real estate? Will Americans start dumping their empty condo's, etc. in BC as their payments become more onerous? Their profit-taking will be more profitable in a sense, but will buy them less French wine and Mercedes Benzes. Will American developers continue to build into a flagging economy (just to - y'know - be philanthropic), and keep the economy going?

The US is about to get even more protectionist, and the newly invigourated Democrats are pushing for trade sanctions against China. How will China respond to that? Dump more dollars? It seems as if the horse is already out of the barn.

There will be much less demand for oil, lumber, copper, etc. - all we really have besides tourism, and American tourists will stop coming as their dollar sinks, and the passport requirements kick in.

excerpted from The LA Times -

Another issue dogging the dollar is concern that China and other countries that hold trillions of dollars' worth of U.S. securities may increasingly seek to trim those assets in favor of non-dollar-denominated securities.

"The Chinese have been making noises in recent weeks about diversifying their holdings of foreign reserves," Kasriel noted. A People's Bank of China senior official repeated that theme in comments circulated Friday.

The momentum of a falling dollar could feed on itself because each decline reduces the value of foreigners' remaining U.S. assets.

The risk of a sell-off of U.S. securities by China has been a persistent concern for Wall Street in recent years, but it may be taking on more urgency now that the Democratic Party is about to regain control of Congress, analysts said. Some Democratic leaders are pushing for trade sanctions against China to shrink that country's massive trade surplus with the U.S.
link

In other financial news;

China is considering launching a live pig futures market to stabilize pig prices...

That's comforting.

Richmond construction fee increase

(CBC) - Richmond is planning a substantial increase to the amount of money developers pay to the city's affordable housing fund, as part of an effort to deal with the Lower Mainland's high real estate prices.

Construction companies can now pay 60 cents per square foot in lieu of adding lower-cost housing to new developments.

Under the city's new affordable housing strategy, that charge would go up to $4 per square foot in some cases. "What they've really done is simply increase the cost of new housing stock for Richmond," he said, "which means tomorrow's buyer of housing is being saddled with the cost of affordable housing when it's everybody's issue, not just new home buyers." link.

This seems to me to be wrong-headed. There was a requirement for developers to build "affordable" housing alongside the market housing. Richmond City Council offered them an "out" by tacking on $0.60 per sq. ft. This is not an onerous sum, as it would only add $1200 to the price of a 2000 sq. ft. home. Surely the developer added their 40% to that, which would bring it up to about $0.84 per sq. ft. My question is; how much money has Richmond spent on affordable housing? I would wager not too much.

So now they want to tack on another $8000 to the cost of that 2000 sq. ft. house, and by the time the developer adds his 40%, that number climbs to $12k. Council wants to make housing more affordable by making it more expensive? This is where I bring in one of my favourite quotes - by Tweedledee in Through the Looking Glass:

`Contrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, `if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic.'

I find myself wondering if this is just leger de main by Richmond City Council to cover the costs of the $178 million Olympic Oval - which was never subjected to any public consultation.

Richmond council candidate Annie McKitrick says civic funds spent on the $178,000 Olympic speedskating oval is money that could be used elsewhere.

Council candidate Annie McKitrick says the books need to be opened on Richmond's $178 million Olympic oval because the public was never consulted.

"The decision to make a bid on the oval was made without community consultation," said McKitrick, a former school trustee who is running for council on Nov. 19.

"We have no idea what staff said to sell council behind closed doors. It is $118 million worth of funding which won't be used for other projects like affordable housing. There are concerns about cost overruns and revenues not meeting projections."link

I am reminded daily of Marie Antoinette's exhortation - Let them eat cake!

We truly live in a society gone mad with feeding on it's self.

dissecting bias

Anatomia del corpo humano...
Rome, 1559. Copperplate engraving. National Library of Medicine.
Juan Valverde de Amusco
(ca. 1525 - ca. 1588)[anatomist]

A flayed cadaver holds his skin in one hand and a dissecting knife in the other. The skin’s distorted face has the appearance of a ghost or a cloud, suggesting that spirit has been separated from, or peeled off of, the fleshy inner man.
from here

There is something about the description above that reminds me both of the spiritless liturgy the passes for reporting, and of how people that fell for the hype and spin will feel when they start to realize negative equity, and their own credulousness. And just wait until they are hit by recession (part of the larger economic cycle).

