what does gas have to do with it?

Yesterday I talked about the price of gas, discretionary spending, the economy, and housing prices. The Sun must be reading here because today, they have a story about the gas prices, inflation, and real estate.

Inflation is here, no matter how well hidden. Fuel prices are going to bring this all down, forget about jobs, interest rates, etc. Everything costs more when fuel costs more. Everything.

Think about those who bought in the valley after carefully budgeting, and realizing that there is now $100/month extra (or more) in commuting costs. Oops. Food is up too. So is home heat (but that won't be fully realized until next winter). What does $200/month more do to that budget? Lots of macaroni, I'd wager. Those that stretched to buy may find it impossible to keep up.

Are fuel prices perhaps going to be our "external factor" to change psychology? When inflation is finally admitted, interest rates will go up, employment will go down. The housing market will cool, and reverse.

Read the article (between the folksy lines), and make your own deduction. The summer driving season has not even arrived yet. Will gas be $1.50/L then? Sorry about yer tourism.

$5.85 an imperial gallon is a king's ransom

Pete McMartin, Vancouver Sun
Published: Tuesday, May 15, 2007

The bad news is, I am now spending $1.30 for a litre of gasoline.

The good news is, I am now spending $1.30 for a litre of gasoline.

How to square those two sentences?

Thusly:

I live in Delta, which, for some reason I really don't care to know, has the highest gasoline prices in the Lower Mainland, and therefore, quite possibly, in North America.

For those monarchists who still calculate the weight of their rib roasts in pounds and not kilograms, that $1.30 per litre works out to $5.85 per imperial gallon, a king's ransom. British Columbians' gouging at the pumps now rivals that of the British themselves, whose astronomical gas prices we once took a strange, self-satisfied comfort in, regaling ourselves as we did with breathless stories of the exorbitant amounts of money the Brits would pay to run their Vauxhalls. Tsk tsk, you could hear us say. Seventy-five dollars for a fill-up! How could the poor dears do it? It made us feel good about ourselves as we cruised the Safeway parking lot in our Hummers.

Those days are over, never to return again. The price might fall from today's vertiginous heights, but not so much that we will ever be able to approach a gas station again without a sense of dread.

For suburbanites such as myself, who must commute, this will mean an added economic burden.

For lower-income families, who have been forced into the suburbs by high real estate prices, it may mean the difference between owning a second car, or a home. For a hot economy like Canada's, rising gas prices could mean an inflationary spiral.

what bubble?

A cheap post.

A cheap excuse to put up a picture of li'l solipsist.

Little gaffer has blown a bubble, and is blissfully unaware. His belly is full, he's warm, and he's dreaming. He is not thinking of tomorrow, wouldn't dream of things ever being any different. He is unable to - mostly from lack of experience.

It kinda made me think of the home-buying hordes - unaware of the bubble that is about to pop right under their noses.


OT: I saw gas at $1.30/L this weekend. That's gonna dig into those mortgage payments of those who commute to and fro' the valley. Discretionary spending is getting squeezed, and will be reflected in the economy very soon. We just don't have that kind of money.

let them eat hamburger

I was mumbling about CPI, M3, inflation etc., a while back, and came across a site that discusses how CPI was rejigged. According to the author(s), it is understated by about 7%. There are all kinds of fallacious arguments about quality and safety being better, but I have never bought them.

The article is discussing the US position, but it is surely applicable to Canada.

A couple of choice quotes from the article;

Inflation, as reported by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is understated by roughly 7% per year.

In recent decades, however, the reporting system increasingly succumbed to pressures from miscreant politicians, who were and are intent upon stealing income from social security recipients, without ever taking the issue of reduced entitlement payments before the public or Congress for approval.

The Boskin/Greenspan argument was that when steak got too expensive, the consumer would substitute hamburger for the steak, and that the inflation measure should reflect the costs tied to buying hamburger versus steak, instead of steak versus steak. Of course, replacing hamburger for steak in the calculations would reduce the inflation rate, but it represented the rate of inflation in terms of maintaining a declining standard of living. Cost of living was being replaced by the cost of survival. The old system told you how much you had to increase your income in order to keep buying steak. The new system promised you hamburger, and then dog food, perhaps, after that.

It's worth reading, and exploring the whole site.

shadowstats

more shadowstats

Edit: Thanks to casual observer for the link. I couldn't remember how I got there, and casual had posted the link on the previous thread to this one.

