spin

Spin it up!

Headline in the Glum and Maladroit Sunday declares Bidding wars disappearing in Vancouver.

It sounds like good news at first. Or is it bad news? Depends on the spin.

I liked this caveat -

Nobody is talking about a crash. Limited land supply, population growth, the 2010 Winter Olympics and a strong regional economy all point to long-term healthy housing demand. But there is a sense the air is leaking out of what had become an overinflated market.

I don't know about that, a lot of people are talking about a crash. The only ones not talking about it are the drunk on appreciation of the last few years, and the just plain drunk. Okay, the vested interests in general. And there is that limited land thing, the Olympics, and the (temporarily) healthy regional economy.

I like this one too -

“On the Labour Day weekend, I sold a house in Shaughnessy for $300,000 over listing [price] with 10 offers,” Macdonald Realtors agent Lorne Goldman says.

Great, 2 1/2 months ago a home sold for over asking. Well maybe they listed at $500k under assessed. Then the aside -

“Those days are becoming less frequent.”

I smell the first inkling of capitulation there.

But anybody hoping that prices may come back within reach for first-time buyers is likely to be disappointed. Slowdown or no, Vancouver real estate remains too expensive for many.

Yet they talk about population growth as part of the formula. Is it possible that there can not be a first time buyers' market anymore? Is Vancouver just going to go into stasis? A ridiculous assertion.

A search for a single-family, detached home under $600,000 on Vancouver's west side yields three listings all on land leased from the Musqueam Indian Band... A heritage home in Mount Pleasant is listed at $799,000, despite having suffered a fire last year.

here they resort to list prices (as if they will get those now), and focus on VW. They're talking like a DJ, but not really saying anything (neither am I, but I am having fun).

“Affordability is a big issue in Vancouver. And affordability is likely getting worse at a [September] rate of increase of nearly 17 per cent. Because there's very little chance that the income growth will grow at the same rate,” says Craig Alexander, deputy chief economist with TD Economics. He anticipates the rate of price increases will continue to slow.

“Twelve months from now, I would bet that home price growth in Vancouver would be in the single digits. That's not a terrible outcome, that's a healthy income.”

Try negative double digits boffin. When will we see them start comparing to 1992 prices to show how well we are doing?

Rick Valouche, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, says the market is becoming more balanced. And this year's total sales are on track to surpass last year's record total, he says.

And Canada is on track to meet emissions reductions too.

Some buyers might be sitting on their hands as they assess whether wobbles in the U.S. housing market will affect Vancouver, says Bob Rennie, whose Rennie Marketing Systems sells Lower Mainland condominiums like proverbial hotcakes. U.S. housing prices took their biggest drop in 35 years in September.

But that won't happen here. Why?

But after a few months, those buyers will be back in, Mr. Rennie predicts, driven by factors that include the coming the 2010 Olympics, a shortage of land and the perception of Vancouver as a safe place to invest.

Indeed. Much safer than Jalalabad or Pyongyang. Oh, and did you notice? Rennie drags out the Olympics and the shortage of land again. I guess everything will keep on going up - until we face the shame of not being able to host the Olympics because of a lack of snow. Salt Lake City will benefit though. Probably start another housing boom over it.

His firm also recently sold 40 per cent of the units in a new Burnaby high-rise over a weekend.

Didn't they used to brag about selling out in a weekend? I guess people are not as bold in Burnaby. Does anyone have any Craigslist reports on what is being flipped in OMA?

And finally -

Mr. Webber, who works in commercial real estate, is confident he'll sell his house, a nearly new, three-bedroom detached townhouse in waterfront Steveston. And he doesn't sound overly dismayed that he's had to drop the price from an original $679,000 to $659,900, which is still well above what he paid three years ago.

This does not sound like a slowing of appreciation, this sounds like a reversal. I guess it depends on how you spin it.

Excuse the cut and paste patchwork, and the lack of direction, I have just been hankering to use the cool animated gif, and have been really busy.