Below I react to an article in The Sun -

The upside of British Columbia's real-estate-market cycle has been steep, but the downside will not be as rapid as in the U.S., according to the real estate firm Century 21 Canada.

This is garble. They mention cycles, but don't seem to have seen VHB's graph, or any other of the like. They do not seem to be paying attention to their own numbers either, though I suppose that they just added some adjectives to the press release from the dispassionate Huge RE firm. It's reassuring to hear that our "downside" will not be as rapid as that to the south. I must have missed the news about the US market hitting bottom, and beginning to rise to new, record levels.

House prices in select B.C. markets have been flat or risen up to 12 per cent in the last year. That follows a much steeper rise of between 89 per cent and 114 per cent over the last five years, Century 21 reported Wednesday in its annual survey of house prices.

Select BC markets hmm? Have "been flat or risen" (sic) - which is it ferfuxaches? I ought to have used the spin .gif for this post. It "follows a much steeper rise...the last five years", but if prices are flat, there is no more appreciation occuring, and if they are up 12%, that is still a considerable - if flagging - appreciation.

However, while the median U.S. house price dropped 11.5 per cent compared with a year ago, Century 21 Canada president Don Lawby said B.C.'s economy is strong enough and its real estate sector different enough to isolate the province from a similar decline.

Lawby, in an interview, said that while real estate sales have dropped, B.C.'s economy has grown more than the U.S. economy, and is spread across a more diverse base than has been the case in the past.

It doesn't much matter which way you cut with this knife, it still means the market is slowing markedly. And it's only beginning. China has been loading up on copper and other metals, so mining will likely slow. Lumber market already hurting in Ontario and Quebec - and likely in BC too, they just don't report on that. But don't you worry, everything will be ok. Just take this little pill. You did know that things are different here...right?

Just what is this greater economic diversity that we enjoy, that we had not before? Condo construction? The RAV Line? Highway construction? Five years of construction projects has added a great diversity? And since when has the BC economy been equatable with the US economy? Can we compare economies, but not market cycles?

Thanks to Derrick Penner and RET for the article, and the WTF? fuel for this post.

richie the roughneck from red deer

I came across this article today. I'll only post the opening paragraph because I don't want to contribute to any feeding frenzy that destroys yet another beautiful place.

Alberta money eyeing P.E.I. waterfront

CBC - With big money being made in Alberta, and the high real estate prices that go with it, some beneficiaries of the boom are looking to P.E.I. for more affordable property alternatives.

Yesterday Kimberly asked what is the next sexy investment? at VHB. This could be one of the answers. But I think it's a crazy one. There is a reason that land is cheap in Atlantic Canada - there is little in the way of an economy, and little in the way of amenities and infra-structure.

There is Anne of Green Gables, Charlottetown (yee-haw!), and a seasonal tourism trade, potato farms that have suffered bad crops for a few years, but that's about it. That is the charm of the region. The only thing that will happen to it is negative - in the long run. The locals will not be able to live where they are born. It's already bad enough with so many having to move away.

There is some off-shore oil and gas, so I suppose that there will be a demand for experienced oil people. Will they be bringing their derricks and donkey pumps with them to mine the black gold on the useless, deserted beaches?

When will this need to feed stop? I'm awfully sick of it.




I did the photoshop collage.

let's develop stanley park!

There has been so much talk about the dearth of land to build on in Vancouver, so I have been thinking about it for quite a while. And I have a few solutions. I will be presenting my proposals over the coming days - as time affords.

My first, and best idea is to develop Stanley Park. Sacrilege! you cry. Preposterous! I hear. But my reasoning is sound.