D-ohpe (baby-brain).

breakdowns

I've written before about the madness of man, wondered at the disconnection from "reality", and mumbled about a depression coming. Some might say that I am bedecked in a shiny metal haberdashery, but there is a real strangeness going on.

Why did the US stop reporting M3? Why would CMHC fuel this madness by dropping to 20% the down payment required to avoid mortgage insurance? Why do "they" jig the way that inflation is reported - leaving it understated?

I was at my bank the other day and was discussing mortgage qualification with the manager. I mentioned to him that his bank had qualified me for $600k, and that I would just not be able to afford those kinds of payments. He told me that "everything changed, and disconnected from sound lending practices a couple of years ago. He agreed with me that those practices are dangerous, and plain crazy. We discussed the RE market, economy, education, etc. for a while, and he didn't know much. He almost offered me a job, saying that I should work for the bank. Me? I know things are bad now.

Where I'm going with all this is that I think we are in for some serious economic meltdowns in the very near future. I read that Cameron Muir said that things are cooling, and a more modest increase in housing prices is expected for this year, and into 2008. I believe he said 8% for this year. How could that possibly be? The Chipman Report indicates that prices are declining very marginally (1%-2%) - as I read it. I am really beyond caring anymore. It just doesn't merit reporting on.

I can't for the life of me figure why the BoC did not raise rates. The prices of energy and housing have become so daunting that something needs to give. I've always had a good feeling about David Dodge, and am wondering what comes next. Being that our dollar is closing in on the US$, it can't but indicate that the US is in very rough shape. Those who don't make the connection to our own economy are in for a rude surprise.

We are heading for a major breakdown. As freako so eloquently described it - 'humming down the Autobahn, and all the warning lights on the dash are blinking furiously, and nobody notices (or something like that). Just wait until the costs of whatever the guvmint comes up with to "battle" greenhouse gases start to crush us. There is already talk of upping the GVRD gas levy, hydro rates going up, property taxes up, food costs, pay per use this and that. Something's gonna give. There is just not that kind of money around. Not real money, anyhow.

Those who "steer" the economy (and us with it), should have put the brakes on a long time ago, but they didn't. In the US, it was purportedly to avoid recession, but the situation is so exacerbated that a recession would be the kindest of fates. The whole thing is like swerving to miss running over a chipmunk, and going head-on into an oncoming truck. It's crazy.

Below I have pasted a few quotes from an article that I read, that spurred me to drag this rant out again. I read the article as broadly contextual, and recommend the reading - with the economy, and RE (and so much more) in mind.

Conflagration coming link
System breakdowns are normal, but complete collapses can be permanent
By Michael Nenonen

By now it’s clear that our world faces a series of unprecedented ecological, economic, and geopolitical challenges. Too often, we look at these challenges in isolation from one another, perhaps because we don’t have a theoretical foundation to help us understand how they interact. Thomas Homer-Dixon’s The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (Knopft Canada, 2006) provides just this sort of foundation. His work allows us to see past the sizzling trees to assess the direction and scale of the fire that’s consuming the forest.

It’s dangerous to prevent breakdowns. The longer we delay a breakdown, the more likely it is that it will occur at the same time as breakdowns in sub-systems and macro-systems.

Our woods will soon be ablaze. Our actions will determine which seeds, if any, will survive the fire.

What me worry? I have a tin foil hat!

kit houses - a blast from the past

I read a story at the Glob of Mucous about Sears homes delivered by rail (in pieces) in the early 1900's. Prices ranged from $400 - $3200, and you had to build them yourself (or hire someone to do it). Cute little houses they were too. Sears would give a ten year mortgage on them with payments of $30-$40 per month. During the Depression, people did default on them. Now, houses, and the monthly payments, are 100x more.

Oh, sweet nostalgia.

Edit - I forgot to mention (from the article) -

The price was cheap. The materials were not. Cypress shingles, bronze door hinges, glazed windows, granite bathtubs. They came in styles and shapes and sizes befitting a wealthy farm owner. They also came in smaller sizes, at prices affordable to even an immigrant coal miner.

They carried evocative names such as The Montrose, a seven-room, one-bath Eastern colonial with green shutters, flower boxes and a hooded gable entrance. "Justly considered a beautiful home in any community, no matter how exclusive," said the catalogue.

