Friday, December 15, 2006
wake me in the spring
Well, not much seems to happening here. There is a change in the wind, but the market seems to be asleep. No one has a clue as to what will happen, but it seems as if things are finally turning around. There have been some remarkable price reductions, but the prices have been so remarkable, that's not saying a lot.
It's hard to make sense of what's happening by looking at Rob Chipman's numbers (for me, anyhow), but Rob is starting to sound a bit bearish (no slight intended Rob). A few choice quotes from his blog - "half full/half empty? These days I'm tending to think half empty", and, "I don't see increased strength in sales in the New Year." and, "I see the current market as ominous (certainly not as in "worse than 1981", but still, ominous)". Rob is accused by some as being biased, and even dishonest, but I don't agree with those assertions. I think that Rob has been pretty objective, and is still thus.
Set your alarm clocks for the spring, and the bulls/flippers/speculators ought to be prepared to be very alarmed - in my humble opinion. A rude awakening is in the offing.