Stanley Park is 405 hectares, or 1000 acres. A fair bit of that land is already missing it's trees, and is covered by asphalt, concrete, tennis courts, cheesy souvenir stands, etc., so the trees aren't that sacred. How about taking just half of it? Cut it, burn it, pave it, and paint it green. Greenspace is greenspace, right? Then, build thousands of exclusive condos, and sell them off to rich Albertans, and displaced Chinese peasant farmers who made it big in Shanghai.

Crime bosses and dictators always have lots of money too, and they know how to run things. Hey, instead of random, petty crime, we can get it more organized. Once the Olympics have faded into a recurring nightmare of debt, VANOC can become the Vancouver Organized Crime syndicate - headquartered in Stanley Park. We need some corporate headquarters here anyway. The other, "pristine" side of the park can be renamed Olly Park, and the Theatre Under the Stars can do laser shows and re-run Laurel and Hardy films. It would be a hit.

I think the condo development could be pretty cool. Turn the Aquarium into a fitness centre - it already has a pool. Just think of the superstars that we could attract. Rich people would be willing to spend tens of millions of dollars on pool-side condos. Bub Rainy would have a great time marketing that. Pamela Anderson could be the icon. Local girl, animal lover, etc.

'Swim with the Dolphins! Ride a Beluga! Feed the Seals! Play with the otters!

Only the incredibly wealthy and smart and beautiful people will get a chance at this opportunity.

If you are none of the above, you can move to Pincher Creek'

I've already got tons of ideas for the circulars.

This could be you!


No need for pets - these are cuter, and are thrown in by the developer as an incentive.

The lighthouse would make a very cool, very tony condo conversion.

The Miniature Railway could be extended to the Rav Line to make airport access a breeze for the priveleged.

Siwash Rock obstructs some of the views, but it could be removed, and the materials used in construction - thereby making construction costs much less expensive.

I could go on and on (and I am), but you get the idea.

Any thoughts?

Next edition will feature Queen Elizabeth Park






(I did the photoshop image of Pam and the pups.)

the changing city

This link is an interesting photo "fade" produced by the City of Vancouver. It shows a transition of the downtown over 25 years from 1978 - 2003.

Vantage points include Stanley Park, and views east and west from the Cambie and Granville bridges.

I have been meaning to do a morph using some of my own photos, but time constraints have...constrained me.

Enjoy.

silver lining

I've been on a bit of a tirade the last few days. Time to soften it up a bit...

The good news about the monsoons that fouled the city's drinking water is that it translates into snow on the Coast Mountains. That translates into Grouse, Cypress and Whistler ski hills opening a couple of weeks early. Grouse has 108 cm/43.2 inches of snow already. The weather is still a bit unstable, and Grouse has released this advisory for today:

Due to strong winds and the uncertainty of the weather this afternoon, Grouse Mountain has suspended operations for the rest of the day. We will be open tomorrow as usual. We appologise for any inconvenience.

There is a palpable exuberance to the report. We opened early, but have to close. And they forgot to check the spelling. But they must be happy after a few lack-lustre years. Any happy skiers/snow boarders out there?

Grouse reports on-going labour shortages. Hardly surprising as the unemployment levels remain low in the Lower Mainland.

Current Conditions at Grouse Mountain: (11:47 AM November 19/06)

STRONG WINDS!!!

Temperature: 3 ºC / 37.4 ºF
Overnight Low: -1 ºC / 30.2 ºF
Humidity: 76 %
Visibility: variable


Average Snow Depth: 108 cm / 43.2 in
New Snow Overnight: 5 cm / 2 in
New Snow Past 24hrs: 5 cm / 2 in
Freezing Level: 2000 m / 6667 ft
Total Snowmaking: 0 cm
Total Snowmaking in past 24 hrs: 0 cm
Total Snow Fall 06/07: 149 cm

Current Conditions at Cypress Bowl (11/19/2006 6:30:00 AM)

Conditions: : EXTREME
Base Temp: 4 deg. Celsius

Visibility: : Unlimited
Winds: : STRONG
Fresh Snow:: 0 cm
Snow Depth: (Mid Mtn): 115cm