Granite bath tubs - fergit yer granite counter tops - those are low-brow.

And the marketing was good then too - according to the catalogue. Evocative names. ...no matter how exclusive. No mention of luxury though.

the grab bag # 7

Lots of For Sale signs sprouting like psilocybin mushrooms out there.



I say that because the etymology of psilocybin is:

psilocybin

1958, from Mod.L. psilocybe, name of a Central Amer. species of mushroom, from Gk. psilos "bare" (akin to psen "to rub") + kybe "head."

Online Etymology Dictionary, © 2001 Douglas Harper

"bare head" - as in - "no helmet to protect the head in the case of a crash". Or if you go with psen "to rub", it is akin to scratching your head in disbelief, or such. Hmmph.

The buyers must be hallucinating.
_____________________________________________________________________________________

In other vistas, Fannie Mae is accused of fraud by KPMG.

KPMG claims fraud at Fannie Mae
By Bloomberg News | April 21, 2007

WASHINGTON -- KPMG LLP sued former auditing client Fannie Mae, the biggest source of money for US home loans, for "fraudulent deception" that prevented KPMG from uncovering $6.3 billion in overstated earnings.

Fannie Mae from 1998 until 2004 withheld and distorted its accounting, engaging in "breach of contract, fraudulent misrepresentation, fraudulent inducement" and other wrongdoing, New York-based KPMG said in an April 16 filing with the US District Court in Washington. A Fannie Mae spokesman declined to comment.

Uh oh. That's big. Isn't it? Isn't that like CHMC being accused of fraud? How come nobody is talking about this?
_____________________________________________________________________________________

I heard the chief Of West Fraser Timber (2nd biggest in Canada) saying that the forestry business in Canada is well into recession (on CBC radio). Um, isn't forestry the biggest exporter of the BC economy, and one of it's biggest drivers? Or are things different now?

stocks vs. real estate

I found this here, and thought that it might be of interest (no pun intended). I emphasised a couple of lines.

The premise is that the stock market out-performs RE in the long term. Not exactly news, but there are some pretty charts and numbers. It is a 9 page series.

Of course, these last 7 years or so are an aberration, and it's different... blah, blah.

Stocks vs. Real Estate

Both real estate and stocks have had their day, but the question you need answered is this: Which contender is the superior long-term bet today?
By Marlys Harris, Money Magazine senior editor

Round 1

Performance
Real estate has packed quite a punch of late, appreciating 12.4% annually between 2001 and 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price index. That clobbered stock prices, which gained only 4.3% a year as measured by the S&P 500.
But over the long run stocks win easily. A new study by Jack Clark Francis, a finance and economics professor at Baruch College in New York City, and Yale's Roger G. Ibbotson compared the annual returns of real estate from 1978 to 2004 compared with those of 15 different "paper" investments, including stocks, bonds, commodities futures, mortgage securities and real estate investment trusts (REITs).

The results? Housing delivered a solid but unimpressive annualized return of 8.6%. Commercial property did better at 9.5%. The S&P, however, delivered a crushing 13.4%.

Other studies argue that real estate's returns are much worse. Yale finance and economics professor Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, who looked back to 1890, contends that only twice has real estate produced truly outstanding returns: after World War II, when returning troops were starting their families, and from 1998 to 2005, a period he thinks is a bubble.

Housing's rate of return, he argues, has to trend back to the mean of about 3% a year - barely above the inflation rate. If that's starting to happen now, he says, we could be facing many years of losses.

Before you decide that real estate is already down for the count, though, consider this: Equity REITs, which own stakes in commercial properties, were among the best performers in the Francis-Ibbotson study, with annual returns of 14.8%. But REITs are stocks, after all.

From the last page -

Real estate's only big win is in leverage. Using that leverage to buy a home you can afford makes sense. You're building equity and collecting other benefits as well. (And no landlord can stop you from owning a big, hairy dog or throwing a party for 200 of your noisiest friends.)

But jumping into the real estate ring thinking you'll use others' money to score an investing knockout is plenty risky. And the big prize, as you may have noticed if you've tried to flip a condo lately, is more elusive than it might have seemed.

