Tuesday, January 02, 2007

blogger sign-in, etc.




As you will have noticed, I discontinued anonymous comments by popular demand. Some have posted anonymously elsewhere, saying that Blogger will not let them sign in. The problem is (I think) that Blogger is now out of beta, and it seems to be a Google affair now (until the anti-trust actions start - anyhow.). Thus you need a Google account (I think).

If anyone wants a G-mail address, I have 100 invitations, and if you send me an e-mail at vanunreal@gmail.com, I will send you an invite.


Poll results thus far:

The uberbear/bull is tied at about 4% each of the votes.

Flat/stagnant are at about 15%

Marginal declines (less than 10%) at about 38%

Notable declines (10% -25%) at about 35%

Unscientific to be sure (I did set the poll so that one can only vote every 7 days - so as not to skew results), but it seems as if the preponderance feels that there will be declines.

I think that we will see some panic selling the in spring, but I have a feeling that this could take a while, as reality sets in. The Ego is a powerful force, and admitting defeat is hard - especially when a lot of money is involved (I think this applies to both camps).

Something else that I have been thinking of is the possibility of downward pressure on construction wages as things complete, and with the importation of off-shore labour. It seems to be too foggy to outlook very far, and I think that there might be a confusing time ahead.

8 comments:

patriotz said...

Reduced labour and material costs will make no difference in the short run. However they do affect the long run supply function. Projects that would be unprofitable in a falling price environment may become profitable. Result: more supply, prices fall even more.

bc_cele said...

I don't think there will be wide spread panic. The US seems to be in a Mexican Standoff right now and I think this will happen here as well. To be sure, there may be some panicked sellers who are forced to sell, but most will be sitting tight with dreams of how much they'll make on a DTSE crack shack.

patriotz said...

Places like NYC and Seattle might still be in a standoff, but others like Florida, Cal Central Valley, and Phoenix certainly are not. The builders are getting the hell out of Dodge and they don't care how many owners get trampled. Just a matter of time before the rest of the US gets inventory overload and follows.

We'll see how well the local speculators keep their nerve when things get really ugly down south.

Gianni33 said...

Just trolling around again, I was wondering about Utah's real estate market, since they held the last Winter Olympics in North America. Here is what I found (Kinda old article, but found it amusing):

http://tinyurl.com/ydxys9

"Here’s the most recent story about the Utah market from the Salt Lake Tribune. They mention that some areas have appreciated more than 40% during the last twelve months, but don’t let that fool you into thinking that the market is headed for a bubble. It’s not- and here are some reasons why:

First, the Utah market is not only appreciating- it’s correcting from the last few years of being flat while the rest of the country went up in value.

Hello? Correcting upwards? Flat the last few years? Didn't you have the OLYMPICS? Wasn't Utah showcased to the WORLD?

Secondly, being undervalued has brought in some investors, but most of the homes are being sold to homeowners. When markets get too many investors buying and flipping properties, like what’s happened in Vegas the last couple years, the appreciation is hollow. It’s self-created by the market and doesn’t have a solid foundation, so eventually the market has to correct downward. Utah’s market has not been mainly because of investors.

Sounds like a place I know...

Job growth is stronger than normal now and will continue to be during the next few years.(..)

Utah has the youngest median age of any state in the nation. (..)

There is still room to grow. Many areas around the country are running out of room, but Utah is still relatively rural and the metro areas, (..) still have some elbow room that allows new communities to be built and allows for homes in the first time buyer range to be built, getting these kids and young families started in the market so they can later move up (and pay more) for a future home.

And here I thought land shortages make prices go up?

What this all means is that the overall market in Utah is healthy and will continue to be strong for a while, regardless of what happens on the coasts, where most media is focused."

Gianni33 said...

RUN FOR THE HILLS!!

http://vancouver.craigslist.org/rfs/257182889.html

6- presale condo assignments in Richmond B.C.5- 1 bedroom 1-2 bedroom
completion Feb.2008.Only 10% downpayment until closing in Feb.2008
$500 assignment fee.
www.lotusliving.ca
Building sold out.
Starting $315,000.

Buy all 6 and get a great deal.All offers looked at.

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