THE SKI AREA WILL BE CLOSED TODAY DUE TO EXTREME WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITION. BOTH THE DOWN HILL AND CROSS COUNTRY AREA WILL OPEN TOMORROW (Monday) AT 9AM

Here are the Whistler conditions:

Last Updated:
Nov. 19 at 06:12
NEW SNOW from whistlerblackcomb.com Snow:
New 24 Hours 48 Hours 7 Days Snowbase
2 cm 12 cm 22 cm 129 cm
1 in 5 in 9 in 51 in
Total cumulative snowfall *Snow depths are measured at Pig Alley Weather
Station - 1650m (Mid-Mountain) on Whistler Mtn.
252 cm
99 in



WEATHER Weather:
Temp at 12:30 Winds Visibility
Peak -3°C / 27°F Strong at 28-55 km/h from the SE Variable
Alpine 1°C / 35°F
Village 3°C / 37°F (Environment Canada Forecast)

Visibility variable, alpine temp-3, valley temp 2, winds srtong from south. Freezing level 1800m and falling. 20-30 cm of new snow today, alpine high 0, alpine low-6, winds strong from south, freezing level valley (Environment Canada Alpine Forecast)

1000 acres of terrain open on Whistler
Upload and download available via Village and Creekside gondolas
Early season conditions apply. Please ski andride with care.
Watch for unmarked rocks and obstacles
Park rails and snow features available at top of Emerald Express

branding vancouver

This has been bugging me for a while. It really set me off the other day when I read this article over at RET. One of the lines in particular rendered me even more apoplectic -

Baxter said the construction stimulated by the games is "the real issue . . . which brings a lot of people who would otherwise go to [Alberta's] oilpatch."

Then, more importantly, is the role the games' play in reinforcing Vancouver as a brand, because "the Olympics is not a destination event, it's a branding event."

Reinforcing a brand? To what purpose? If I wanted to live in a brand, I would go and live in the mindlessness of Celebration, U.S.A.: Disney's Brave New Town.

I didn't move here 20 years ago because Vancouver was a cool brand, I moved here because I found a laid-back little city that was unpretentious. Now everything is being branded - Science World becomes Telus Land, we have GM Place, what else did I miss? Coffee just isn't coffee unless it's Starbucks or Tim Horton's (it's all crappy coffee - no matter how much it costs you), people walk around with their Tommy Hilfrigger, DINK sweats, Nike this or that, and so on, paying huge money to advertise for rich cats.

Who wants to pay double what it's worth to live in Vancouver TM? I didn't vote for that. Who gains from it? All I do is lose from it. Bub Rainy, Gordon (Jail Bird) Campbell, the owners of IntraWest, and their ilk are getting filthy rich from the branding of Vancouver, and we are paying for it. And our children will be paying for it. It is so sad and ridiculous, it makes me laugh. But it's a nervous, embarrassed kind of laughter.

I voted against the Olympics, and I voted against the hundreds of millions of dollars to be borrowed by the city. There was a fairly clear division between East Van. and Van. West in that vote. East Vancouver voted against it by-and-large, with the opposite true for Vancouver West. The summer that Vancouver/Whistler's bid was accepted, I was in Ontario, and someone congratulated me on the award. Poor guy set me off, and I started railing about what it would really mean - higher home prices, higher taxes, deficits, and debt. I hadn't even considered the branding.

Humans are sickeningly stupid (pardon my misanthropy). A case in point is the water issue right now. People running out to buy brands of water. I heard that a couple of people actually got into a fist-fight because they both wanted the last couple of bottles of Whistler brand water. There was probably generic water from the same source d'eau right beside it for half the price, but it wasn't branded, so they fought over it. Here's a lttle brand trivia for you - Evian (a huge brand of water) spells Naive backwards.

Branding. Hmmph!

third world class

Welcome to Vancouver! Home of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games (well, unless the snow doesn't show up in sufficient quantities).

Vancouver is a world class city! It fits in comfortably with Mexico City (though we don't have the weather that they have, and they had the Olympics 38 long years ago), Tegucigalpa (though their water is more potable), and Addis Ababa (though their mountains are not as spectacularly snow-peaked), and Los Angeles (though they only had the piddlin' Summer Olympics, and their cops are tougher).