I personally think that the stock markets and RE are over-valued right now, and I can't figure out what is going on except for cheap money. That cheap money is about to get more expensive by all indications.

condo culture

I have taken swipes at marketing - specifically of real estate in the past. Recently, there is a new blog on the block - so to speak - condohype which is a very good read. Their most recent thread brought marketing into focus, and then I came across an article in one of my favourite publications - The Republic of East Vancouver. I will excerpt some of it below for illustration, as I think that it is particularly well written. Read the whole thing for a lucid take.

Vancouver's condo industry has embraced "culture" and "art" as a fundamental part of many sales pitches. The cultural allusions run thick in local ad copy. Where once the real estate industry emphasized a residence as a good place to “raise a family,” today they use “lifestyle” to lure prospective buyers.

By correlating cultural commodities of distinction with the people of distinction who purchase them, the marketers construct its imagined clientele at the same time it makes its pitch. Who is this new clientele?

...in a recent New Home Buyers Guide article, Susan Boyce enthuses, "When you're ready to explore, you're at the very heart of what makes Vancouver a vibrant, truly world-class city. Perhaps a night at the opera or symphony? Or an afternoon pondering the latest showing at the Vancouver Art Gallery. Maybe you'd prefer wine tasting . . . .”

...this strategy "inspires a new language dealing with difference" and "a coded means of discrimination." The mobilization of taste as a mark of distinction appeals to a specific type of resident in the downtown, one who has had the time and money to invest in developing these tastes, tastes developed outside the exigencies of the labour market. Put bluntly, the ads employ coded class appeals to differentiate their target audience.

Condo Salesperson seeks cool, authentic, risk-oblivious people, either sex, for fun and debt-bondage.

It goes on, and I don't want to reproduce it here, but it's worth reading.

Ack. Choke. Please, tell me who I am, tell me what I want/need. Ack.

taxes, empty pockets, empty dreams

I heard on CBC today that residential property taxes in Vancouver are going to increase by 8% plus, while business property taxes will have a lesser increase than they expected.

I have always thought that res. prop. taxes were a "good deal" here, in comparison with other jurisdictions in which I have lived. It's a closing of the barn door after the horse has fled though. Vancouver has lost a lot of businesses through the onerous burden of those taxes. I can't help but wonder though, if it is just a légère de main to cover some of the Olympics costs. There is already a rumbling of discontent with the Olympics scam, and it is not confined to "left-wing nutters". It strangely comes just a couple of days after announcement of huge cost over-runs in the new convention centre construction. It seems to me that I heard that they had doubled? (I can't say for sure, because I am in and out of earshot of the radio all day)

Oh well, it's worth it. Vancouver is...the....best....place..........in the world. Maybe just a little bit more expensive.

And then this eye opener on taxes from the Astute Fraser Institute (well, once in a while) - link

The Canadian Consumer Tax Index tracks the total tax bill of
the average Canadian family from 1961 to 2006
• The total tax bill for the average Canadian family, including
all types of taxes, has increased by 1,590 percent since 1961
• In 1961, the average family had an income of $5,000 and paid
a total tax bill of $1,675 (33.5 percent). In 2006, the average
Canadian family earned an income of $63,001 and paid total
taxes equalling $28,311 (44.9 percent)
• Taxes have grown much more rapidly than any other single
expenditure for the average Canadian family. In contrast to
the jump in taxes, expenditures on shelter increased by 1,019
percent, food by 487 percent, and clothing by 447 percent
from 1961 to 2006
• The average Canadian family now spends more of its income
on taxes than it does on the basic necessities such as food,
shelter, and clothing. In 1961 the average family had to use
56.5 percent of its income on basic necessities (food, shelter and clothing), while only 33.5 percent of the family’s income went to taxes. In 2006, the proportion of income consumed by taxes had increased (44.9 percent), while the fraction of income spent on shelter, food, and clothing (35.6 percent) had dropped dramatically

(emboldening mine)

Add to all that the cost of real estate, and something's gonna happen.

I liked the title of this book, and the picture on the cover. I have not read it, but I thought it illustrative of living in Vancouver today.

the soapbox 1.7 Ghz

I know, I said Sunday would be the soap box. I'm a day late, and more than a couple of dollars short.

A report on CBC radio today said that Vancouver house prices rose by some 14% yoy. No link. I heard it, and I wouldn't lie to you.

If I had jumped in when I thought things were already overpriced, I would be up a hundred grand or so. I would probably find it hard to sell though, so I have no regrets. None.

