Sunday, December 31, 2006

polling - no trolling

image from

I'm starting out 2007 with a new, untried feature - polls.

We'll see how this works out.

What will happen to Vancouver's housing market in 2007?
Continued, rapid appreciation.
Marginal declines (less than 10%)
Notable declines (10% - 25%)
Buyers' heaven (declines of 25%- 50%)
Who cares? - I'm a bloated flipper - becoming more bloated.
Free polls from


Uncertain Buyer said...

You should revise the last option, it will instigate trolling.

I am already seeing 5% declines in my neighbourhood. Maybe it's seasonal, maybe it's not.

solipsist said...

Thanks for posting u.b.

You are probably right, but thankfully, this blog has been fairly free of trolls. I just thought that it was good to be inclusive (grin).

I think that we are all waiting with bated breath, but as indicated by the poll link on your blog, it seems as if the tide to the south has very much turned - as far as psychology is concerned.

There is a lot of burn-out with the whole subject.It's hard to gauge (for me, at least). That is why it is good to see VHB back at the fray. He does demonstrative analysis, whereas I just go by my gut, and knowledge of the past.

Uncertain Buyer said...

Looks like the MSNBC Poll is up to 61% for further declines in the States.

I agree this is a tiresome subject, but there is a lot at stake. Housing is extremely expensive and will take a person his/her whole life to pay off.

Getting rooked into buying someones over priced home, in this market, will take a life time to pay for. Especially painfull when prices drop, like we are seeing in the US.

It's not if they will drop, it's when they will drop.

patiently waiting said...

I voted for marginal declines. It will be at or close to a 10 percent decline. I'm not going to expect my dream declines and become unnecessarily disappointed. This is going to take time. I'm planning to buy in late 2008 to early 2009.

solipsist said...

That sounds reasonable patiently waiting. I am a bit more impatient, and predicted VE SFH down 10% - 15%, and VW SFH down 5% over at VHB's.

I will not even think of buying before the rent/own multiple is in the same area. If that never happens, I will entertain other ideas, but for now, I will remain a slightly discontented renter (with other interesting options).

noturaveragebear said...

I voted marginal decline. I believe the first six months of this year will be stagnant as there are a lot of people still in denial. but I do believe that things will blow up in the next half of 2007. The big declines will start and by 2008 we will notice that prices are quite lower from peak values.I predict this correction will take years to play out.

solipsist said...

Yes nuab, my logical side feels the same, but I am an eternal optimist in my sunny afternoon in July world. Hope springs eternal.

Van Housing Blogger said...

My sense is similar to what y'all have said - nothing dramatic in 2007 most likely. In the US, the 'silent spring' of 2006 made lots of people wonder what was going on. Many think it will be temporary. It will take a second disasterous spring selling season and maybe a third to bleed the positive psychology dry.

noturaveragebear said...

Not to get off topic solipist but I wish you added the Mccondo pic for best pic of the year in the previous post. I went back to van for christmas and I came across it. I forgot all about it. I couldn't start laughing.

solipsist said...

Good observation nuab.

I have been dreadfully pressed lately, and completely over-looked that. I was going to put Pamderson up for bc_cele too, but had not the time to put it all into context, and do a proper post. I will do a 2.0 version ASAP.

Thanks for posting all.

patriotz said...

I would have drawn the line between "marginal" and "significant" at 7% or so.

Patiently Waiting, have more patience. Look at history. In both the 80's and 90's downturns recovery didn't begin until 4 years after the peak. And this time around we're looking at the biggest housing bust (post-Depression) ever.

patiently waiting said...

Well, if we're not well on our way to buying by 2009, we'll be leaving Vancouver. I turn 40 that year and my wife and I hope to have started a family by then. We can wait patiently, but not forever.

My theory is that even if we haven't reached bottom by then, it will have fallen by a good 30% or so...enough for us.

Gianni33 said...

we've already seen 5-10% in a lot of areas.. I voted marginal, I don't see prices going down by much more than 25% this year...

bc_cele said...


I think you posted one of the best reasons why I believe that there will only be marginal declines, and that is that projects such as Yaletown, are not being completed on time. Until the new supply floods the market, I really don't see to much decline. However, once the over-supply builds up then builders will start slashing prices and this will have a domino effect.

patiently waiting said...

My understanding is that some projects that were to complete 2006 will complete in 2007. We will see some new buildings in 2007 which will have some effect on the market. Nonetheless, I think the new buildings are just the icing on the cake. Depreciation will start regardless (in fact, it has).

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