Yesterday there were 2 million people in the Lower Mainland who were warned to boil their water. Today, that number was halved to merely 1 million people. One million pregnant women, children, elderly, and the heavily mortgaged. The news spread far and wide very quickly. Last night I had three calls from other parts of Canada - concerned for our well-being. I also had an e-mail from the US with the same concerns. I didn't even know of the advisory before receiving these calls.

Hotels in Vancouver were quick to spread the advisory to all hotel rooms, and offered bottled water to their guests. Coffee shops and restaurants were hit where it hurts as they had to refuse their clients anything involving tap water. There were a lot of cranky, caffeine-deficient people in Vancouver the last couple of days.

I can just imagine visitors filling up their bathtubs with the murk that is on tap, and thinking that they might be better off to smell bad for their flights out of town. And what if any of them become sick with Giardia (classically known as Beaver Fever. How very Canadian...), Cryptosporidium, or such. And what if they sent their nice white shirts to the hotel laundry, and they came back looking as if someone had pissed all over them?

I was not personally affected - we have been drinking spring water for years, and have a good supply of 18 litre bottles stocked (because of the chlorine, we avoid tap water for drinking. At least there is no fluoride added.). I have also had amoebic dysentery, and Giardia, and have a pretty tough intestinal tract, but I had those infections in the Third World - where it can be expected. But Vancouver? That's some bad press man.

Third World Class. The city where people live on the streets. Where you can't even brush your flipping teeth unless you use bottled water (good luck finding any). The city where the middle class can't afford to buy the crappiest house.

Are we over ourselves yet?



VHB and The Pope already posted on this, but I am behind the curve. I have been as busy as, well, a beaver. A beaver crapping in the reservoirs.

journalism and spin

image from here

I heard a conversation with Wendy Mesley (a Gemini Award winning investigative journalist) of the CBC last night in which she was asked a question about journalists, and why there was so little depth to the reportage. Ms. Mesley stated -

"It's really hard now to be a good journalist...there's so much pressure with 24/7 news...to pump it out. The resources are down, so companies - newspapers, or networks - don't want to spend a lot of money digging up complicated stuff. It's really hard to tell a story that people do not want to be told...(they want) easy stuff."

When asked about her own investigative journalism, and how she gets away with it, Ms. Mesley stated further that there are

"hints from the sales department that they are not too thrilled, and it's understandable. What other network (besides the CBC) would want to do a series that takes on it's biggest sponsors?. That's condidered nuts at any other network"

It becomes clear why there is so much blah, blah in the Sun, Province, Glib and Meaningless, etc. - the sponsors. All of those RE advertisements are what keep the rags ragging. This is fairly transparent, and has been discussed elsewhere, but it begs the question - why bother even reading the stuff? It's essentially meaningless. That is why so many people have turned to VHB, Calgary Contrarian, Bubblemeter, etc. Although there is still a bias, it is a transparent bias, and it is not driven by pleasing non-existent sponsors.

I can commiserate somewhat - It must be hard for Derrick Penner and the like. I don't feel that it excuses folks like Cameron Muir though. No advertising there, and CMHC has a duty of care to tax-paying Canadians. Why does he pump the hype?

mea culpa

image from here

Yesterday I made a badly flawed post in which I completely misinterpreted what I was commenting on. I did not proof-read before I posted. I apologize for my blunder, and thank freako for pointing it out.

calculations

So, I was trying to extrapolate future trends in Vancouver (un)real estate as we move forward to 2010 - the Big Party year for Vancouver.

It has been said that the median price for an SFH will be $1 million by then. So I crunched the numbers, and they made me think that this is the best time to buy!

Messrs Valouche, Muir, et al have been quite conservative in their forecasts. When I punched the numbers into my trusty calculator I came up with Error: Positive Infinity (see screen shot above).

Where did I go wrong?

spin

Spin it up!

Headline in the Glum and Maladroit Sunday declares Bidding wars disappearing in Vancouver.