Edmonton is up ~50% yoy (you can have it). Windsor is down, and St. John's lost "value". It's just here that things are really insane. Really insane.

There seem to be a lot of for sale signs littering the cityscape, but quite a few have sold stickers on them. Quite a few don't.

I heard on CBC a few days ago, someone saying that there is still about $8Bn in non-residential construction lined up for Alberta and BC - mostly new office buildings in Calgary. No detail on that, because I heard it from afar, and in passing. (Is the RAV line that much over-budget?)

Is it safe to think that when they start crowing about non-residential construction in Calgary, that things might be starting to look dicey here?

Did I mention, ever, that I think there is a bubble?

A pretty bubble.

skulking

Well, I've been skulking about, not posting much - blaming it on new fatherhood...



It is true - it has stolen my "time", but I have also been at somewhat of a loss for words in discussing the RE scene in Van. these days.

We all know it will crash - even the bullish amongst us. But when? Will it crash like the gas prices - dream on... There is something in the water, I think.

Anecdotally; business sucks lately. Decidedly un-busy. My income relies on discretionary spending, and it seems to be in decline. Not just me, but others in the same business are reporting similar results.

Restaurants seem less busy, stores seem less busy. New car sales are on the decline. Anything else?

On a bright note, condo hype is doing really well. If you haven't checked it out yet, it is a recommended read. If only I was so funny, well read, and had a little more time...

I am going to start opening up the soapbox again because I think that the commentary is often better than the scribing - here, and other places too. So think of what you want to say, and in the spirit of Speakers' Corner in Hyde Park, London, Sundays will be your chance to have your say.

I noticed last week that the hit counter here was 6's right across the board. What does that mean? Not much, really, but that some of you are still interested in my pontification(s). I will try to satisfy that interest in the coming days.

Being a new parent does indeed change one's life. I'm so tired...

condohype. a hip, modern, urban commentary

condohype

There's a new blog online - condohype, and it's very worth perusing. Thanks to the pope for pointing it out. Like the pope, I really like the maxim of disown the lifestyle. I'll put a permo-link up in the sidebar.

It's clean, it's sarcastic, and the author thinks like me do. I actually have a little bit of blog envy. I bet it's written on a Mac...

I'm such a Luddite - stuck in the stone age of PC and blogger beta/binary/new blogger/old blogger/Google cookie heaven. Hey Pal, I don't do PayPal. Get yer friggin' cookie off my browser. One of these days, I will get with the programme.

Back to condohype - it's a good read. Check it out. Most of you probably knew that before I did.

the grab bag # 6, and, Armageddon approaches

El ... es el monoculo de Jehova

Wow! I can't believe what a baby does to your brain, heart, back, life. Busy. Busy. Busy. Busy. Busy.

There is not so much going on that is of note anyway. Inventory seems to be climbing. Prices are weird (though, there are now 8 SFH properties for $400 K, or less in East Van., where there were but two a couple of months ago).

The rain is gone for now, birds are singing, and I don't really care anymore where this madness goes. How about this?

Man shoots at condo for blocking out sunlight

Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:10AM EDT
TOKYO (Reuters) - A Japanese man angry that a new apartment building put his house in the shade was arrested after shooting about a dozen bullets at it with a competition rifle.

Police said the man apparently fired at the 11-storey building, which was completed last October, from a window on the third floor of his house, a distance of roughly 164 feet.

"He felt the building management didn't take a sincere attitude toward his complaints that the building was keeping sunlight from reaching his house," a police spokesman in the western city of Kyoto said.

Nobody was injured in the shootings but walls, railings and two lights on the apartment building were damaged.

When the Japanese lose their cool, you know there is a problem - either with their heads, or their environment. Maybe both... Condo rage! And they pay you to borrow money there. Pretty much, anyway.

I can't help but wonder when construction rage begins here. I know that I despise my new neighbour, and his house isn't even finished yet. I won't get into it now, but it has been going on for 5 months, and I'm sick of flat tires, garbage in my yard, and up and down the street, destroyed trees, fences, and on and on. Not to mention the darkness on one side of my house where the light is blocked by his monstrosity.

On a more humourous note, the Jehovah's Witnesses have been out in force - with 5 over the weekend. I was lucky enough to be hurrying out with the baby and mother during one onslaught of 4 in two pairs, but the fifth caught me cold with a coffee in hand. I'm a pretty gregarious guy, but I was on my way to work, so I pretended not to speak English, and responded in Spanish that I was "muy occupado ahorra". Just my luck, she was fluent in Spanish, Portuguese, French and English, so there was no escape.

She had a funky hat though, and a pleasant demeanour, so we entertained each other in 4 different languages. I think she was a rich immigrant, but cagey. I asked her about the bubble, and she told me of Jehovah. I told her I loved her, and she smiled.

So that's it. The bubble may not burst, but the greedy will sink beneath the earth, and I will be in Paradise (because of my love, and all). The Devil is behind the bubble. I was told so in four languages.

She spoke in tongues...

I will be back when I can, pero estoy muy occupado ahorra. Hasta luego.

riot vancouver 2010 - responding to the schmolympdicks

I received this unsolicited e-mail yesterday. It is a press release from Vancouver's Only magazine (formerly Terminal City). I did not object too much to the "spam" - some spam is ok, and I liked the subversive tone of this one. They are offering up a free "Riot 2010" countdown widget as antithesis to the Schlonglimpdicks' countdown crock o' shite.

With regrets from them (elitist schmoes) the widget only works on Mac.

Feel free to spam Chuck Ansbacher though, he did include his e-mail address. Be nice - it is a fairly cool on-line mag. And, they are pissed off with the Schmo-limpdicks too. I am hearing more and more disgust about that every day. I'm gonna finally pop, and write a manifesto on that some day.

The Only Magazine Riot Vancouver 2010 Widget

Riots are nothing new to the Rainy City. Take, for example, the Victory Square "work camp" riot of 1935, the Gastown pot riots of the '60s, the Guns 'n Roses riot of 2002, and, of course, the Stanley Cup riots of '94. On July 2, 2003, Vancouver won the bid to host the 2010 Olympic Winter Games. An honour indeed, the city responded with celebration, but also with groans. Anyone honest with themselves admitted there were problems to overcome, but it was thought that these were just the growing pains of a developing city on the verge of becoming "world class." But Vancouver, a city with the most poverty stricken postal code in North America, could only celebrate for so long. It turns out five rings aren't enough to hold this glass city together. The cost of the Games are vastly over budget and diverting money from social programs. There is a constant worry the mountains won't see the kind of snowfall necessary for an Olympic host. Homelessness has increased and is projected to continue. Some citizens want answers. None have been given. Despite continued protests and lucid studies outlining how the Games are damaging the city, the Vancouver Olympics Committee decided to celebrate some more recently. They built a nice digital clock to countdown the remaining three years until the Opening Ceremonies. You may have noticed this monolithic eyesore, seemingly dropped from the sky onto the lawn of the Vancouver Art Gallery, missing only a crowd of curious apes and a lobbed bone to complete the scene. There it sits, ticking away in its clean, tasteful glass case under the watchful eye of a hired security guard. Ticking along as the city surrounding it succumbs to the pressures of transition. Building construction rumbles from nearly every corner, marginalised citizens are turned out onto the streets in lucrative grabs for real estate, and money is being exchanged at a drunken pace. Under these circumstances, the countdown and the clock have many symbolic meanings, and Only Magazine sees a situation ripe for public opinion to boil over the edges of decency. Of course, we would never incite or even encourage anyone to riot. If you hadn't thought of it before now you're probably not going to be one of the people there. However, history has taught us that if (when) there is a civil disobedience, it won't be the issues that are blamed, and it won't be all the poor decisions made leading up to the Opening Ceremonies either. So if the police need a scapegoat, Only Magazine volunteers for the job. We love attention. In the spirit of being subversive without actually having to leave your computer, Only Magazine gives you a Widget so you can smash the state and read the Google at the same time. Dissent from your laptop. The Only Magazine Riot Vancouver 2010 Widget.*

Signed,
Only Magazine

*Seriously, Only Magazine does not endorse rioting.

- Official Press Release -
-- Chuck Ansbacher
Managing Editor
Only Magazine
#611 142 - 757 West Hastings
Vancouver, BC
V6C 1A1
onlymagazine.ca

no more heroes

off topic/on topic, vhb, cap'n america and dyspepsia

Captain America assassinated by sniper after 66 years of comic history

NEW YORK (AP) - Holy home-icide, Batman!