It sounds like good news at first. Or is it bad news? Depends on the spin.

I liked this caveat -

Nobody is talking about a crash. Limited land supply, population growth, the 2010 Winter Olympics and a strong regional economy all point to long-term healthy housing demand. But there is a sense the air is leaking out of what had become an overinflated market.

I don't know about that, a lot of people are talking about a crash. The only ones not talking about it are the drunk on appreciation of the last few years, and the just plain drunk. Okay, the vested interests in general. And there is that limited land thing, the Olympics, and the (temporarily) healthy regional economy.

I like this one too -

“On the Labour Day weekend, I sold a house in Shaughnessy for $300,000 over listing [price] with 10 offers,” Macdonald Realtors agent Lorne Goldman says.

Great, 2 1/2 months ago a home sold for over asking. Well maybe they listed at $500k under assessed. Then the aside -

“Those days are becoming less frequent.”

I smell the first inkling of capitulation there.

But anybody hoping that prices may come back within reach for first-time buyers is likely to be disappointed. Slowdown or no, Vancouver real estate remains too expensive for many.

Yet they talk about population growth as part of the formula. Is it possible that there can not be a first time buyers' market anymore? Is Vancouver just going to go into stasis? A ridiculous assertion.

A search for a single-family, detached home under $600,000 on Vancouver's west side yields three listings all on land leased from the Musqueam Indian Band... A heritage home in Mount Pleasant is listed at $799,000, despite having suffered a fire last year.

here they resort to list prices (as if they will get those now), and focus on VW. They're talking like a DJ, but not really saying anything (neither am I, but I am having fun).

“Affordability is a big issue in Vancouver. And affordability is likely getting worse at a [September] rate of increase of nearly 17 per cent. Because there's very little chance that the income growth will grow at the same rate,” says Craig Alexander, deputy chief economist with TD Economics. He anticipates the rate of price increases will continue to slow.

“Twelve months from now, I would bet that home price growth in Vancouver would be in the single digits. That's not a terrible outcome, that's a healthy income.”

Try negative double digits boffin. When will we see them start comparing to 1992 prices to show how well we are doing?

Rick Valouche, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, says the market is becoming more balanced. And this year's total sales are on track to surpass last year's record total, he says.

And Canada is on track to meet emissions reductions too.

Some buyers might be sitting on their hands as they assess whether wobbles in the U.S. housing market will affect Vancouver, says Bob Rennie, whose Rennie Marketing Systems sells Lower Mainland condominiums like proverbial hotcakes. U.S. housing prices took their biggest drop in 35 years in September.

But that won't happen here. Why?

But after a few months, those buyers will be back in, Mr. Rennie predicts, driven by factors that include the coming the 2010 Olympics, a shortage of land and the perception of Vancouver as a safe place to invest.

Indeed. Much safer than Jalalabad or Pyongyang. Oh, and did you notice? Rennie drags out the Olympics and the shortage of land again. I guess everything will keep on going up - until we face the shame of not being able to host the Olympics because of a lack of snow. Salt Lake City will benefit though. Probably start another housing boom over it.

His firm also recently sold 40 per cent of the units in a new Burnaby high-rise over a weekend.

Didn't they used to brag about selling out in a weekend? I guess people are not as bold in Burnaby. Does anyone have any Craigslist reports on what is being flipped in OMA?

And finally -

Mr. Webber, who works in commercial real estate, is confident he'll sell his house, a nearly new, three-bedroom detached townhouse in waterfront Steveston. And he doesn't sound overly dismayed that he's had to drop the price from an original $679,000 to $659,900, which is still well above what he paid three years ago.

This does not sound like a slowing of appreciation, this sounds like a reversal. I guess it depends on how you spin it.

Excuse the cut and paste patchwork, and the lack of direction, I have just been hankering to use the cool animated gif, and have been really busy.

urban renewal

image from save the cob garden

This is an interesting story that has been going on for quite some time in East Vancouver.