Captain America is dead! Assassinated, in fact, as he walks into a federal courthouse in New York, under arrest and in handcuffs, headed to his arraignment for refusing to sign the government's Superhero Registration Act and forcibly revealing his true identity.

It's eerie! Is there a connection to the Legend of VHB?

A sniper, firing a high-powered rifle from a rooftop, hits the famed red, white and blue leader of the Real Estate Avengers with three bullets and escapes the scene, leaving the weapon behind Oswald-style, as bears and Captain VHB's military escort cope with chaos in the streets.

What does this mean? Can the pulverizing patriot really be dead, shot down on the courthouse steps after years of battling villains from Scameron S'more to the Red Velvet? Will the killer or killers be captured?

The only way to find out, says Dan Buckley, president and publisher of Marvel Entertainment, is to "read the book" as the story line unfolds.

Jeez-us. It is rumoured that VHB has left the city (I can't blame him for that), and Cap'n America has been assassinated.

I just can't take it any more.

I got into blogging on RE a bit late (the story of my life), and really enjoyed myself doing it. I am not giving up just yet, but changes in my life have certainly curtailed my posting.

Over all, I am quite jaded, disgusted, and just a little bemused. My wife and I have been muttering about going away after 19 years of living here, but as my daffodils bloom, the trees begin to leaf, the robins hop around for my amusement, and the news of the weather in the rest of the country is FRIGID, I wonder where we'll go. Brazil? Portugal? France? Victoria? I dunno... All I know is that I am a bit long in the tooth to sign up for a 100 year mortgage, and have too much sense to do so anyhow. I've got an accomodating downpayment ready to go, but I might as well have nothing - prices here being what they are.

I'm disgusted by the Olympic crap, the Olympic toilet ring, the Olympic ring-around-the-collar, Flash, the traffic, the transit, the municipal guvmint, the provincial guvmint, the hubris and stupidity, the federal guvmint, mossy cars, Cuban exiles, avian flu and beeswax. I oughtn't be feeling so, but I am. The assassination of Cap'n Amurikkka just tears it for me though.

I will continue to post here, but it will be at a much slower pace. Once or twice a week... I may get more excited if things change soon.

the pope seems to be weary of this sordid spectacle too.

The laughs here have become hollow, forced, and much more rare. I'm not so sure I want to live in such a wanton place as Vancouver anymore.

My apologies to the original author for the hack job.

EDIT: the pope does not plan on packing in his blog any time soon. I regret the mis-representation.

frothing at the fingertips

What's he so happy about? Did he get a free kite? Or is he the nephew of the Chairman?

Thanks to the pope for the cool picture! Read his rant.

Thanks to black'n'brownedout for this link.

Inflated by the Olympic spirit

THE transformation of China's capital over the past few years has been astonishing. This year the effect will be giddying...Amid an Olympics-fuelled frenzy, Beijing's economy is booming and its house prices soaring. Many fear their return to earth will be bumpy.

Ah. What me worry? You can't lose. And I'm so giddy, I can't think straight anyhow.

Olympic cities usually experience an economic surge before the games. And with under 18 months to go before the games open in Beijing, China's economy as a whole is growing nearly as fast as Beijing's: 10.7% last year compared with the capital's 12% (its eighth consecutive year in double digits). Central-government leaders worry that the pace could be reckless, but are loth (sic) to apply the brakes hard.

I'm too indolent to look up the stats for how much our economy has grown, but it seems to me that I heard that it was in the neighbourhood of 3%. That's crazy growth in Beijing!

Communist Party ... leaders will be trying to stress how much in sympathy they are with the suffering of ordinary citizens.

Oh, so solly full you! Throw the dogs a bone.

For the past two years, the central government has introduced a series of measures aimed at cooling property markets in Beijing and elsewhere. These have included new taxes on property deals and higher mortgage downpayments. Last month new restrictions were imposed on property purchases by foreigners. In Shanghai, these moves have achieved some success (diverting speculative money to the bubbling stockmarket), but not in Beijing. Last year property development still accounted for more than half of all investment in the capital.

So where will the money go now? Off-shore. Vancouver sounds good. Golden Mountain. We buy it all. It's a global frenzy of liquidity. The only bright light that I can see is that the sub-prime market is melting down, and will take a lot more down with it. It's sad that the idea of a depression can seem like a bright light isn't it?