There is a lot at the corner of Napier Dr. and Salsbury Dr. in East Vancouver that had become "overgrown" with large trees, a few of which were rare, and two century-old pre-fab worker's houses (which were listed #6 on the City's Heritage schedule of threatened historical structures). In addition, there was a cob house built by local residents (picture above). For decades, local children played in the gardens, which were cultivated by locals. The owner had no objections to this use. The lot became a de facto park over time.

After the death of the owner, his estate sold the lot in 2005 to a developer, Niebuhr Construction, for a reported $700k. The developer had plans to demolish the gardens, heritage structures and the cob house in order to erect two duplexes on the property. These plans were vociferously challenged by local residents, who eventually lobbied the Parks Board to purchase the property and maintain it as a park and learning centre. The Parks Board agreed, and offered the developer market value. The developer refused to sell it, and hired homeless people to squat on the lot, and to keep children and locals out. They also destroyed any work that the local gardeners did.

Finally, the locals appealed to the Board of Variance, who proceeded to overturn the development permits. The developer took the City to court, and the City Council fired the five member board en masse, and hired a new board friendlier to the developer. The new board reversed the fired board's decision, and the court case was dropped. Then the fired Board of Variance went to court to challenge their termination. For the whole saga, check The Republic stories here and here

Recently Niebuhr Construction sold the property to another developer for $1.2 million. Last week I drove by and saw that the two heritage structures had been torn down, and a lot of the trees removed, and the gardens bull-dozed. The cob house still stood. Tonight I drove by and saw that the cob house is now gone, and there is an excavation pit on the contentious property.

Okay, so it's a free market, and the owner is allowed to do as he pleases, but it's a damned shame. A quite nice neighbourhood has had it's guts torn out in the spirit of growth.

living in Squalor

I received this link today from antz.

He saw this posting by Amelia over at Real Estate Talks

oh my lord! Look at what you can "get" for $289,000 of your hard earned dollars!!! (is this madness, or am I just out to lunch?) This is a tear down!
Am I wrong? No wonder there is a homeless situation in the lower mainland.
At these prices, we're all going to be out on our arses.

Here's what $289k begs to be dropped on in Squalor. Er, Squamish. At first blush you might think a nice little cabin to live in while I build my dream home.



But a closer look reveals that it actually needs some work first.



Really, it needs a bit more than that. What the heck is this? Did someone fall off The Chief and crash through the roof?



Are there any skeletons in any of the closets? Worse? Perhaps it's toxic with mine runoff?

It is a 50'x120' lot, but it is a brutal commute from Vancouver, and it's Squamish.

Couldn't the vendors at least have the decency to torch the place and sell it as a vacant lot?

I've never thought too much about Squamish, other than it's a bit of a shame with all the pollution and such, but Lady Luck over at RET seems to loathe the place. Full of crack-heads, rednecks and bikers, and the new and naive real estate refugees from Vancouver. Apparently a lot of absentee landlords too, and a council full of city slickers - bent on cheesy development.

thanks VHB

graphic from the mast-head of the Vancouver Housing Market Blog


Today there was an article in The Tyee about Vancouver Housing Market Blog. It's a good read if you want some background on the best housing blog I have seen. Check it out, and be sure to check VHB's blog.

I won't rehash it all here, but essentially VHB was the first that I have seen that thinks the housing market in Vancouver is ...stupidly out of whack. Most of the readers of my humble little blog will already know VHB (you most likely came from there). I owe it to him and to Vancouver Condo Info for inspiring me to start this blog, and for my readership. Both of these fine gentlemen posted links to this blog on their own blogs, and VHB furthered that by mentioning Vancouver Condo Info, and this blog in a post at The Tyee.

VHB has had in the neighbourhood of 2 million visitors to his blog since he started in March 2005. Many of the commentators on his blog thank him effusively for saving them from jumping in the market before they are "priced out forever" (the mantra of the RE schills).

The analysis there leaves little to be desired - it is concise, extensive, and factual. You will meet people like freako there - a sometimes ascerbic, but always fair curmudgeon with a Spock-like logic.

Anyhow, I am a bit behind on the blogging today, and this serves as my daily post.

Thanks again VHB (for more than the fish).