Speculators are betting that property prices will benefit from the tightness of land supply

Oh fulak! The land shortage thing. It had to be there with the friggin' Olympics thing, didn't It? Can I even type Olympics without being sued for copy-right infringement?

Moreover, in order to keep the city clear of unsightly cranes and dust-billowing building sites during the games, Beijing has been discouraging new construction projects. This has reduced the expected supply of properties and helped to drive up prices. Last year the total floor space of new housing projects was nearly 6% less than in 2005. For poorer residents the outlook was particularly grim. The floor area of newly launched low-cost housing projects was down by nearly 57%.

I think that loathesome regime is doing better than our own loathesome regime regarding housing the poor. Slavery never really went away, but now people are proud to be mortgage slaves.

According to press reports this week, the central government recently called a special meeting to discuss ways to tame Beijing's property market. Among its suggestions was an increase in the housing supply.

Is it just me?, or does that not make sense? Just above, they were moaning about the shortage of land, but now they want to build even more. Look what happened here. Thousands of new condo's, houses and townhouses, and the market just keeps on exceeding itself.

Officials estimate that the Olympics have been contributing more than two percentage points to Beijing's annual growth since 2003. After the games, they insist, the city's new infrastructure and additional glamour (including the egg-shaped theatre, which hopes to attract international stars) will help keep the economy rolling. The flow of investment will be sustained, they say, by further infrastructure development, and by the pent-up demand for property, which will be supported by a continuing large influx of migrants from the countryside.

La la la. Guns and roses and sweet dreams in a shovel. Pent up demand, and glamourous peasants flocking to Beijing on their ways to Aurean Mountain to partake in our Aquarian Sporting Event, in the town between Pemberton and Squamish, in the year between 2009 and 2011. (That is as clear as I can be, because it seems that the season between fall and spring has been copy-righted - along with quite a few other words and place names - including that word for the distraction involving boards, cards and chance, hockey, basketball, head, etc.. The one that starts with a G, and has an A, an M, an E, and an S.)

But some observers are worried. ...two Beijing academics...said the end of the Olympics would coincide with a cyclical downturn in China's economy, exacerbating the risk of a post-Olympics slump in the capital. Beijing's Olympics-related spending of around $35 billion, they calculated, would make up more than 43% of the total for all the games since 1976. This could make the post-Olympics investment downturn all the more pronounced—especially if the speculators are busy bailing out.

No worries here though, that kinda shite does not happen here. And, there aren't that many speculators...

So, I think that we are competing with the City of Beijing for the place that everyone wants to be. And we don't have no stinking French-designed, egg-shaped theatre to attract international stars. We couldn't even give the Ford Theatre enough business to keep it going. Beijing is building a mag-lev train system for it's festival, and the network is planned country-wide. We get the RAV, lose BC Rail, and watch almost weekly derailments. Third World Class.

Excuse my cynical rant. I'm tired. I will have another rant for you in the coming days.

mortgage defaults

bcbuds sent me this link (thanks buds).

New Data Show That Nontraditional Loans Are BeginningTo Haunt Borrowers With Midlevel Credit; Prime Still Fine

The mortgage market has been roiled by a sharp increase in bad loans made to borrowers with weak credit. Now there are signs that the pain is spreading upward.

Borrowers who take out Alt-A mortgages are considered less risky than subprime borrowers because of their higher credit scores. But as the housing market cooled and loan volume declined, some lenders lowered their standards for Alt-As. Now a rising number of borrowers who took out these loans are running into trouble.

We will be hearing the same here soon enough, me thinks.

The company cut back on riskier loans and began relying more on analytical tools to verify a borrower's income and creditworthiness.

What a great idea. Let's use some analysis and verification.

As in the subprime sector, the riskiest loans are those made to home buyers who put little, if any, money down and don't document their income or assets.

CMHC thinks it's a great idea to back 0% down loans - with our tax dollars. Will heads roll when it goes sideways? Scameron jumped ship. Did he see his head rolling?

The mortgage industry is battling a rash of cases in which borrowers, loan officers and appraisers collude in providing false information to induce lenders to advance more money than homes are worth.

That sounds very similar to what has been going on here. I think that the term was "liar loans".

I think we are heading for a real mess - and fast. Your thoughts?